Yemen says it will resume targeting US warships in the Red Sea if Washington intervenes militarily in support of Israel against Iran.

In a new statement, the Yemeni Armed Forces warned that any direct US involvement in aggression against Iran would be treated as part of the broader Zionist project to dominate the region—one that has already targeted Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.

Calling Iran a principal obstacle to that plan, the statement reaffirmed Yemen’s readiness to respond to any escalation and declared solidarity with any Arab or Muslim country facing Israeli attacks.

I don't think this will shift US decision-making out of bombing Iran (that seems inevitable) but I think it's still pretty significant. Yemen alone was able to tie up a pretty considerable amount of naval resources including interceptor missiles, and I have my doubts that the US will be any more effective than they were last time (that is, not very). Ideally for the Resistance, an aircraft carrier has to be forced to engage with Yemen instead of Iran. In the best case scenario, maybe they even sink one, or more realistically score a notable hit that forces a retreat and months of maintenance.

What an inspiring leadership and population. Yemen will be remembered for centuries for doing so much to help defeat imperialism when they have so little.

Simplicius: Israel Buckles as Iran War Shifts to New Drag-Out Phase

I have full access to this piece as it's free, and it's pretty long, so I will once again be summarizing.

• Iran just concluded talks in Geneva with Western representatives and failed to reach a deal as Iran will still not end enrichment, will not end its missile program, and will not negotiate until Israel stops attacking them. Simplicius points out the hypocrisy of the West vis-a-vis Russia ("Russia must end hostilities and withdraw from Ukraine entirely, THEN we can negotiate! Israel, of course, doesn't need to do the same thing with Iran").
• Iran keeping to its original aims is encouraging, indicating that they think an attritional war with Israel is likely to work. That they're bluffing is certainly possible but doesn't seem probable.
• Iran has been taking significant damage, though with Israel reusing the same videos a lot, it takes a while to properly analyse things. Radar sites have been hit, and there are about 80 verified hits on Iranian ballistic missile launchers.
• Simplicius doesn't know how many ballistic missiles Iran has (well, nobody except Iran really knows) but agrees it's somewhere in the low thousands (~3000, maybe more). Some sources claim 1500 have been fired already, while more precise graphs count 500 total launched.
• Iran can produce up to 300 ballistic missiles per month according to Western estimates. As long as Iran fires 10 or less missiles per day, they can keep firing basically indefinitely without wearing down stockpiles for when they're critically needed (e.g. the US joins the war).
• Israel's ability to intercept these missiles has been very degraded, so Iran could actually fire even less and achieve the same result. Iran could be thinking that they'll just fire ~5 per day and slowly build up stockpiles over the course of a long attritional war (months or years), even if they lose a couple missiles every day to Israeli bombing. We are seeing this in practice - that Iran is firing less missiles for the same overall result.
• Iranian senior official Mohsen Rezaee has publically stated that Iran has fired "over 400 missiles" and "over 600 drones" and that "dozens of missiles have hit Israel", which seems to match the graphs carefully counting up to about ~500 missile launches. On the face of it, this means a ~75% interception rate for Israel, and that's certainly a valid way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that many of these missiles were very old missiles that were used to waste interceptors so that more advanced missiles could get through later, and Israel itself is admitting that its interception rate is rapidly falling.
• Rezaee, back in March, stated that they knew that war with Israel is inevitable and was taking precautions. He says Iran's "missile capabilities" (a delightfully ambiguous word) were ramped up by 5 or 6 times. The most sensible way to interpret "capabilities" is probably "production". It's not clear whether this means production has been increased to the Western estimate of 300 per month, or if it's now substantially higher than that, but regardless, it's clear that Iran is following Russia's example, implementing a massive military-industrial campaign which dramatically outproduces the West.
• He also stated that Iran, as a precaution, already removed its most important nuclear program materials to safe locations, so what Israel is currently striking is achieving very little. There are flashy images of precise missile strikes by Israel, but these could very much be striking empty facilities. And even the West admits limited effectiveness overall despite the precision; e.g. at Natanz there's only damage to electrical components, which could be replaced in mere months.
• Trump delaying might point to a growing doubt that they could even destroy Fordow, but Simplicius admits that his words are hard to interpret given that he similarly lied about extending negotiations just before Israel struck.
• Simplicius regards Israel to be on what is essentially a genocidal ponzi scheme - you start a conflict, it goes badly, and so to distract from it you start a new conflict, which goes badly, and to distract from that you start a new conflict, which goes badly, and so on. This strange strategy matches the rhetoric of some Zionists which apparently want to go for Qatar, Pakistan, and/or Turkey "after Iran".
• This strategy is now causing very major economic damage to Israel. Some shipping companies, like Maersk, are refusing to go to Haifa, Israel's only operational deepwater/hub port (as Ashdod is too close to Gaza and Eliat under Red Sea blockade via Yemen). The airports are under lockdown, and Israelis are being forced to remain in the country.
• Notable Israeli strikes on Iran have similarly declined, particularly as Iran is ruthlessly hunting Mossad operatives in a dragnet across the nation and is striking Israeli intelligence sites within Israel itself. The shock phase appears like it may be over, and we may now be in the attritional phase. Only US intervention might save Israel, but given Iran's options to counter the US both militarily and economically, Trump is right to hesitate if he isn't merely bluffing.

