A moderator made a really good post about flux ropes here: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3947-ar14100-m8-20250531-cme-g4-watch/page/24/

Oh yes, the big ones that put on shows tend to come around fall and spring equinoxes.

G Scale: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

You can see the predictions forecast at the top of any of the NOAA Aurora dashboard pages.

Prediction oval: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

Data:

• NOAA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products-and-data
• https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/data-access
• SOHO: https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/data.html

Check NASA and ESA for boatloads more, you'll probably have to search for the specific satellites. -> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Solar_System_probes

You'll have to visit the sites of the ground stations that are shown on spaceweather to get their data as well. It's out there.

New satellites:

• https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/punch/2025/04/17/nasas-punch-mission-captures-first-images-of-sun-space/
• https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/03/12/nasa-spherex-punch-launch/82302137007/

Lmao, like I said, I've still got hope. Last I checked, NOAA was predicting a G4 (logorithmic G1-5 categories, kind of like hurricane ratings) storm at a 75% confidence through tomorrow. Look for kp 7+, southern winds, and a G4 storm rating on the main page tonight. The tool tips are really good.

Btw, the NOAA does really awesome predictive forecast maps of where you can see it, but I've caught them far beyond the oval, so it is quite conservative I think.

Yeah, there's a ton of data around and actually quite a few tools for space weather on github as well. People have been trying to figure out the nuances of solar cycles pretty intensely. Also, a new satellite was launched recently that is really powerful for solar monitoring. I'll post the links in the next comment.

You've still got time! Between 10pm and 2am are the golden hours for this sort of thing, but look north as it gets dark. Use your phone camera with a long exposure to check. :) I think we may still be quite lucky. Beware of a lot of the posts in real time there, nobody knows what's going to happen until the L1, remember, so it's a lot of guesswork! It's kind of half the fun is trying to figure out what is going on with it. The stars have to align just right, pun intended.

I am entropy.

So in general, it's satellite observations (SOHO, STEREO) for initial predictions and observations of CMEs***. CMEs are constantly happening, but in every direction, not just at us. If one is pointed at us, once the initial shock hits the L1 point* it's more predictable. That's where satellites like ACE and DSCOVR sit about 1.5 million kilometers upstream from Earth, giving us roughly 15-60 minutes of warning once a solar wind disturbance arrives there.

The shock models and reports look like this:

The flux ropes** which bring the spectacular shows come after. These twisted magnetic field structures in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produce some of the most dramatic aurora displays when they interact with Earth's magnetosphere in just the right way. Conditions like solar wind speeds, etc. affect visibility as well.

Before the L1 point it's a lot of high level guess work and modelling including ground-based solar observations and magnetometer networks, but those are more important after L1. The ground based stuff are some of the first metrics you see on the Solar Weather dashboard. After the L1 point, though, it's countdown time for the good ones. The app sends out alerts for big ones like this.

A caveat, space weather is one of those fields where there is a bit of an art to the science... The sun is a bit like a cat, we haven't quite figured out all of it's quirks and it doesn't always do what we expect it to do.

* https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrange_point

** https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flux_tube https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/flux-ropes-sun/

*** https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

The info and help icons pack a lot of info in. I used to have to pay attention to this stuff for work lol.

On that site, on the main dashboard, click the help links for explanations on each reading. For solar satellites you can see them at the bottom of the Solar activity panel at the top. You don't need any special equipment. NOAA, NASA, etc already has you covered as this stuff affects GPS, the energy grid and a million other things so they have lots of eyes on it. The satellites are usually the first to tip people off with good activity. It takes a while to learn to read it, so don't worry! I'll see if I can dig up the good forum posts that have some good explanations in a bit. The community there is amazing and super knowledgeable. If you download their app you can get alerts!

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3947-ar14100-m8-20250531-cme-g4-watch/&do=getNewComment There's a really good comment in the first 2-3 pages that explains a lot.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

Happy hunting. This is a spectacular one. :)

More discussion here: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3947-ar14100-m8-20250531-cme-g4-watch/

That shiner looks more like someone was sending him a strong message. To be a fly on the wall...