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The Low-Down: Ukraine's Drones Are Breaking Russia's Defenses. The Kremlin Has No Answers
(www.thelowdownblog.com)
Ukrainian drones and missiles have logged more than 1,500 verified strikes in Russian territory since last summer. Attacks on midrange logistics networks and air defenses are opening the skies for ever-deeper strikes on petroleum facilities and other strategic assets from occupied Crimea to Russia’s sub-Arctic, according to open-source intelligence analyzed by the Kyiv Independent newspaper.
Ukraine launched 7,000 in March alone, the first month in which the country fired more drones into Russia than Russia sent into Ukraine, according to data reviewed by ABC News.
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Both countries cut down on air attacks for an informal three-day ceasefire during the commemoration of Soviet losses in World War II. But days later, Ukrainian drones struck Moscow in the largest attack on the Russian capital yet, killing at least three.
Putin, seeking to tamp down mounting bad news, has restricted internet access, including the ubiquitous use of the Telegram messaging platform, drawing anger from an increasingly skeptical public.
Russian analysts say grumbling about the war is growing in the populace and among the president’s elite supporters alike. The country’s general happiness index fell to a 15-year low in April, as measured by state-controlled surveys.
“You begin to wonder whether Putin’s aura of omnipotence isn’t just beginning to waver slightly,” said Tim Willasey-Wilsey, senior fellow at Royal United Services Institute, a security think tank based in London. “If Ukraine suffered its worst moment over the winter, I think Russia is suffering its worst moment just about now.”
Ukraine’s show of strength does not mean it is on the verge of prevailing, analysts say. The front line, if largely unmoving, remains white-hot. Ukrainian officials recorded 233 combat engagements on a single day last week.
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The drones fly both ways, of course. Russia continues to pound Ukraine’s energy grid, and in April killed at least 238 civilians and injured 1,404 injured, according to United Nations monitors.
Zelensky, in virtually every public statement, hammers on the need for more air defense help. Ukraine is bracing for shortages of U.S.-supplied Patriot interceptors amid the Iran war and the need to replenish batteries across the Middle East.
Still, Ukraine is starting the summer with mounting confidence.
“It’s very cautious,” said retired Gen. Gordon B. Davis Jr., a former deputy assistant secretary general of NATO and senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “But yes, there is optimism.”