this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2024
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Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.


The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.

Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.

Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 61 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (4 children)

Okay, I've made a shitty map of the current situation at around 23:00 Syrian time on the 6th of December. This is based on Telegram news mostly and probably very inaccurate in the south, but the situation is very fluid there. Arrows represent current movements and upcoming movements.

Edit: it's already outdated, that little SAA pocket in Daraa in the south has already fallen

[–] [email protected] 35 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Edit: it's already outdated, that little SAA pocket in Daraa in the south has already fallen

...

This is reaching parody levels now.

Thank you for your time and effort that you put into this.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Five provincial capitals in 5 days lmao

Aleppo last Sunday

Hama yesterday

Suwayda, Daraa and Deir Ez-Zor today

[–] [email protected] 27 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

I remember when you and I called the fall of Aleppo a few days ago and no one wanted to believe it. I don't know what to do anymore. As someone whose being following the situation in Syria since 2011, it's just... I don't have words anymore.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

First time I predict something correctly on this forum, big moment for me. It was so obvious that it's an Afghanistan level collapse the moment Maarat Al Numan and Khan Sheikhoun fell

[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 weeks ago

Biggest surprise so far was that Hama stood for longer than 24 hours. Even then I was coping saying that Assad and the SAA had a chance, that was until Hama fell.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Accept the reality that Iran and Syria were never worth our support. All the talk of resistance completely ignored sunni shia strife that was bound to blow up.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

I mean the axis of resistance is the political Islamist project that was in opposition to imperialism. Almost all the other Islamist states in the region are in service of Washington DC. It being weakened is bad news. And Syria, even with how unstable it was, was at least an attempt at a secular state. If Jolani becomes the majority decision maker there, things can go bad pretty quickly, the guy is ex Al-Qaeda, and his HTS is an Al-Nusra rebrand. Syria could also become Libya 2.0 with competing factions, and ethnic discrimination.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 weeks ago

But incidentally, if we take erdie and trump in january: kurds are beyond fucked, just some oil derricks with turkish firms

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

The map was already awful but the edit somehow made it worse it's beyond parody at this point.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

It's worse than the 2015 situation in a lot of ways even...

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Dare I say it has never been so Bashover as it is right now. I give it a few more days

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 weeks ago

At this rate, HTS will reach Damascus in a few days.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 weeks ago

I know this situation is sooo fluid right now, but if the Syrian state collapses or regroups in that territory around Latakia or whatever what does the future look like for the SDF? Do they get rolled by the Turks or does America want to keep them around?