That was always true. Remember when Putin was rolling in to "denazify" Ukraine at the beginning of the invasion? Russia's propaganda apparatus labels literally everything they don't like as Nazis or fascists. Between that and the tanks around Kyiv, it is clear what was happening.
this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2022
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Yogthos before Feb 2022: Russia is not going to invade Ukraine
Yogthos now: Russia cannot leave Ukraine
you ok?
Seems like a fair crit.
I've explained my rationale for why I did not think Russia would go to war in Ukraine. As most people, I thought a conflict would be too costly and Russia could get what they wanted through diplomatic ways. Clearly that wasn't the case. I'm not sure why people think this is such a gotcha. We all make analysis based on the information available, and nobody has a crystal ball that predicts the future perfectly.
Right. I didn't think Russia was going to invade either. But it's still a fair crit. I was wrong. I admit I was wrong. You might consider it an opportunity for self reflection.
As I've already said, I was wrong about my predictions based on the information available to me and my understanding of the geopolitical situation. I'm not sure what else you're saying I'm supposed to self reflect on. Nobody can predict the future accurately, there are always variables that aren't visible to us.
Yes but you might consider that there are things not visible to you now. You tend to be quite strident on geopolitical discussions.
I spend a lot more time following these things than most people. It's always possible something surprising will happen, but so far things have progressed largely as I thought they would. I expect that in the next few months things will become much more clear overall as well.
I am only recommending introspection and self criticism.
You don't need to defend your previous stance to me. I made the same mistake.
I don't think I've ever argued against either introspection or self criticism here.
You mean articles like this one? That took me 10 seconds to find. Come on, at least put at a little effort into fact checking yourself.
It's pretty obvious that coverage of nazis in Ukraine has gone down dramatically, and when there is coverage their role is downplayed as seen in your article:
Though Azov remains a fringe movement in Ukraine, it is a larger-than-life brand among many extremists.
The article then proceeds to flat out false statements. Zelensky is doing the opposite of developing democracy. He literally banned all the left wing parties in the country, and hasn't banned a single right wing party. You sure wouldn't get that impression reading the following though:
Ukraine is a developing democracy, which far-right extremists oppose as contrary to the fascist governments they want to see.
The article sets up a false narrative that there's a fringe far right movement in Ukraine that's attracting western nazis. Meanwhile, the reality is that Ukrainian government is itself full of nazis and has direct ties to the most extreme elements like azov.
In fact, Zelensky was funded by the same oligrach that funds Azov. US state department quietly took down their page on this, but thanks to the wonders of the internet archive you can read it here.
So yeah, thanks for providing an example to support my point there.