this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2025
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Image is of Colombian President Gustavo Petro giving a speech at the UN in 2022.


Trump has arrived in office with the force of an avalanche; ~~ending~~ slowing a genocide on the one hand, while simultaneously promising a total nightmare for minorities and the poor throughout and outside the United States on the other hand. [edited for clarity; I do not actually think Trump has ended the Palestinian genocide obviously, I was making a joke - but the ceasefire is a genuine improvement in conditions for millions of people right now who are on the edge of death, so it cannot be dismissed]

It's still far too early to truly compare and contrast his imperial strategy with Biden's, but initial signs show that there does appear to be somewhat of a reorientation. Biden was famous for being two-faced; ostensibly offering aid and stability, while also blowing up your pipeline to ensure you did not actually have an alternative to his idea. Trump, meanwhile, seems only really capable of aggression, threatening several "allied" nations with what may as well be sanctions because of the economic harm they'd do. I suspect we'll be debating for a long time how much of this can be attributed to the specific characteristics of Trump, or whether he merely embodies the zeitgeist of imperial decline - a wounded empire lashing out with extreme violence to try and convince everybody, including themselves, that they can still be the world imperialist hegemon.

I'll admit it: I did not believe that Trump would actually try and go ahead with putting tariffs on basically anybody who annoys him. And while the threat could still be empty in regards to countries like China and Canada, Colombia is the first indication of the potential of his strategy. Despite some fiery words from President Petro, after Trump's administration revealed the punishment if Colombia did not agree, it appears that Colombia will in fact be accepting deported migrants after all. It's funny how that works.


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 55 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)
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[–] [email protected] 55 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

US market futures down by like ~1.2%, Bitcoin down by ~5%. It looks like everyone still thinks that the tariffs are very temporary or will be removed before they have any real impact (2-3 days) on the supply chain. Impossible to say. Stocks and crypto has been very disconnected from reality (hello, $TSLA), wouldn't be surprised if it all just completely decouples and the stock market starts trading purely on vibes.

[edit] Looks like -2% down for the overall market and ~10% down for bitcoin. Nothing huge so far.

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[–] [email protected] 54 points 3 months ago (33 children)

So, I'm guessing at this point, there won't be any concerted resistance to Trump in Latin America. They're just all going to fold.

This probably also means Sheinbaum will concede to any demands made and maybe avoid getting couped.

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[–] [email protected] 54 points 3 months ago

In an interview with Breno Altman for the Brazilian news portal Opera Mundi, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said, "With Brazil, there was no crisis, there is no crisis, and there will be no crisis." "There are simply differences between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, differences with advisors; from there, from here. The duty of President Lula and President Nicolás Maduro is to understand each other for our countries, turn the page."

"The new scenario of world geopolitics, the situation of Our America, and prioritize relations between Brazil and Venezuela, peaceful relations, cooperation, brotherhood, and economic progress."

[–] [email protected] 53 points 3 months ago
[–] [email protected] 53 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (7 children)

Update on the deportation flights situation: There were two deportation flights to Guatemala City, Guatemala today, one utilising a civilian aircraft and one using a military aircraft. If we look at the flight paths of both, we can see something very interesting, the first signs of México caving into the United States' demands, but still putting up some resistance, at least for now.

First we'll start with the civilian plane. We can see that it flies a provocative flight path right along the edge of Mexican airspace for most of it's journey instead of going straight to Guatemala, just before crossing into Mexican airspace at the end. This was a very deliberate choice, and it was allowed to use Mexican airspace at the end, México gave in at the end here. Civilian aircraft carrying out deportation flights to other countries can now use México's airspace. That has now occurred.

As for military aircraft from the United States carrying out deportation flights, they still cannot use Mexican airspace. The military C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft had to fly all the way around México, just like the first two military planes to Guatemala. So México still does not allow US military aircraft to use their airspace to carry out deportation flights, at least for now.

Also, Colombia has sent one of their military transport Boeing 737 aircraft to pick up the Colombian migrants stranded in San Diego, after they made the US military aircraft turn around yesterday. So Colombia is picking up the tab here in a sense, they are having to fly their citizens home, on their own military plane, at presumably their own cost, after initially turning the US military aircraft away. I guess this is what the White House statement about "giving into all of Trump's demands" was partially about. The United States was not going to send another plane for this group of people, Colombia would have to sort it out themselves after refusing the initial plane, and Colombia will likely accept future planes, including US military aircraft, without hesitation.

If anyone is wondering what the conditions are like onboard these C-17 aircraft for the people being deported, the first images of the inside of the planes have been posted online. It appears that migrants are forced to wear masks, everyone has the same brand new blue surgical masks on. No proper seating or amenities are to be seen. All of the migrants are handcuffed as well, or about to be handcuffed, in this very picture a person is being handcuffed. Earplugs are also provided, as it's likely very loud inside the plane. Women and children are separated from the men. Armed soldiers are also onboard.

