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this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2026
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Counterpoint 2% of the global energy supply is used to make fertilizer. The majority which is produced and exported off the Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s never been so over.
Russia is still a major petroleum-based fertilizer producer, so China and India's fertilizer supply is safe at least (India also makes a lot of their own.) Canada is a major provider to the west but I can imagine as the cost of shipping goes up that's going to leave Europe shit out of luck- too expensive to ship from Canada, Russia sanctioned, and the gulf locked down. US also produces a lot of their own but I've seen that US farmers already felt they had a fertilizer shortage because of the tarriff war driving up prices on it in the first place.
It's because fertilizers isn't just one thing. Going by the OEC website, I think we'll be 'fine' when it comes to potassium fertilizers (it's Canada's and Russia's game), but nitrogenous fertilizers and urea rely on the gulf. Either because its produced in the gulf, or because countries in Europe and East Asia produce those fertilizers with the gulf's inputs. Morocco meanwhile is very dominant when it comes to phosphorous so we should be 'fine' there as well.
It's going to be bad for areas where there's already chronic deficits but not in the US, where there's massive overproduction. There will be negative consequences - food prices will go up, especially for meat/animal products, smaller farmers will go bankrupt and the consolidation of the ag sector will accelerate, and a lot of imported fruits and veggies will be more expensive or less available, but it won't be a torches-and-pitchforks situation.
I think American wallets are already sensitive to grocery store prices. I absolutely think in the summer, this place will burn. They might put it over the top after the SAVE act passes or they still the elections
this is a completely valid concern and it WILL affect poorer people which is fucked up.
i just assume OP is from a western imperialist country
I am, yes.
I appreciate I'm in a much better position than most of the world, and less likely to suffer, but this crisis feels unprecedented in scope.