chapotraphouse

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As one of the very few people on this site who genuinely roots for Biden, it is my belief that Biden is going to keep failing upwards and despite every attempt to stifle it, will accidentally turn Ame (hexbear.net)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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America into a re-vitalized, progressive nation with strong social welfare. (This may sound absurd, but I have a whole set of reasonings and indicators supporting this that are too long to elaborate here)

How'd that one work out?

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I wonder if your conception is a bit too focused on nationalism in the USA and ignores the internationalist/financial pressure pressure for low wages and control over people's body more than is currently possible in the USA outside the prison industrial complex.

Nigeria for example is a huge country that will grow quite well for the next decades till the effects of climate change will make it much harder to live there, which will bring lower agricultural output with it and the instabilities caused by climate change, political instability (according to OP's text etc.). Could be - just like Mexico or special development zones in the USA be used for cheap labour. Which Awoo did hint at in another comment (that just because labour due to isolationist economy is more needed, doesn't mean it will immediately win).

I would also ask what degree of separation from the dollar you think is possible with oil/gas and gold which are convertible in foreign trade quite well. So my question would in addition be what are the fundamental texts or competencies of yourself you use to draw for your outlook (don't dox yourself though).

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

The imagined scenario is based on the fact that it is impossible to replace the dollar regime, and BRICS has completely missed the boat for de-dollarization, if there ever was one in the first place (there was a moment of weakness last fall with the dollar outflow from the rest of the world - it was possible to replace the dollar with some kind of currency as the world desperately tried to prevent their capital outflow, but since all BRICS nations want to be net exporter countries, nobody had the desire to be the net importer country, the US retains the advantage of a net importer country simply because it can simply prints money to get “free lunches” from everyone else. BRICS as net exporters do not have this advantage).

Obviously, my concern/starting point is what will happen when the dollar liquidity accumulates again (increasingly fueled by rate hikes)? I think they will go to the foreign sector, which will spell doom for the BRICS exporters as I have pointed out above.