An interesting piece that tries to answer the question: "Why does everybody in the West think that China's economy is doing very badly when it demonstrably isn't?" from a very capitalist Hong Kong research group thinktanky place:

At an investment conference in Kuala Lumpur recently, I caught up with an old friend and Gavekal client. Over coffee between sessions, we talked about one of the most visible changes of the last few years in Asia: the Chinese cars that have so quickly appeared on roads across the continent. This led us to the comments made in September by Ford chief executive officer Jim Farley. Freshly returned from a visit to China, Farley told The Wall Street Journal that the growth of the Chinese auto sector poses an existential threat to his company, and that “executing to a Chinese standard is now going to be the most important priority.” By any measure, this is an earth-shattering statement.

Making cars is complicated. Not as complicated as making airliners or nuclear power plants. But making cars is still the hallmark of an advanced industrial economy. So, the idea that China is suddenly setting the standards that others must now strive to meet is a sea-change compared with the world we lived in just five years ago.

This led my friend to question how Farley and other auto industry CEOs could have fallen quite so deeply asleep at the wheel. How could China so rapidly leapfrog established industries around the world without all those very well paid Western CEOs realizing what was happening until two minutes ago?

The rest of the piece continues in that more informal style, so I'll just summarize the rest of the article:

During the pandemic, and especially as the Ukraine War was causing chaos, nobody from the West really bothered to visit China, and so haven't seen how things have developed. This is in line with a Dengist strategy of keeping a low profile and not flaunting their capabilities, but it wasn't as if China was stopping them from visiting - CEOs just had other things to worry about with supply chain disruptions.

The author then basically says that China is doing capitalism better than the West, and now the West is (rather hilariously) backing away from jerking off the very concept of globalization and now think tariffs are awesome again.

Next, he talks about how the West has been pretty consistently racist against Asia throughout history, and these racist impulses still very much exist, so they would naturally underestimate China. There's also the fact that China is a communist state, and everybody in the West is brought up on anti-Soviet propaganda (the author doesn't use that word, unfortunately).

He moves on to explaining how the West is assuming that China = Japan 30 years ago, with inaccurate similarities drawn between their economic situations. The West is saying to itself that China will need to do massive fiscal stimulus to keep growing and get out of its "rut", but they don't seem to be considering if this rut is actually intentional, in order to bring down Chinese real estate and focus on more productive endeavors. This graph says it all:

There's no real conception that the collapse in real estate might actually be the policy and not the catastrophic consequence of like, communists not understanding Economics 101. The government explicitly said that this was the goal the entire time. Additionally, the property bust has hit the biggest cities the hardest, especially among millennials, but third and fourth tier cities are doing fairly well (the rural situation is complicated but dissatisfaction is concentrated in older people there). As the first and second tier cities are the most often visited by Westerners, their image of China is disproportionally negative. Meanwhile, in the third and fourth tier cities, there has been an industrial and transportation boom, which has gone almost unreported in the West.

