There are already lawsuits filed for refunds of tariff payments. Of course the money will go to the companies that made the payments. All of us who actually paid them by paying more for basically every consumer good are out of luck.

So...

... yeah...

According to the Fed, as of early-mid Jan 2026, you're looking at $287 billion dollars of total Trump tariff revenue.

https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2026/how_much_revenue_raised_by_tariffs_so_far

Also, over the last year, into this one, the Treasury has been massively expanding its General Account, which is functionally the checking account of the Federal Government.

Its around $900 billion right now.

Normally its more like several hundred billion, 200 b, 300 b.

Why is it so large right now?

Well, because the Treasury (Bessent) has decided to just massively shift as much of the Gov's debt refinancing as possible, over to... short term debt issuance, like, 1 Year T bills and even shorter duration notes.

Like uh, just a few days ago, the Gov issued (refinanced) around $212 billion of debt.

So yeah, we had a one day debt rollover that... rivals the entire size of the Treasury General Account basically pre-covid.

Every 5 days (business week), the US Gov is refinancing roughly $600 billion of debt.

... what I am trying to say is that even if the treasury were to somehow pay back around $300 billion of illegal tariff revenue...

Well, that would take a while.

Because the Treasury doesn't have the margin to do that.

... It could very well be the case that Fed would have to print money, to buy the T Bills, so the money in the TGA... could repay the ... tariffs.

That latest $212 billion rollover ?

The Fed had to print, poof into existence, $8 billion of it. And thats without the Fed Gov trying to add another $300 billion into... some... kind of... payment plan?

I don't know man, I'm an econometrician by training, but... to my knowledge nothing comparable to this has ever happened before.

This is not looking so good.

To some corporations I'm sure. Not to the consumers that actually paid the cost of them. A lot of corporations bought surplus before tariffs went into effect. Then they raised prices as if the Tariffs were affecting them instantly. Now some will surely get pay backs and double dip in the profits.

This has been and always will be a tax on the consumer and the working class. It is nothing but capital consolidation methods and class warfare. Those loyal to Trump get exclusions and profit from the Tariffs. Those that do not are hurt (all small business and some larger corps that don't play ball).

It is a means of solidifying loyalty to the fascist state.

Yeah of course, now the big importing companies get billions of dollars... oh you meant to the consumer, tough luck.

There's always the chance Costco gives its customers something. They have records of everything purchased by members. Every other company, I wouldn't hold my breath. These tariffs have cost companies a lot in paperwork as well.

Maybe commercial clients who have bought something really substantial will get something refunded.

That's all if Trump's government complies, which he's previously said it wouldn't. He'll make another excuse or appeal it until he's gone, making it someone else's problem.

A trump never pays his debts

Pay who back? All the citizens this administration fleeced?

If corporations are paid back they aren't going to give refunds to all of their costumers they directly forwarded these costs to.

We all got fucked. Trump fucked us, as well as his own supporters.

The cheque is in the mail.