this post was submitted on 01 May 2025
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Way too early. We haven't even begun to see the results of these policies yet. Inflation results don't yet take tariffs into account, the mass layoffs that are currently happening don't show up in unemployment stats yet, the massive GDP shrinkage isn't showing up yet, supply chains that are in the process of crashing haven't yet affected consumers. This is a dead cat bounce, which literally every single crash in history has, and every time there are people shouting that the pain is over and now is the time to buy back in, right before the bottom drops out.
We will see. I dont think so.
You should ask yourself when you think its safe to buy. If its at the top of the market, or if you want to wait for the crash that may never come? Both of those options are very bad.
The bottom hits when all (or most) of the bad news is on the table. People know what's happening and what the future looks like. It doesn't happen when the pain is gone, just when people know what that pain will look like for the foreseeable future. For example, in 2022 the bottom happened when rate increases started to slow down, not when they stopped completely, just when inflation was starting to level off and we dropped from .75pt hikes to .5pt and people could see a path forward.
We are not at that point yet in the current crash, nobody has any idea how bad it's going to get, none of the indicators show the problems yet because they're all lagging, and consumers haven't been hit yet by the high prices and supply chain crashes because manufacturers and retailers are still running off of back stock.
I could be wrong of course, but I don't think I am.
We will see. Looking forward to seeing what happens. We have doomsday scenarios and we have hopeful scenarios that tariffs are temporary and will be removed once the narcissist is happy. We will see.