Lemmy will still be receiving stragglers. E.g. I only signed up yesterday! I only went on Reddit once every few weeks or so, and thus only just found out where my communities had migrated to. I’m sure there are many users like me who haven’t yet followed their communities to their new homes.

They might be using some smoothing, because all lines are noise-free. and the last point might just be an artifact. It looks like a constant growth

I think it is currently growing, as in more people will visit tomorrow than did today, but also it has shrank since a couple weeks ago when everyone was hyping it up as a reddit alternative and trying it out. Not everyone who came to try it has stayed.

The dip is attributable to kbin which has some weirdness around active user counts, largely because they don't keep track of them, so I'm not surprised that their numbers might vary somewhat over time.

Otherwise, yea, it'd be accurate to say that the migration wave has come to an end. Mastodon went through multiple waves over the years so we'll see what happens from here. I for one am rather happy with how lemmy (and kbin) have turned out and am not desperate that a hole bunch more people come over.

My biggest concern is that there isn't more cross talk between lemmy and mastodon, and that's because the fediverse is yet to actually do a good job of making the boundaries between platforms thinner. There are many conversations going on in parallel that would be happy to connect but can't because the fediverse hasn't worked out a way to make that work well (yet).

EDIT:

My biggest concern isn't that there isn't

As I type, it says 130k active users (updated hourly)

A one-day minor downtick isn't a trend when it's been up day-over-day for a while now. I'm sure the user counts will ebb and flow over time, but as long as the community stays healthy and the big social media companies keep being greedy, I think this platform has a good shot at long-term viability.

I think that's normal. People will try out Lemmy but if they notice that the communities they frequent doesn't have a lot of content they'll just leave back to reddit.

We can hope for organic growth but it'll take a long time (especially with how big reddit is)

I think what you're seeing is stagnation or downtrends in certain communities, but still growth. As more people come to Lemmy they are finding the instance that works the best for them. lemmy.world has the biggest user base. They will continue to grow while others shrink as people want to be where the action is. This may fluctuate or change in the future.

Those were going to leave left by now, but there are several alternatives. Lemmy didn't take all Reddit refugees.

Yeah, I see the same but the community sprawl was vast there in early June. There appears to be a pretty healthy base forming. Pruning dead communities does need to happen somehow though. A admin tool is gonna need to be likely.

That’s OK. Lemmy doesn’t need to be huge and we have had a lot of apps developed for it and there have been a lot of donations to help the platform grow. I think it is large enough now to survive and will slowly grow over time.

Just wait for the next big Reddit mistake. People will come over to Lemmy again and it will be a better place than last time.

https://the-federation.info/platform/73 -- try this one instead. Click on the major instances and then check "active users this month" or "posts" or "comments" and you'll see that it's doing quite well in terms of the content snowball.

Estimated active users is about 70k on Lemmy. Not sure about kbin. However, active on Lemmy means posted or commented, so the lurkers should be higher.

Kbin probably only has around 20k active users, Lemmy has about 70k. And I'm not sure kbin federation is working perfectly either. If you're looking for more content I'd recommend making a lemmy account, it's possible that you're not seeing everything from your kbin account.