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submitted 3 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] [email protected] 41 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

If Iran is to retaliate against US military bases, what ballistic missiles will they use? US military bases are much closer to Iran (and Iraq for the Popular Mobilisation Forces) than Israel is, which allows for a lot more different missiles to be used. Now all of these missiles are more modern, solid fueled ballistic missiles capable of maneuvering within the earth's atmosphere with a seperate warhead or Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (category 3 on the graphic below), and all of them (except Dezful) can be fitted with electro optical seekers for terminal guidance and improved accuracy (often called Mobin or Basir variants), or for use against ships. So we can expect significantly higher accuracy over the shorter ranges, especially if the Basir variants are used.

Missiles with maximum range listed:

  • Fateh-110 series: 300km.
  • Fateh 313: 300-400km.
  • Raad 500/Tankeel: 500km.
  • Zulfiqar: 700km
  • Dezful: 1000km.
  • Qassem Basir: 1200-1300km.

Trajectory for missiles with a long enough range that they exit the earth's atmosphere, Zulfiqar, Dezful and Qassem Basir:

Possible trajectory for the missiles that don't exit earth's atmosphere, 500km range and below:

[-] [email protected] 41 points 2 weeks ago
[-] [email protected] 41 points 2 weeks ago

apparently a missile was fired from iran at haifa and now zionists are calling for a response

[-] [email protected] 41 points 2 weeks ago

I woke up pretty late today. What the fuck did I just wake up to?

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[-] [email protected] 40 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Yesterday, rural Idaho firefighters were responding to a bushfire when they were shot.

Two fire fighters dead, third wounded but stabilized after being sniped at by unknown shooter in Idaho

Suspect Idaho sniper dead, unknown cause, sherif department grabbed body and evidence as they were at risk from the fire.

It is likely the unknown shooter set the fire as bait to lure in firefighters with the intent to murder them.

Local speculation guesses shooter had ties to neo-nazis, though no information about the shooter has been released yet, due to the fact that exatly 24 years ago to the date, on June 29, 2001, firefighters participated in a training exercise in which they burned down a former security house at the Aryan Nations compound near Hayden Lake, Idaho. The house was located just a few miles from the site of Sunday's ambush.

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[-] [email protected] 40 points 2 weeks ago

Peru refuses to receive prisoners sent by the United States - Prensa Latina

Article

Lima, Jun 29 (Prensa Latina) Statements made by the Minister of Justice, Enrique Alcántara, published today, ruled out the possibility of Peru accepting an eventual request from the United States to receive detainees in that country.

Alcántara said that it would be counterproductive “to receive extradited or criminals of any other nationality in our country” and added that “this possibility does not exist because it does not comply with the current regulations” in Peru.

He also explained that Peru cannot receive inmates from other countries because its prisons are overcrowded, which is why five new prisons are being built.

He also reminded that there is only an agreement with the United States on the exchange of prisoners, only for cases in which nationals of one country who commit crimes in the other serve their sentences in their country of origin, if they so request.

The head of state thus clarified versions to the contrary citing previous statements of his that were misinterpreted, he said, and pointed out that he only affirmed that Peru does not rule out any measure that contributes to the fight against citizen insecurity.

“We were referring exclusively to the possibility of sending inmates to other countries, not to receive them,” he said about the possibility, under analysis, of sending very dangerous criminals from here to a maximum security prison in El Salvador.

He added that the Government has not made any decision on this issue and is analyzing the conditions under which prisoners could be sent to El Salvador for a certain period of time, if the Peruvian Constitution and laws allow it.

Jurists and former prison authorities consider this possibility unfeasible due to the high cost that Peru would have to pay to the Central American country, besides the existence of legal obstacles.

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[-] [email protected] 40 points 2 weeks ago

IMF wild child Argentina seeks waiver on FX reserves misses - and will probably get it - Reuters

Article

BUENOS AIRES, June 25 (Reuters) - Argentina, the International Monetary Fund's long-term problem child and biggest debtor, once again needs to seek forgiveness: this time for falling short on foreign currency reserve build-up targets linked to a new $20 billion deal.

The South American country is likely to get it, too, analysts and former officials said. Argentina struck its latest deal - its 23rd - with the Washington-based lender in April, needed to help roll over an earlier $44 billion deal and give the government of libertarian Javier Milei financial firepower to undo capital controls.

The front-loaded deal came with economic targets attached to unlock further funds, including on inflation and rebuilding depleted central bank foreign currency reserves, that were deep in the red when Milei took office in late 2023. Milei has tempered inflation with tough austerity and guided the country out of a recession, but accumulating dollars has proven tough, leaving levels short of those demanded by the IMF.

However, former government and IMF officials said that Milei had done enough to gain some leeway, with his cost-cutting having overturned years of deep fiscal deficits, winning over markets and gaining plaudits from IMF leaders.

"I think they will forgive them even if they (the IMF) then ask for more later," Claudio Loser, former IMF director for the Western Hemisphere, told Reuters.

That would likely come in the form of a waiver, approving the first program review despite missed targets on reserves. An IMF team arrived in Argentina on Tuesday for that review.

Daniel Marx, former Argentine finance secretary from 1999 to 2001, told Reuters that the next disbursement - some $2 billion - would require the IMF to give special dispensation.

"Most likely, the disbursement won't be automatic, but it will require a waiver," he said.

"It was thought that the central bank would have intervened by accumulating reserves. This hasn't happened, at least until now."

The Ministry of Economy and presidency did not respond to a request for comment. The central bank declined to comment and said talks with the IMF technical team were just starting. The IMF pointed to a statement about its team arriving in Argentina.

Key to the waiver is Milei's strong record on the fiscal surplus with his tough "deficit zero" drive. Last week the government said it would deepen cost cutting in order to hit a surplus target of 1.6% of GDP.

Minister of Economy Luis Caputo said earlier this month reserves accumulation was no longer as important as before with a freer float for the peso currency and the central bank better financed. He flagged IMF backing for Milei's reforms.

Aldo Abram, director of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso in Buenos Aires, estimated that the country might be $500 million to $1 billion below the agreed reserves target, but it shouldn't block new funds being disbursed.

"That won't cause major problems for the Fund," he said. "I think forgiveness (the waiver) will be approved quickly and the disbursement may take a week or two."

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[-] [email protected] 40 points 2 weeks ago
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[-] [email protected] 40 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

~~I'd like to think that this ceasefire will work in Iran's favor. Iran's number one goal is, or definitely SHOULD be, creating or otherwise obtaining functional nuclear weapons. I imagine that's significantly easier to do when you aren't under bombardment. yes, I am disappointed that tel aviv hasn't been flattened yet, but the goal has to be obtaining nuclear arms. even if the supposed ceasefire only lasts a few weeks, I'm sure that time is sorely needed to focus efforts on nuke acquisition.~~

~~I'm not on board the nothing ever happens train, I still think things are happening and the ceasefire will inevitably be broken, because it's an Israeli ceasefire, it goes without saying. I will also say~~ I am a dumb krakkker amerikan ~~sitting comfy in my armchair saying "hmmm yes, of course, masterful gambit etc etc" while refreshing the news mega, so who really knows.~~

EDIT: lmao should've seen that coming

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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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