news

🇹🇷(Turkey): Erdoğan has held large rallies in support of Palestinians, and true to his political style, has issued harsh condemnations of Israel and promised to ‘declare the state a war criminal’. The country has recently recalled its ambassador to Israel, but refused to sever ties. Many analyst state that local elections are coming up in the country and Erdoğan is appealing to his voter base. Turkey is still providing oil and food to Israel and is allowing the transfer of other goods (including from Azerbaijan). Many say Erdoğan is using the moment to force the USA into negotiations on other issues (Syria, F-35s etc.) to keep the country outside a war.

🇪🇬(Egypt): The country is in a challenging position, initially it had seen widespread demonstration’s in support of Palestine, but fearing a Tahrir 2.0 the government crackdown on protests. At the start of the conflict, there was heavy pressure by the US and Israelis on Egypt to take in over a million refugees from Gaza, however the government adamantly refused. Israel has also offered to pay off the entirety of Egypt’s debt (likely with American money) in return for taking refugees. The country is in intense negotiations to allow more aid in to Gaza via the Rafah border, and has privately reprimanded US officials for not doing everything they can to resolve the humanitarian crisis. The government understands it is at a cross road, it does not want to take refugees as it perceives this as ethnic cleansing by Israel and a security threat, but knows Israel’s military strategy will lead to this outcome. The Egyptian PM has also stated the country is 'prepared to sacrifice millions of lives to ensure that no-one encroaches on its territory’. Analysts have said that there is a possibility that if pushed to the brink, Egypt may have to militarily challenge Israel in order to preserve its own strategic interests.

🇱🇧(Lebanon/Hezbollah): In a recent speech, Sayyed Nasrallah stated the Hezbollah is at war with Israel since the 8th of October and that the group will increase its attacks and go to a full-spectrum war with Israel if either Lebanon is attack or Hamas faces defeat in Gaza; it has also threatened American naval assets in the region. Nasrallah is trying to manage a very complex situation, the Lebanese government and other Arab states have demanded it stops escalation and other groups such as the Druze are creating domestic challenges for it, but Nasrallah understands that inaction at this stage would dismantle the ‘Axis of Resistance’ deterrence. The group has recently used more advanced weapons such as drones and surface-to-surface missiles, which indicates escalations will not stop. The Lebanese government has also prepared wartime contingencies and is preparing for war. There is a level of co-ordination with Iran and allegedly Iranian fighters and military personnel are already stationed within the country.

🇮🇷/🇮🇶/🇾🇪/🇸🇾(Iran/Iraq/Yemen/Syria): I am putting these countries together as the military and diplomatic strategy between them is more-or-less aligned. Iran is the nexus of the ‘Axis of Resistance’, it is working diplomatically to avoid a war and has met with the FM of many Arab states to co-ordinate actions. It is implementing a decade's long policy to strategically defeat the US in the region (taking out CENTCOM). To this end, there have been increasing attacks on American military bases from Iraqi groups, and threats that more ‘severe’ attacks are to come. Yemen (Houthis) are fully engaged in the war and have fired drones and ballistic missiles at Israel (Eilat). Syrian factions have also attacked Israel via the Golan, and also said more attacks are to come. A large number of operators from these countries are gathering around their respective borders and staging areas in case a bigger war breaks out. It is evidently clear that they will act as a unit and are preparing the battleground for all options.

🇲🇾/🇮🇩(Malaysia/Indonesia): The countries have seen significant protests in support of Palestine, and the governments are providing emergency aid and diplomatic support in the UN. There is continuous work to separate their economies from the US e.g., along with Thailand they have signed a tripartite deal to settle bilateral trade in their own currencies.

Additional Mention:

🇧🇴/🇭🇳/🇨🇱/🇨🇴(Bolivia/Honduras/Chile/Colombia): These countries have either recalled their ambassador to Israel or have severed ties, and have received significant admiration for doing so.

Other things to note:

1. It is important to remind you again that there is FULL public support in these countries for Palestine, and many are calling for more significant action.

2. I will reserve military analysis for others, but it seems the region is headed towards a larger war. Despite what Nasrallah or others may publicly say, escalations will continue and until Israel stops its military adventure there is ‘no going back for anyone’.