this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2025
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chapotraphouse
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They can and are switching to talk of nationalism and self-sufficiency. They don't have the slightest ability to back it up at all. And experience shows that Trump gets what he wants while liberals and Europeans fold like paper, because neither of them are willing or capable of building the infrastructure necessary to actually be self sufficient and fight against Trump's erratic bullying. There is a very real possibility that America plaza accords the EU because just like Japan, a vassal state does not have the right to pursue a genuinely nationalistic path (not that I would prefer European nationalism).
In fact, if the EU wanted to pursue actual self sufficiency, they would have started 10 years ago, abandoned neoliberalism and implemented a comprehensive industrial policy (while developing European alternatives to American tech). Instead, we are seeing a wide spread austerity and de-industrialization program unprecedented since the thatcherism.
This is just not true at all though. Biden and Obama were both much better at getting Europe to do what they wanted than Trump during his first term. When has Trump being some geo-political mastermind able to bully other countries into submission been anything but a conservative fantasy? He is not even going to get Canada to play ball, let alone all of Europe.
To say that they don't have the ability to resist just giving away their industries is bizzare. You would have to give them genuinely zero other options to survive first, and while Europe is stagnant like most first-world economies, it's still an obscenely wealthy and un-proportionally influential region of the world. It's facing slow economic decline, but it's not in any danger of collapsing anytime soon. To say otherwise just feels like wishful thinking.
Europe is going to decline, that's basically certain, and their relationship with the US souring is going to be a part of that. But it will be slow, as more and more thirld-word countries rise out of poverty and are able to push Europe out of its unique position on the global stage. It's not going to be because they give away all their shit to the US because they couldn't resist Trump's secret genius.
You don't have to be a geo-political genius to do anything if this. Trump's strategies are crude, but they work because the Europeans are vassals of America.
It's not as if they are going to airlift their factories and plop them onto America. However, Europeans are panicking over these tariffs and are even trying turn towards china to get access to markers. If Europeans fail to gain Chinese favor, their industrial decline will further accelerate and American capital will be rid of a competitor capital. It could then expand even further into Europe (American FDI is already 1/3rd the size of the European stock market).
I would respectfully disagree. The foundations of the EU have been rapidly rotting ever since covid (and were slowly rotting since the GFC). After the crises in 2008, 2014, then 2020, then 2022 (ukraine and nordstream), there are only so many shocks that the EU can take before the populists dismantle it.