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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Jazan refinery complex in southwestern Saudi Arabia, near the Yemeni border. The big squares depict large thermal signatures - i.e. giant fires caused by missile strikes.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleAs many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There's at least five strictly military problems:

  1. Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.

  2. Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran's military and society. There's enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they're just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.

  3. Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they're getting shot down.

  4. Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran's hands, the US's delaying tactics favor Iran instead.

  5. Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet's coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.

No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump's threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren't enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do... something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it's hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you've landed troops somewhere. We saw the "pilot rescue" (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.

It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country's internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi's remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 45 points 18 hours ago

https://archive.ph/n8NjB

French wildfires threaten nuclear deterrence industry, Rafale assembly

Wildfires raging west of the French city of Bordeaux are threatening a number of France’s key defense-industrial sites, including an ArianeGroup facility that produces propulsion components for the M51 submarine-launched ballistic missile, Dassault Aviation’s final assembly line for the Rafale fighter jet, and one of Roxel’s main manufacturing sites for solid rocket motors used in MBDA missiles.

more

Dassault Aviation said it was moving sensitive equipment from a site closest to the wildfires to one nearer Bordeaux, with most workers staying home in line with instructions issued by the authorities. ArianeGroup had evacuated its affected sites, while the French Atomic Energy Commission CEA closed its military nuclear research site near Bordeaux as the wildfires approached. The Gironde department of southwest France has been battling one of the country’s largest wildfires on record, with over 100,000 acres burned — an area roughly four times the size of Paris. The fires in recent days approached the cluster of defense and aerospace sites west of Bordeaux that represents one of France’s most important concentrations of missile, propulsion, combat aircraft, and military electronics production. Dassault Aviation had to move “a certain number of sensitive equipment” from its site in Martignas and a logistics center in Cestas to its site in Mérignac and the local Air Base 106, working in close cooperation with France’s Directorate General for Armament and local authorities, the aircraft maker said in an emailed statement late Monday. Satellite data on Tuesday morning showed wildfires remained active less than 9 kilometers (5.6 miles) west of Dassault’s Martignas site, which is the wing assembly plant for the Rafale jet, before final assembly of the aircraft in Mérignac. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System showed fires and hot spots west of Bordeaux were significantly reduced as of 9 o’clock in the morning local time, though authorities have warned that a new wave of hot weather with a peak on Wednesday, combined with near-record drought conditions, could cause fire activity to pick up again.

Employees at the Mérignac and Martignas plants are staying home, in line with instructions issued by authorities, unless they’ve been evacuated, Dassault Aviation said. Those still working are the teams necessary for the transfer of equipment and those in charge of protecting the site to help with fire-fighting efforts, the company said. ArianeGroup is working in close cooperation with local and national authorities, and the company’s sites west of Bordeaux “have been evacuated, and all necessary measures have been taken to secure them,” the space-launch company said in an emailed reply to questions. The firm said it’s not commenting on security measures around its sites. Satellite data as of Tuesday morning showed active wildfires around 12 kilometers west of ArianeGroup’s Candale site, where the propulsion units of the M51 missile stages are integrated and assembled, around 13 kilometers from the site of Saint-Médard-en-Jalles where the missile is fueled, and some 16 kilometers of the Le Haillan site that produces the company’s solid-propulsion systems.

“Whilst the unprecedented forest fires in Gironde are above all an environmental and humanitarian disaster, they also threaten sites that are of vital strategic importance to our nuclear deterrent,” said Etienne Marcuz, an associate fellow at the Foundation pour la Recherche Stratégique, in a post on the social media network X on Sunday. Emergency services aided by local construction companies worked during the night of Friday to Saturday and throughout the day to clear vegetation and create firebreaks around a number of sensitive sites, Gironde department Prefect Sophie Brocas said in a press conference on Saturday. Marc Vermeulen, the head of the Gironde department fire and emergency service, said that after protecting lives, the next priority is protecting at-risk strategic sites. The DGA has a missile testing site just west of Saint-Médard. Thales said its site at Mérignac has been closed since Monday as a precautionary measure, in accordance with guidelines from the authorities. The company said it’s doing everything possible to safeguard its strategic equipment at the site and ensure continuity of its commitments to customers. The Thales site sits across from the Dassault Aviation campus in the Bordeaux suburb, and supplies equipment including avionics systems for the Rafale as well as military helicopters.

MBDA’s Roxel unit has one of its main production locations in Saint-Médard, where it produces propellant, solid rocket motors and carries out integration work for rockets and drones, on a site shared with ArianeGroup. Roxel produces the motors for a number of MBDA missiles, including the Aster range of air-defense interceptors. “Roxel is managing the situation and the necessary measures have been taken to ensure the safety of our staff and our operations, with the support of the relevant authorities and emergency services,” MBDA said in an emailed statement, declining further comment. The CEA said its site in Le Barp southwest of Bordeaux has been closed due to the wildfire situation. After wildfires in 2022, the center put in place new procedures, provided additional fire-fighting equipment to the in-house fire brigade, and created firebreaks around the center, the government organization said in an emailed reply to questions. The CEA Cesta site houses the organization’s megajoule laser, a research instrument used to create conditions of extreme heat and pressure similar to those produced by nuclear weapons, and part of France’s efforts to maintain the credibility of its nuclear deterrent without live nuclear testing. As of Tuesday morning, satellite data showed active wildfires around 7 kilometers from the site, after the fire front got to around 4 kilometers from the CEA site over the weekend.

this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2026
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