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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

An image of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, c. February, where Iranian strikes have caused substantial damage and several US soldier deaths and casualties.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleAfter an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.

For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran's control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is "attempting", because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.

Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn't firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they're using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it's unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying "Alright, let's get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls--" and Iran just... hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It's not a tenable position to hold, and Iran's capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.

So, what is Iran's strategy? It's what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed "debasification". If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US's military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US's strategy, Iran's is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 61 points 2 days ago

https://archive.ph/IZQkP

Rapid pace of interceptor and precision-guided weapons use worries Trump administration

The rapid pace at which the U.S. is expending some of its most advanced air-defense interceptors and precision-guided weapons in the Middle East is a point of great tension inside the Trump administration as President Trump's war with Iran ratchets up again, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials familiar with internal assessments. And it's raising broader concerns about America's readiness for a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

more

The dwindling stockpiles of defensive interceptors and long-range missiles have become a pressure point for top military and civilian leaders who are weighing the demands of the war with Iran against maintaining readiness to deter other adversaries, including China. The U.S. officials, who spoke to CBS News on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, said the U.S. cannot sustain the rate at which it expended precision munitions early in the campaign against Iran. The defense industrial base is not equipped to produce missiles rapidly enough to replenish munitions that have been fired or transferred to U.S. Central Command, which is overseeing the conflict, leaving inventories under mounting pressure even as military operations continue. Interceptors are in heavy use to defend U.S. interests in the Gulf states, which house U.S. troops and are being targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. One partner country told CBS News there is a need for a pause in fighting, particularly given the intensity of Iranian strikes that have been battering Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait said earlier this week that Iran struck its infrastructure, damaging electricity and desalination plants. In an interview last month with "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth denied that there was any crisis with the stockpiles. He conceded that some munitions may take more time to produce than others, but he told Brennan, "We've got lots of them, we're building more than ever before." "Our stockpiles are strong, and they will only get stronger in the future," Hegseth said.

But U.S. commanders have increasingly been shifting toward using more GPS-guided bombs fitted with Joint Direct Attack Munitions, or JDAM, guidance kits, along with Small Diameter Bombs, which are precision-glide weapons that can attack fixed targets at shorter ranges and can also be used in lieu of long-range standoff weapons. Earlier in the conflict, U.S. forces frequently employed long-range cruise missiles such as the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, known as JASSM, and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile. Those weapons remain in the arsenal, officials said, but are being used more sparingly. In April, Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that scaling up output of high-end systems such as the Tomahawk cruise missile or JASSM could take years, as defense companies work on expanding production lines. "I think it will take one to two years for them to scale," said Paparo, whose responsibilities include preparing for any potential conflict in the Pacific region, including with China. "It won't be soon enough. There are finite limits to the magazine, and I have all the faith in the world that they're being employed judiciously."

judiciously tito-laugh

Following the collapse of the ceasefire earlier this month, U.S. strikes have focused on targets closer to Iran's coastline, reducing the need for aircraft to penetrate deeper into Iranian territory, where they would face denser air-defense networks and a greater threat from surface-to-air missiles. The U.S. officials told CBS News there are limited inventories of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, the long-range missiles fired from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a truck-mounted launcher capable of firing precision rockets and missiles. Concerns over certain munition inventories are not new. The Biden administration delayed giving ATACMS to Ukraine in part because drawing from those inventories could undermine U.S. military readiness, CBS News previously reported. The U.S. has comparatively healthier supplies of the shorter-range Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, or GMLRS, which is also fired from the HIMARS launcher, the officials told CBS News, allowing commanders greater flexibility for targets within its range. The most pressing concern involves air-defense interceptors, used to defend against cruise and ballistic missiles, aircraft and lethal drones, several sources said. The U.S. has expended large numbers of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptors to defend against both ballistic missiles and drones, consuming inventories faster than industry can replace them. To support operations in the Middle East, the Pentagon has shifted interceptor inventories from other regions, including stocks that had been prepositioned for the Indo-Pacific. Those transfers have left other combatant commands operating with thinner margins than military planners consider ideal, particularly as the U.S. seeks to deter Chinese military action around Taiwan and reassure allies across the Pacific.

Asked for comment, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told CBS News: "America's military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing. We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests." In 2022, Elbridge Colby, who was a defense official during the first Trump administration and is now the undersecretary for policy at the Pentagon, summed up the choices confronting an American military stretched across the globe: "A missile used in Europe can't be used in Asia," he wrote in Time magazine. He was commenting on the use of U.S. munitions in the war in Ukraine. But the latest stage of the American campaign against Iran has brought the same strategic dilemma into renewed focus. A year later, Colby argued that weapons that could be useful for defeating a Chinese attack along the first island chain — a string of islands off China's coast extending from Japan, through Taiwan and the Philippines — should be reserved for that purpose. The concerns of U.S. officials about current stockpiles involve some of those same weapons. During the ceasefire pause, a Center for Strategic and International Studies report said more than 1,000 Tomahawks and 1,100 JASSMs had been used and that replacement timelines were approaching four years. It said that supplies of air-defense interceptors are under even greater strain, as the U.S. burns through a significant share of prewar inventories of THAAD, SM-3 missiles and Patriots. These weapons face production timelines of up to five years. Taken together, the numbers suggest that the central problem is not simply cost but time. Many of the weapons being fired in weeks or months cannot be replaced for years.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 44 points 2 days ago

For the US thinktank corps, there won't be a war in East Asia. Russia and Iran have depleted their capabilities and proven the untenable scale of production necessary to subvert it.

They may have constructed their own Atlantikwall along the indo-pacific, but like the last Nazi empire before them, most of the bunkers and caltrops will be worthless in retrospect. The hegemonic menace will be pried from its colonial spoils on two fronts, forming a noose that surrounds the gullet of the imperial core, and hoisted aloft by the proletariat of the world.

[-] Hestia@hexbear.net 42 points 2 days ago

Once they run out of interceptors it's gonna be glorious to see all the bases (and Isreal) get their shit rocked.

[-] Feed_el_Castro@hexbear.net 39 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

And it's raising broader concerns about America's readiness for a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific

Translated: "we want to go to war with those fucking Chinese"

Edit: the rest of the article confirms this, speaking openly about conflicts in peripheral coastline regions around China

[-] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 34 points 2 days ago

Trump should force the Pentagon to ink a contract for billions and billions of missiles from Cornucopia Defense Industries.

this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2026
146 points (100.0% liked)

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