[Once] results start coming in on Election night, where’s the first place you’re looking for an indicator of over/underperformance? Bellwethers, Philly suburb counties, etc.?
The first place I’ll look will not be in a swing state. It’ll be in Indiana, where polls start closing at 6:30 EST. Obviously, it’s not a competitive state, but there are some counties inside it that could offer clues for the swing states later. Hamilton County, right outside Indianapolis, is full of fast-growing suburbs with a large number of voters with four-year degrees – this is the exact kind of place nationally that’s been moving Democratic the most in the Trump era. Hamilton was won in 2012 by Mitt Romney by 34 points, but by 2020 Trump only carried it by 7. How much bluer is it getting in ‘24? This will be relevant for later, similar suburban areas – like Chester in PA, Union in NC and Ozaukee in WI.
this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
14 points (100.0% liked)
chapotraphouse
13646 readers
1098 users here now
Banned? DM Wmill to appeal.
No anti-nautilism posts. See: Eco-fascism Primer
Slop posts go in c/slop. Don't post low-hanging fruit here.
founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
obviously not a competitive state
Cool democracy you've got there, mind if I piss on it?
A Reddit link was detected in your post. Here are links to the same location on alternative frontends that protect your privacy.