Trump will never agree to reparations, but Trump is asking too much. He wants Iran to hand over its enriched uranium to the US. Iran would probably agree to giving its enriched uranium to Russia, China, or Pakistan. Trump also wants Iran to stop its long-range ballistic missile program. That's unnecessary. Without a nuclear warhead, a ballistic missile is not that destructive. Iran would probably be willing to drop its reparations demand if all sanctions are lifted.
Iran is playing hard ball. If the US doesn’t meet their demands, they can charge ships and strangle US trade indefinitely. If the US agreed to everything, then they might convince Iran to do most of their oil sales in dollars for a little while, as that’d be the currency Iran would receive their reparations in.
Sounds good. I'm willing to continue paying higher fuel prices for that coming true.
But could someone walk me through the scenario of no peace, Iran blocking oil going through the strait of Hormuz indefinitely. What happens then? Where does oil come from for the rest of the world? Who benefits?
Who benefits?
People who bought the right stocks. So basically, not you. I'm not trying to be mean, but if you're asking this question, you're clearly on the losing side of this move.
Where does oil come from for the rest of the world?
It doesn't- demand destruction and economic recession is the result.
Reserves are being drawn at a crazy rate right now to compensate for Hormuz being closed, but that will collapse by the end of June and there will be some huge price spikes and physical shortages. The world economy will need to contract by 5% or more to stop using the oil lost by Hormuz until alternative pipllelines open, supply chains begin de-fossilizing, and alternstive supplies take up the slack with multi year leadtimes.
Next two years are gonna be really fucking bad.
That isn’t likely. At worst it’s closed until the end of trumps presidency. At best Dems take the house and senate in midterms and we forcibly remove Trump and forcibly end the war. Looks optimistic for the latter or somewhere in between.
If the war continues without peace we could probably see prices rise significantly in the next year as more and more businesses shutter their factories because they can’t afford fuel or other petroleum based products. At some point OPEC will increase supply and the situation in Venezuela will stabilize and they’ll start producing more oil but I doubt we will see any significant decrease in inflation with the war ongoing. Also Russian oil will look more and more appealing as long as the strait is closed so at some point I expect countries to begin buying more and more Russian oil.
At some point OPEC will increase supply and the situation in Venezuela will stabilize
OPEC spare capacity has been a myth for quite some time even when it's not shut in by transport problems, and Venezuela oil is not suitable for most world refineries and requires a shitton more expensive refining as it is extremely heavy, thick and sour. Neither can realistically make up the Hormuz deficit until infrastructure either bypasses Hormuz, or Venezuela begins domestically refining again, which will likely take 3-5 years with how decayed and sabotaged all their existing infrastructure is right now.
We are straight up headed for an oil cliff worse than 1973.
What happens then?
Pipelines get built instead
Chinas solar industry most probably...
Sounds perfectly reasonable. But I feel like blocking the straight is exactly what the US wanted. They then just have to control all the other trade chokepoints and Europe can suck on their saggy oily tit.
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