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I hope this is just preparation for a victory lap, maybe even just mocking them now because a lot of (pro-Russia) analysts already came to a conclusion the current borders are far from sufficient. Likewise it is almost impossible to conceive Ukraine will cede unoccupied territory so again, I'm not sure what he is trying to do here other than to take a piss.
The pre-war goals, the most important being NATO neutrality? You'd be a damn fool to believe this will be enforceable without Russian troops sitting within 15km of Kiev for the rest of eternity or something like that.
Nothing about this shit-show deserves a victory lap. It was the bloodiest and most pointless mass immolation of life and livelihood since Iraq. At the absolute best, Russians get to claim a charnel house littered with depleted uranium. More likely, they'll be doing anti-insurgency across the country for decades, while the rest of Europe grows increasingly fascist and racist towards Slavs.
All wars are just a prelude to diplomacy. I think Putin is putting out interest now so he looks better on the international stage, before Biden loses the White House and Republicans come to the settlement table ready to kick this under the rug so they can pivot back to China.
NATO gets to come out of this with more money, more members, and a renewed mandate to battle its age-old nemesis. I think NATO general staff might be the ONLY folks coming out of this for the best. Maybe with the exception of the Chinese, who have finally broken through the old Sino-Soviet split and as senior partners to boot.
I don't know how many Ukrainians are left standing to do the next Pickett's Charge into Russian artillery fire. And given how easily Russian artillery has demolished critical infrastructure in and around Kiev, I hardly think they need to be west of Brovary to pose a threat.
The enforcement comes from Russian artillery placements. Donetsk will be at least as secure as Pyongyang.
That's crazy, how was this more pointless than Libya, Donbas, Afghanistan, Armenia, or Palestine? More bloody sure, but Russia's reasons for entering are justifiable for national security
Don't tell me that Russia thought getting sanctioned by the rest of the entire world and entering a proxy war in a massive country was somehow expected to be a net economic gain like everything the West has done since Iraq
Strictly by volume. I don't believe any of those reached the scale of the Russia Ukraine war in the comparatively brief time period.
Not sure what your point here is, they were dealing with the Ukrainian nazis shelling donbass for almost a decade already, at least now there is a path towards some sort of normalcy while before there wasn't? Like I'm not sure your point here this is very much a big victory for the Russian ethnic in eastern Ukraine.
You also don't seem to realize Russian popular sentiment is already very invested into the outcome of this war. It is why Putin can't be too soft, its why he was criticized when the Azov prisoners were exchanged even by regular right wing/nationalists. War support in Russia is not just a leftist cause and Russia will take pride in their "victory".
Of course that doesn't discount the human cost at all, but as I said the human cost was already there counted in the amount of missiles and shells hitting Donest city every day before the war.
The rest of EU? Everything is contingent on US support, nobody else has an army nor an economy to wage war and while they may be racist towards Slavs this is nothing but a mere continuation of the cold war.
But even more so Europe was always as much fighting among themselves as with outsiders, the EU neoliberal project is barely a generation old and the post-WW2 "normalcy" came at the cost of Germans bombing French and English/vice-versa to hell. Of course the capitalists on both sides were spared but my point is such "unity" is fickle at best historicaly it doesn't take much for European countries to go to war against each other. Also remember how Spain/Greece/Italy got fucked in 2008 by German backed EU economic policies?
The same thing will keep happening. The racism against non-whites is barely a stop gap measure, EU fascism will turn inwards first before worrying about geopolitical issues. Anyway its not like said Italian or French fascist got any military power to do anything without US help anyway. Best they can do is continue to persecute non-whites/the poor at home.
The scale of conflict has escalated significantly since then. Casualties are in the hundreds of thousands.
American popular sentiment was very invested in the outcome of the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars two years into those conflicts. I don't think that works in their favor. On the contrary, they're exposed to a backlash if they do any kind of withdrawal or suffer another nasty run of casualties or tie the conflict back to a new economic downturn.
For the time being. But a big role of the Bush Era State Department and beyond has been prodding EU/Middle Eastern states to arm up and get into these territorial fights. Turning European and Arab allies (and more recently Pacific states) into armed outgrowths of the US-based MIC. As fascist movements throughout Central Europe build up in popularity, and as states ramp up the size and scope of their domestic police forces, its easy to see conflict accelerate into border clashes and then open war.
That's exactly what happened in Ukraine between 2006 and 2021. First, police forces ramped up. Then the conflict flared up into a decade long civil war. Finally, as the western bloc gained territory in Donetsk and the fighting spilled over the border, the conflict went international.
Why would this not happen in Poland or Hungary or Italy or Germany? Turkey is already in the thick of it and could easily be the next domino to fall. Syria almost tipped into civil war and international conflict thanks to US interventions. There's nothing magical about these Western states that would prevent pogroms against Africans, Arabs, Slavs, and other Asian cohorts (particularly the Chinese) that would in turn flare up into wholesale street fighting and eventual interstate conflicts.
I absolutely agree. But I don't think the Russia-Urkaine war backstopped any of it. I only see it as the latest in a string of border classes and ethnic purges that Europeans will be conducting for the next century.
Fascism never just stops inside the borders of a state. As soon as refugees start fleeing the state and businesses suffer and neighboring territories see attacks on their ex-pats as an attack on themselves, the conflict grows in scope.
Russia-Ukraine is the model for the future.
Worth a read
I haven’t finished thinking about it, but the idea of land redistribution to veterans as a way to stabilize the initial occupation of the western ukraine is interesting if nothing else.