Some more explanations for Western negativity include a general tendency to report bad news more than good news ("China is FIVE DAYS from TOTAL COLLAPSE!" gets more clicks than "Things are doing pretty good in China.") as well as China's lackluster stock market performance relative to its massive improvements, and Americans hyperfocus on stocks.

And, of course, the final contributing factor: that the US is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars to "...raise awareness of and increase transparency regarding the negative impact of activities related to the Belt and Road Initiative, associated initiatives, other economic initiatives with strategic or political purposes, and coercive economic practices.” via the Countering the PRC Malign Influence Fund Authorization Act.

@[email protected] is hosting the news megathread this week while I'm busy irl!

Make sure to head to the US electoral containment thread for everything to do with the election on a domestic level, as we don't want too much US-centric news to flood this thread. Discussion of Harris' or Trump's potential geopolitical impacts is still perfectly fine here.

Nasrallah's speech, courtesy of political_aya on Twitter:

The reason for my speech today is the updates during the past 2 days. I had not intended to speak before October 7 on the anniversary of Al-Aqsa Flood to give an overview and assessment of the past year, but these events require a speech. I must first, before everything, congratulate all Muslims on the birth of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and the birth of his grandson Imam Jaafar Sadeq (AS). We were also meant to commemorate the late Sheikh Hassan Trad today. However, the events do not allow for that.

I must extend my deepest condolences and warmest congratulations to the families of the martyrs, both the ones who rose during the past 2 days, and the ones on the frontlines too. We must also thank the Lebanese authorities, the Ministry of Health, hospitals, clinics, medical centers and organizations, nurses, and doctors. We must also thank everyone who rushed to donate blood and those who offered their organs. We must thank every person who helped transport the wounded to the hospitals. Some people carried them and rushed them to the hospitals, others on motorcycles and their cars. The medical sector is working tirelessly day and night to treat the wounded. One of the blessings of the blood that was shed is the unity we have seen in Lebanon, which we had not seen for a very long time. We extend our thanks to all parties, nations, leadership figures...who condemned this act and offered their condolences, and thank the nations who have sent aid and helped transport the wounded for treatment.

On Tuesday, the "israeli" enemy conducted an attack through detonating pager devices simultaneously. These devices are used by many sectors of Lebanese society, and even in the world, and not only by Hezbollah personnel. On Wednesday, the enemy repeated the attack, detonating walkie-talkie devices. It is not necessary for a brother to be carrying the device to be harmed. It is enough for it to have been set on a table. The enemy has crossed all red lines and all laws in this attack. This is a massive terrorist attack, genocide, a massacre. "The Tuesday & Wednesday massacres" is what we will call them. This is a war crime, a declaration of war...you can call it anything. When the enemy planned out this attack, they assumed there were at least 4,000 pagers spread out across all of Lebanon. This means that the enemy had the intention of murdering 4,000 people in a single minute. By repeating the attack on Wednesday, the enemy had the intention of murdering at least 5,000 human beings. God the Almighty saved us with His Mercy and Generosity. The number of martyrs was lower than the enemy had aimed for because of how the people, ambulances, medical workers...all rushed to save lives. Some pagers were also out of order. Thankfully, this saved many lives.

We formed an extensive investigative committee to study all scenarios, possibilities, and theories, and have reached an almost-definitive conclusion. We are realistic people; this attack was certainly a huge blow on the security and humanitarian level. This attack is unprecedented in the history of Lebanon and our battle against the Zionist enemy, and possibly even the history of the world. This was certainly a huge blow, but this is war; one day our enemy harms us, the other we inflict harm upon them. This enemy is backed by the US and the entire West and has the most advanced technologies recruited for their benefit. I can tell you with utmost certainty that this attack did not break us and will not break us. On the contrary, it will only increase our resolve and determination to continue on in this battle.

