chapotraphouse

He starts sundowning, gets confused and pushes the big red button. 100 years later a communist tribe emerges victorious in the Great Scavenger Wars.

See my comment to the other user here.

I did elaborate in the original comment chain (which is now gone since the account was deleted) but people didn’t like what I had to say. So I’m just going to keep it short but be mindful that this is a wild and quirky theory.

This (accidental) Biden masterpiece will occur in four stages, roughly speaking.

Stage 1: Fed rate hikes drives deficits and prevented US recession

The Federal Reserve tried to curb inflation by hiking interest rates, which is based on the faulty neoclassical economics and their obsession with monetary policy. The goal was to reduce consumer spending, create unemployment which then causes a recession to allow inflation to go down.

When everyone was predicting a recession in the US, I have been on the record saying that the high interest rates will not create a recession (this is essentially the MMT line). The US treasury securities are in enormous volume that increasing the interest rates will only end up pumping more dollars into the system (~$1 trillion USD are now entering the circulation simply through interest income channel alone! It’s estimated that it will reach about $1.5T by the end of the year), and while most of the money went to the rich people (and growing wealth disparity between the rich and the poor), even a small fraction of trickle down is enough to prevent a recession in the US. This has never happened before in history.

At the same time, the rate hikes is killing the rest of the world as central banks across the world chased the high interest rates and desperately trying to stop capital outflows to the US treasuries in vain. This global dollar liquidity drain heightens debt crisis and famine/energy crisis due to the strengthened dollar making everything more expensive.

So far, everything has happened as predicted. The recession did not happen. At a deficit of 8% GDP, there is no way that a recession could happen in the near future. What would have thrown this theory out of whack would be a huge banking crisis from the rate hikes that hits the US economy hard. However, the banking crisis in March has been well mitigated. Everything about Stage 1 is currently on track, and this positions the Biden administration to make their next move: killing BRICS.

Stage 2: The death of BRICS

Again, I have been on the record saying that BRICS has already missed the boat with de-dollarization. The best opportunity was last fall during the global dollar liquidity drain when many countries were being punished. Ironically, the dollar was at its weakest when it was valued at its strongest. However, everyone in BRICS was dragging their feet, kept taking a “wait and see” stance, too afraid to make a radical shift, and now that window of opportunity has already closed. Notice how much news reporting was about de-dollarization late last year, and contrast to the latest BRICS summit where everyone has a more sober take about de-dollarization now. Even the “BRICS reserve currency” was nowhere to be seen - and the answer is simple: it is impossible to take on the dollar.

If you are intent on taking on the world’s most established, stable, liquid asset that has unparalleled market depth, you better not miss - you typically will only have one shot, and the rare opening would be a very transient one. And that opening has already closed at this point, and we don’t know when will a new opportunity surface again.

Now, with the huge volume of accumulated dollar liquidity in the hands of the bourgeoisie, literally free money issued by the government, those money has to go somewhere other than stocks and bonds. There will reach an inflection point where the mass of the dollar will start to flood the foreign sector, thereby dollarizing the world again with a huge influx of dollars into the developing world - just right at a time when the liquidity drain last year has left most countries in economic hardship!

This is most likely to happen this fall/winter (let’s see if my prediction is correct), and when that happens, BRICS will truly be in trouble.

Let me ask you this: if you are a developing country in desperate need of dollar to repay your debt and mitigate economic troubles, would you accept the dollar investment in your country, or would you rather to gamble on China/BRICS’s ambiguous alternative to the US-led trade regime? When you’re desperate, you take whatever dollars that come your way.

This will be the Biden administration’s effort to rewire the global supply chain away from China, and with China’s investment-led growth strategy which resulted in their relatively weak consumer base, it will not be able to absorb its own massive industrial capacity built for export to Western consumers. Europe has been neutered and will follow US’s lead to purchase from their new supply base. India actually has a strong consumer base but given their hostility with China, they will be the first to ditch the BRICS formation and submit to the dollar regime. China will find it difficult to transition away from the export-oriented economic model that it had built up over decades, and will hit a slump as the Belt and Road become increasingly dollarized (if I am not mistaken it is already 60% dollarized). Make no mistake, China won’t collapse like many Western propagandists are asserting, but it might very well kick them out of being a major challenger to the US.

The rest of the BRICS are too weak to take on the dollar and will each succumb to their respective economic problems.

Stage 3: Forced industrialization under neoliberalism

This is when things start to get really strange. With BRICS out of the way, and with the triumph of neoliberal finance capitalism over industrial capitalism, we enter a new phase where new contradictions are heightened.

With the BRICS industrial economies going into a slump, who else are going to supply the treats (the real goods and services) to the empire? Yes, finance capital is all powerful, but at the end of the day the people need actual stuff to consume. The new global supply chain will take a decade or two to fully replace China, so who else can supply the treats?

This will inevitably force the US to re-industrialize as it remains the only major power whose residual manufacturing base still has a leg to stand on (and probably from cannibalized European industries). This would never have happened otherwise if China/BRICS had been allowed to serve their roles as key exporters to Western consumers, but since BRICS has been beaten, the US thus ends up being a weird configuration of a hybrid system where neoliberal finance capitalism reigned supreme but is forced to co-exist with industrial capitalism, and this will spark new levels of contradictions like never before.

Which brings us to the final stage that ends with the ultimate clash between labor and capital.

Stage 4: Growth of labor and socialist movements in America

With the re-industrialization effort ongoing, American workers will once again enjoy rapid wage growth and increased purchasing power, as the balance of power is being shifted from capitalists to labor. This will spark new labor unions, organized strikes that demand for better pay and working conditions, socialist movements that will challenge the bourgeois establishment on the political stage and across all fronts.

The bourgeoisie will undoubtedly attempt to crack down on labor hard, possibly through fascist thugs, but this will only further heighten the contradiction between finance capitalism - that seeks exploit people as debtors, and industrial capitalism - that seeks to exploit the people as labor. The weakened power structure will give way to the ultimate socialist victory in America.

So, finally you have socialism in America, but in the weirdest possible manner, and only with the rest of the Global South devastated and/or plunged into unprecedented economic hardships. And it all came from Biden trying to start a war, which led to global commodity shortage and inflation, and their misguided attempt to curb inflation by rate hikes - on an economy with such massive scale of government debt that has never existed in history before.

This is the Biden’s masterpiece, which will end with destroying all of America’s foreign enemies while accidentally turning it socialist. But since we live in the craziest timeline, never say this will never happen.