Key takeaways: México is starting to give in to the United States' demands, but still do not allow for the use of their airspace for US military aircraft carrying out deportation flights as of now, which is the key issue of contention. How long they will hold out for is anyone's guess, but I can't imagine México holding out for long, given that we can see the first signs of concessions towards the United States.

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[–] [email protected] 52 points 3 months ago

In July 2024, Panama president José Raúl Mulino said his country was formally applying to join Mercosur as an associate member. In January 2025, Panama joined Mercosur as an associate member.

[–] [email protected] 52 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

With regards to the Ukraine war and Russia's planned air attack, of which the preparations have taken place for over the past week: it seems as if tonight is the night it is taking place. The first two phases of the attack have already occurred. Right now, Russian bombers are set to be approaching the launch lines for a cruise missile attack. This is likely to be the third phase of the attack within the past few hours. If you want live updates on the situation from air raid monitoring channels, here is a mostly reliable one in English, AMK Mapping

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Ukraine tried to pre-empt this attack as usual with the launch of long range NATO guided and targeted weapons into Russian territory a few days ago (this time a Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG air launched cruise missile attack that was unsuccessful and intercepted).

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[–] [email protected] 51 points 3 months ago (2 children)

what exactly is un peacekeepers enforcement mechanism, if they just get corralled around by anyone? they like mall cop tier, instead of cop tier at least. Why have guns or anything?

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[–] [email protected] 51 points 3 months ago

Useless org rides on the coattails of effective org in the hopes that nobody will notice:
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2025/01/27/palestine-action-filton-un-intervenes/

The United Nations (UN) has formally intervened in the case of the Palestine Action ‘Filton 18‘ – currently on remand over their action at a UK-based Israel-supplying arms factory owned by Elbit Systems. The UN letter, while polite, does not pull any punches – and exposes the misuse of counter-terror laws and blatant state-sanctioned mistreatment of the activists.

[–] [email protected] 51 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Company that makes monitoring devices, for instance those of prisoners, will be scaling up to meet the demand of 'several millions'; Motley Fool, so direct from bourgeois scum's mouthpieces, probably TW for terminal neoliberalism. This puts some things into a horrible context.

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[–] [email protected] 51 points 3 months ago

These mandem going on about immigrants and a foreigner elon who has questionable legal status is pushing up on the US treasury department pigmask-parodied

[–] [email protected] 51 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Update on the deportation flights situation: Honduras gives in fully, México still standing firm and holding out, no updates for the other countries involved.

There were two US military deportation flights that took place today, which were the fifth and sixth total. The fifth flight was the usual route from the US to Guatemala avoiding México's airspace, so I won't talk about it further. The sixth flight was different, a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft, callsign RCH116, flew from Texas, United States; to Honduras, while avoiding México's airspace. This is the first military deportation flight to land in Honduras, previously Honduras only allowed these US military aircraft to use their airspace, and not to carry out deportation flights directly. Another first is that this was a combined operations between the United States' Coast Guard and Air Force, with a Coast Guard C-130J, callsign C2010, flying the first leg of the flight within the United States, from San Diego, California; to Harlingen, Texas.

As an overall update:

Countries that have allowed the United States to conduct deportation flights to them directly using US military aircraft:

Guatemala.
Ecuador.
Honduras.

Countries that allow the United States to use their airspace to conduct deportations using US military aircraft to other countries, but have not accepted US military deportation flights themselves:

Costa Rica.
Nicaragua.
Belize.

Countries that put up resistance to deportation flights using US military aircraft and turned them away ( and used their own planes for repatriating their citizens), however the United States says that they will accept military deportation flights in future (no such flights have taken place as of 31st January 2025, remains to be seen if/when any will take place):

Colombia.

Countries that do not allow the United States to use their airspace for US military aircraft deportation flights and have not accepted US military aircraft deportation flights themselves, but do allow the United States to use their airspace for civilian aircraft deportation flights to other countries:

México.

Overall as the threat of tarrifs and sanctions looms, more and more countries are relenting to the United States' demands. When I started reporting on this a week ago, only Guatemala accepted military deportation flights directly, with Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica allowing them to use their airspace, and México denying the use of their airspace. So the changes from a week ago are evident.

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[–] [email protected] 50 points 3 months ago
[–] [email protected] 50 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Colombia rejected the entry into the country of two United States military planes carrying deportees as part of President Donald Trump's crackdown on irregular immigration, a U.S. official said.

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[–] [email protected] 50 points 3 months ago (2 children)

So Al-Qassam Brigades is the armed wing of Hamas and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades is the armed wing of Fatah? I keep mixing up the two for some reason.

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