Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Hell yeah dude
Urgent: Deputy Spokesman for the Yemeni Armed Forces, Brigadier General Abdullah bin Amer: If there is a quest for calm in the region, it must include Gaza, for the battle began there, and because of it, it has continued and expanded, and for its sake, it must end.
https://t.me/jeniincamp/112168
A genuinely fascinating part of this conflict is that organizational military and economic power has been inversely proportional to the time it takes for those organizations to cry uncle
Hamas is the least well-armed and well-equipped and yet has been fighting for nearly two years straight with only intermittent breaks
Ansarallah, which might be more well-equipped than Hezbollah but less able to use all their power due to the distance, joined a couple months after the conflict began and has been fighting up to this very day
Hezbollah had tens of thousands of missiles and was brought to ceasefire in about a year
Iran is a giant state with (more or less) full sovereignty over its entire territory and with massive military production and (if the ceasefire rumor is true, which it maybe might not be? idk?) was brought to ceasefire in like, two weeks
Nothing to lose is real man. Revolution won’t happen until people don’t have homes to live in
To be fair, for hamas they don't have a choice. It is fight or get exterminated
It's the same for the rest, they just don't realize it yet.
Well that's exactly why. Iran has a conventional military, everyone knows the targets. Hezbollah went from trying to fight Israel as a guerilla force in 2006, to a conventional army in 2024, and suffered large losses. Hamas is very much still a guerilla force, and Ansarallah/Houthis in Yemen are a mixture of both in one of the poorest countries on earth.
Iran can't fight like a guerilla force and make the concessions to do so because it would be utterly humiliating for them as a state actor, they would have to make massive tactical sacrifices. Yemen went over two weeks without firing a missile at Israel during their war with the US Navy, what would people think if Iran did that? Then there's the economy. Yemen's one of the poorest countries on earth and were prepared to absorb huge losses to continue fighting. Is Iran prepared to do that, to lose all of their airports and civilian aircraft, to have their seaports bombed constantly. What's acceptable for Yemen is not acceptable for Iran. And Yemen still agreed to some seperate peace with the USA that excluded Israel.
With Hezbollah it's similar, trying to go back to guerrilla tactics after suffering large losses and decapitation strikes, while Lebanon is divided internally and Beirut is being bombed daily, was not considered an option. Switching to guerrilla tactics would also mean giving up ground to Israel, who were fighting a ground war as well as an air war.
As for Hamas, they don't really have a choice. I'm sure they would take a ceasefire if offered, given the devastation.
porky infiltration levels
Yep, the man covered in lice is not worried about one more itch.