Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Yeah this makes zero sense. If we can't use it nobody can? Okay so...that includes all of your allies who now will be pressuring you to end the blockade.
This will absolutely backfire. It might backfire so big that countries just stop following any US blockade which would be huge for Cuba and Venezuela. Trump might accidentally be freeing the struggling communist south with this which is hilarious
I think it has some limited strategic merit. By doing this, they are ensuring that no country can cut side deals with Iran for oil/gas/helium/fertilizer deliveries. I think they fear diplomatic normalization and the establishment of neutral (from the US POV) payment mechanisms more than the Hormuz being shut entirely. The play here is to ensure the US remains the sole arbiter of who can trade what with Iran. It is a desperate attempt to keep the sanctions regime from crumbling by fait accompli.
It doesn't help them dislodge or subjugate the IRI (sanctions and an economic blockade were already the status quo antibellum), but it will definitely discourage other nations who are more eager to shift their economic alliances in the short term now that they are starving for these resources.
It also gives them a bargaining chip in the next round of negotiations (not soon, but inevitable). Iran has effectively established their control over the Hormuz, but the US will attempt to use this counter-blockade to trade for some other more meaningful conditions.
In the long run, there is probably a need to transform the global US sanctions regime from one of paper and policy to one of physical obstruction, as many alternative payment networks and counter-alliances continue to develop and mature. Each year the US is less capable of relying on aligned banks and institutions to prevent transactions they don't like from taking place. We kind of see this happening already with the destruction of Nordstream and the naval blockade in the Caribbean. War is sanctions by other means.
Precisely. As Richard Medhurst's recent video outlines US plans to control global supplies of gas and oil to the maximum extent possible and to use this to deindustrialize vassals/allies as well as attempt the same eventually with enemies while enriching itself, moving capital back to it, and gaining total leverage over them by being their sole supplier of gas/oil. Europe cutting deals with Iran or starting to in order to get past the blockade with payments was driving a wedge between Europe and the US and threatening the leverage the US established by provoking the war with Russia and bombing Nordstream.
This leaves Europe with limited choices just the way the way the US wants. Europe can:
It's global blackmail gambit by Trump "everyone join me in attacking or at least leaning on Iran to get the strait totally open or I destroy the global economy". Remains to be seen if the bourgeoisie will rein him in or not.
China could technically do something if they want to attack the US navy directly and get in a hot war but that would serve Trump's interests and wants at least in forcing a hard decoupling at speed. Russia is in a position where they could fairly give Iran long-range missiles capable of attacking US navy ships in retaliation for US and Europe giving Ukraine ATACMS/Storm Shadows which have been used on Russia. Russia could thus force the US out and re-open the strait. But Russia will never do this because the US would retaliate by lifting its own limits on the abilities they give to the Ukrainians and Russia still seeks a rapprochement with the US as well as realizing only the US can force Ukraine to the negotiating table though I personally think the US intends to leave Ukraine burning for quite some time so they can use Ukrainians to knock out Russian gas/oil supplies to China to complete their ability to squeeze China and control its critical supplies in an uno-reverse of the rare earths situation.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
The problem is that if South Korea or India makes a deal with Iran (which they seem reasonably happy to do) and then their fuel gets interdicted by an American destroyer in international waters, they aren't going to get pissed at Iran.
This play loses Asia for the US forever
JDPON Don strikes again