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this post was submitted on 19 May 2026
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That isn’t likely. At worst it’s closed until the end of trumps presidency. At best Dems take the house and senate in midterms and we forcibly remove Trump and forcibly end the war. Looks optimistic for the latter or somewhere in between.
If the war continues without peace we could probably see prices rise significantly in the next year as more and more businesses shutter their factories because they can’t afford fuel or other petroleum based products. At some point OPEC will increase supply and the situation in Venezuela will stabilize and they’ll start producing more oil but I doubt we will see any significant decrease in inflation with the war ongoing. Also Russian oil will look more and more appealing as long as the strait is closed so at some point I expect countries to begin buying more and more Russian oil.
OPEC spare capacity has been a myth for quite some time even when it's not shut in by transport problems, and Venezuela oil is not suitable for most world refineries and requires a shitton more expensive refining as it is extremely heavy, thick and sour. Neither can realistically make up the Hormuz deficit until infrastructure either bypasses Hormuz, or Venezuela begins domestically refining again, which will likely take 3-5 years with how decayed and sabotaged all their existing infrastructure is right now.
We are straight up headed for an oil cliff worse than 1973.