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this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2026
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Russia is still a major petroleum-based fertilizer producer, so China and India's fertilizer supply is safe at least (India also makes a lot of their own.) Canada is a major provider to the west but I can imagine as the cost of shipping goes up that's going to leave Europe shit out of luck- too expensive to ship from Canada, Russia sanctioned, and the gulf locked down. US also produces a lot of their own but I've seen that US farmers already felt they had a fertilizer shortage because of the tarriff war driving up prices on it in the first place.
It's because fertilizers isn't just one thing. Going by the OEC website, I think we'll be 'fine' when it comes to potassium fertilizers (it's Canada's and Russia's game), but nitrogenous fertilizers and urea rely on the gulf. Either because its produced in the gulf, or because countries in Europe and East Asia produce those fertilizers with the gulf's inputs. Morocco meanwhile is very dominant when it comes to phosphorous so we should be 'fine' there as well.