Why did the enemy do this? When the blessed Al-Aqsa Flood began, the Southern Lebanese support front was opened. This front has inflicted huge losses upon the enemy since October 8, as they have repeatedly admitted themselves. I am not concerned with what those who do have input or data say, and those who do not follow up on what the enemy says. The enemy cries, "We have lost the North!" They say this is the first time they receive a defeat of this nature in the North. The Southern Lebanese front has been a very effective front alongside the other support fronts. The enemy has repeatedly sent us messages to close this front. They resorted to threats of war, and attempted to differentiate between Lebanon & Gaza. Tuesday afternoon, after the first attack, the enemy sent us a message through official and unofficial channels, threatening that if we do not close our front, they have more in store for us. And so the attack on Wednesday came.

In the name of the martyrs, the wounded, the ones who lost their eyes and palms, and in the name of every person who has taken on the responsibility of supporting Gaza, we tell Netanyahu and Gallant: the Lebanese front will not stop until the war on Gaza ends. Through this attack, the enemy wanted the people of the Resistance to turn against the Resistance. This goal failed on Tuesday and Wednesday when we all saw the stances of the people and the wounded who hope to recover to return to the battlefield. The enemy thought they would destroy the formations and command and leadership units of the Resistance to create a state of chaos and confusion in Hezbollah's leadership. This did not happen for even a moment. What happened these past 2 days did not bend us, nor did it break our spirits or affect our capabilities or leadership. It did not affect our presence on the battlefield. On the contrary, it increased our strength and resolve.

Recently, the entity had been talking about shifting the center of gravity to the North in order to return the settlers. Does Netanyahu think he can achieve that? They think they can create a security zone in South Lebanon so that the settlers can live in peace. I tell Netanyahu: You cannot bring your settlers back to the North. Do as you wish; whatever you do, you will not bring them back unless you end the war on Gaza. This is a challenge between us, and I assure you, by God's will, they will not return.

The commander of the Northern region said their troops will enter South Lebanon. We wish they would do that! It requires massive intelligence efforts to track the troops at the border to target them. It would make our job easier if they came here. We would "welcome" these troops if they came to the South. You may see it as a threat, but to us, this is a historic opportunity! The security zone you dream of in the South will be turned to hell for you troops. You will face the ones you attacked on Tuesday and Wednesday, who have only become more determined to fight.

Allow me to speak with a different tone today, for this attack was done covertly: the reckoning will come, and it will be severe. I will not speak about a date or time. You will know of it when it happens; you will not hear about it before. We will keep plans and intentions for our severe response limited to our tightest circles. You will not hear anything, you shall only see. I hope the Lebanese people hold on to the sense of unity we witnessed the past 2 days, and pay no mind to the petty ones who try to create strife and division.

The enemy's foolish, narcissistic, savage leadership is leading the entity to its demise, to the abyss, God-willing. If they choose to escalate against Lebanon, that will only cause more settlers, these occupiers and land thieves, to flee from the North. I pray to Allah the Almighty to aid our Palestinian people in Gaza, who are being massacred before the world. I pray for the speedy recovery of the wounded to they could return to the battlefield. Your words for us are deeply moving & leave us embarrassed. The enemy does not understand the deep cultural and sentimental relationship the people and the Resistance have. They have failed and will fail to achieve all their goals. God-willing, grand victory awaits us. The days, weeks, months, and maybe even years are between us. This is a huge battle, and it may be a long one.

the debate, especially the parting words, was a fantastic demonstration of the two ways that the American political class as well as citizenry is responding to its decaying empire:

1. denying it as hard as possible and demanding that people disbelieve their lying eyes; everything is fine and if it's not fine, it was because of Trump

2. admitting to it but flailing around trying to blame everybody but themselves; everything is bad but if we oppress powerless minorities hard enough, things will get better

simultaneously hilarious and depressing

Zak Cope, third-worldist marxist and author of Divided World Divided Class and mentioned fairly regularly on Hexbear, has gone completely off the deep end. October 7th was too much for him.

