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Sooo… Israel just gathered 300k troops to invade Gaza
(hexbear.net)
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this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2023
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Israel invading Gaza with ground troops would provoke a response from Hezbollah and probably some other nearby nations, and they just spent the last year sending a bunch of their shit to Ukraine. Not to mention that Hamas is expecting a response and probably has all kinds of ambushes ready to go.
I don't know if the Israeli government is insane enough to go in, but it will be the beginning of the end for them if they do.
Israel has the unlimited backing of the great shaytan and unlike Ukraine is not utilised to grind down the military of a geopolitical rival. I hoped that the hostages taken by Hamas might deter any extreme excesses from the IDF but the unrelenting air strikes indicate that the Israeli government is more than willing to make a couple hundred martyrs.
Israel already said they will bomb houses indiscriminately without checking if they contain hostages beforehand IIRC; they don't care.
Already more than 400 Palestinians have been killed in retaliatory airstrikes, including at least 20 children.
Also, while Israel has the backing of the imperial core, ultimately if the recent events have proved something it's that no matter their advances in terms of means / funds / tech, ultimately sufficiently organized and motivated resistance fighters made that count for very little. Erez crossing for example was supposed to be an ultra-secure high tech border checkpoint and it got wrecked instantly.
According to the guardian, it's 91 children.
Israel had unlimited backing by the US when they got thoroughly embarrassed by Hezbollah in '06 too. it seems like Hezbollah's willing to get involved in the case of a ground invasion, I don't think it'd turn out well for Israel.
Israel has said they will level Damascus and kill Assad if Hezbollah invaded them, which seems odd but they are willing to drag a 3rd party into the war. If Syria and Lebanon are going in, Iran and Iraq likely will too at some level
declaring war on like 4 different fronts can only go well
The rise of cheap guided munition warfare is going to completely decimate the supposed technological advantage that Israel has over its neighbours.
Fighters are vulnerable to MANPADS, tanks are vulnerable to drones, and the end result of all of this is that whoever has the industrial capacity for more guided munitions wins. Air superiority is useless if you can't get within infrared range (50-80km) for CAS. You can't do SEAD if the missile that can pop you out of the sky can be carried on someone's shoulder. Armoured assaults are similarly useless if the guided munitions are both cheaper, have longer range, and are easier to pilot than your armour. Even piloted drones have substantially greater mobility than even the best armoured vehicles (because, y'know, you can operate them out of any moving thing) and the asymmetric cost of a defense system (the PATRIOT is estimated at 4 million per intercept) makes conventional Western doctrine unsustainable.
The entire principle of modern warfare seems to be centered around asymmetric response: instead of overwhelming the enemy with big arrow combined arms offensives, you want to whittle down your enemy with constant precision strikes that expend more of their resources than your own. As opposed to the dynamic supply lines necessitated by big offensives in prior conflicts, the core element today is efficient logistics assuming static frontlines. It's far more similar to WW1-era doctrine than WW2-era doctrine.
That's what I've gathered from both sides in the Ukraine conflict... but it'll be interesting to see if the same applies to a potential Arab War.
Would be one of the few ways I could see Israel lose hard...mind you I feel the USA might step in to stop that from happening but it would become an absolute clusterfuck
Who must go?
Isntreal is finished
I cannot think of a single thing better for Syrian unity than fighting a war with Israel that was instigated by Israel. It's exactly what Assad needs to consolidate power, because he's currently in the rather inconvenient position of having to rebuild from a civil war he was involved in. If Israel attacks, Assad has a scapegoat for all the societal and economic problems in Syria and allows for more cautious powers (e.g. China) to be more flexible in the aid and investment they provide.
He also can take back the golan heights.
Do you have any sources? I was trying to find a reference online but couldn't.
https://globeecho.com/politics/israel-threatens-hezbollah-intervention-leads-to-a-strike-on-damascus-and-assad/
https://www.archyde.com/israeli-threat-to-hezbollah-and-syria-updates-on-gaza-conflict-and-potential-strikes/
Eh, oppressing poor civilians is about what carriers are useful for in 2023, and the IRGCN would have to transit Suez to get to them. Most likely, the strike group is there to provide Anti-Ballistic Missile coverage for
all the pieces are falling into place
DPRK plz give PFLP Hypersonic missiles