this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2022
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you ok?
Seems like a fair crit.
I've explained my rationale for why I did not think Russia would go to war in Ukraine. As most people, I thought a conflict would be too costly and Russia could get what they wanted through diplomatic ways. Clearly that wasn't the case. I'm not sure why people think this is such a gotcha. We all make analysis based on the information available, and nobody has a crystal ball that predicts the future perfectly.
Right. I didn't think Russia was going to invade either. But it's still a fair crit. I was wrong. I admit I was wrong. You might consider it an opportunity for self reflection.
As I've already said, I was wrong about my predictions based on the information available to me and my understanding of the geopolitical situation. I'm not sure what else you're saying I'm supposed to self reflect on. Nobody can predict the future accurately, there are always variables that aren't visible to us.
Yes but you might consider that there are things not visible to you now. You tend to be quite strident on geopolitical discussions.
I spend a lot more time following these things than most people. It's always possible something surprising will happen, but so far things have progressed largely as I thought they would. I expect that in the next few months things will become much more clear overall as well.
I am only recommending introspection and self criticism.
You don't need to defend your previous stance to me. I made the same mistake.
I don't think I've ever argued against either introspection or self criticism here.