He's now stated his full support for free-market capitalism and colonialism, and is advocating for the rules-based international order as a way to protect from Russian and communist influence, is drawing equivalencies between Nazis and the Soviets, is saying that unequal exchange is not real, centralized planning is impossible, quoting Thatcher, etc.

For many western leftists, now that oppressed people are actually beginning to fight back in (necessarily imperfect) ways, rather than being pitiable victims marching into the sea as Gandhi wished, all left-wing values go out the window and they realize their class interests are aligned against these uprisings. I must admit that I thought a big exposure to the literature and even writing a significant book on the subject would inoculate a person against taking the complete opposite values less than a year after they held those values, but Zionism is a stubborn little tumor which can rapidly take over the body once it awakens.

In a meeting with Blinken, he expressed that if Palestine were allowed to join the UN as a state, this would mean that the US would be forced to defund the UN, which would then lead to programs being underfunded. This includes the World Food Program, which helped 150 million people get food in 2023.

The threat is, therefore: allow Palestine in, and millions will starve.

PLEASE HAVE SCEPTICISM FOR INCOMING NEWS REPORTS.

PLEASE HAVE SCEPTICISM FOR INCOMING NEWS REPORTS.

PLEASE HAVE SCEPTICISM FOR INCOMING NEWS REPORTS.

There will be a shitload of information and misinformation going around in the coming minutes, hours, and days. Treat every single video or image as false, or from years ago, until otherwise (reasonably) proven true.

Please don't swamp the megathread with reports of "X place has been hit" or "Y place has just been assaulted". Wait at least a little while. Even just 10 minutes. If you absolutely MUST post about it and cannot contain yourself, as is the Hexbear nature, at a minimum preface the comment with something like "unconfirmed report suggests".

edit: quiet before the storm, so unpinning for now. Going to bed. Will repin this comment if/when necessary tomorrow.

Israel trying to pass the hospital bombing off as Palestine doing it is utterly disgusting and guarantees Netanyahu a spot in the deepest pit of Hell for all eternity, obviously, but do not forget that

a) the only reason why Westerners will believe it is because they want to believe it - they are not being brainwashed and this is not some masterful propaganda being weaved around us to turn kind-hearted people into monsters,

b) no Westerner opinions matter at all. In most Western countries there is no real anti-Israel option to vote for even if they did realize that Israel was a giant factory for crimes against humanity, and Westerners protesting against things in general almost never achieves anything (tens of millions protested for BLM in 2020 and not only did the situation not change, it got worse), and

c) the people whose opinions do matter (both the people in the region, and the leaders who aren't already Zionist compradors) already know that Israel is full of shit and that they just murdered nearly a thousand civilians in a single bomb attack.

It is despair-inducing to think that the genocidal Zionist entity is so brazenly, so smugly getting away with bullshitting this away into a cloud of confusion, as they release their metaphorical squid ink just like they did with the stupid babies story, but the propaganda and the media narrative that they are creating isn't what matters. It cannot address the fundamental contradictions ripping the country, the region, and the world apart any more than masterfully-applied makeup can fix a stab wound. It can merely obfuscate.

Israel could drop a nuke on Gaza and the Western media would start saying that Hamas has a WMD program and tested it on their own territory

truthfully though it doesn't matter what westerners think. most propagandized people in world history. western politicians are perfectly aware that Israel just dropped a JDAM on a hospital and they do not care and will happily go along with the story that it was Hamas. what matters is what the rest of the world thinks, and particularly what Middle Eastern powers think. I don't think this is enough to sway them - I don't think 2.4 million Gazan deaths would be enough to sway the oil capitalist ghouls, in fact - but I do at least hope that they'll turn a blind eye to Resistance involvement if they ever decide to go in

Colombia has expelled the Israeli ambassador, hopefully starting a trend