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this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2026
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So...
... yeah...
According to the Fed, as of early-mid Jan 2026, you're looking at $287 billion dollars of total Trump tariff revenue.
https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2026/how_much_revenue_raised_by_tariffs_so_far
Also, over the last year, into this one, the Treasury has been massively expanding its General Account, which is functionally the checking account of the Federal Government.
Its around $900 billion right now.
Normally its more like several hundred billion, 200 b, 300 b.
Why is it so large right now?
Well, because the Treasury (Bessent) has decided to just massively shift as much of the Gov's debt refinancing as possible, over to... short term debt issuance, like, 1 Year T bills and even shorter duration notes.
Like uh, just a few days ago, the Gov issued (refinanced) around $212 billion of debt.
So yeah, we had a one day debt rollover that... rivals the entire size of the Treasury General Account basically pre-covid.
Every 5 days (business week), the US Gov is refinancing roughly $600 billion of debt.
... what I am trying to say is that even if the treasury were to somehow pay back around $300 billion of illegal tariff revenue...
Well, that would take a while.
Because the Treasury doesn't have the margin to do that.
... It could very well be the case that Fed would have to print money, to buy the T Bills, so the money in the TGA... could repay the ... tariffs.
That latest $212 billion rollover ?
The Fed had to print, poof into existence, $8 billion of it. And thats without the Fed Gov trying to add another $300 billion into... some... kind of... payment plan?
I don't know man, I'm an econometrician by training, but... to my knowledge nothing comparable to this has ever happened before.
This is not looking so good.