To me, this article seems to be arguing that Trump will probably end up in the General election, but will lose by a wide margin because he has become more extreme and has pending legal action against him. I would say this sounds pretty similar to what many argued in 2016, though circumstances are admittedly very different now. What hasn't changed is my lack of faith in a large percentage of the American population who either don't vote or vote in hatred.
this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2023
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It's weird how people still bring up 2016 like 2020 didn't happen. I get it, we can't know for sure and people got burned that one time. But he's hardly a winner.
In fact he lost the popular vote both times and the candidates he backed during the midterms lost for the most part. His entire track record is losing.
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2016 was pure gift. He was as surprised as everyone else when he won. He's all in now, it's that or prison.
Promise?
This article was like... if a YouTuber had a journalism job but no training. Pretty hard to read and editorialized heavily.
Don't believe anything you read about the trump machine imploding.
Vote. Don't be complacent.
I sure hope so, but I won’t be holding my breath. Can’t fix stupid and there is a lot of stupid.
If I stepped on a dog turd and smeared it down the street, would you say I ruined it?
Is Trump the turd and the GOP the street in this analogy? Or the turd is the GOP and Trump the one stepping on it?
Yes.
This exact same article was written in 2015.
It is 100% worth remaining hungry, remaining diligent, remaining skeptical, remaining active.
But we are in a very different climate right now. I think the big difference is that unlike 2015, people have actually seen what a trump presidency looks like. There are absolutely republicans that will refuse to vote for him, and he was bad enough that he will drive record high turnout from democrats.
Ah yes, because the stable genius depended so heavily on his marbles when he won the first time.
He's losing some marbles nobody knew he had any more.
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Uhh, what the hell is this article talking about? His approval has remained steady with both Republicans and all Americans, and even saw a small uptick recently..
Sounds like they’re still operating under 2020 and 2022 logic. Biden is pretty widely disliked nowadays outside his own party and 2024 should in no way be viewed as an easy Dem win.
outside his own party
That's probably true but that party keeps getting bigger.
By the survey numbers that’s untrue, in terms of the share of voters. Gallup polls indicate the share of people who identify as Democrats has decreased consistently for about a decade, with a heavier decrease in the past three years.. Republicans have remained consistently lower than Dems, but that margin has shrunk considerably over the past decade. Independents make up the largest (and only growing) share of votes.
Granted, this is just survey identification. I have no doubt voter registrations are much more partisan. But, I’d argue being de facto corralled into one of two political parties due to voter registration requirements isn’t the same as a “growing party”.
This is a very weird poll
in terms of the share of voters
I would argue that the huge amount of independents is everyone saying that they don't want to be pigeon holed into anything online. No one wants that mail. We'll never know how many R's we've lost to the pandemic either, a lot of those states didn't keep track of the deaths. I would never go on a Biden is awesome tour but he's done way better than I ever thought he would/could. Trump & Desantis are actively and openly destroying democracy. So even if I call myself an independent, it's an easy vote.
So I hope I don’t come off as too aggressive or anything here, I just want to combat as much of the classic Reddit misinformation while this space is still small
the huge number of independents is everyone saying that they don’t want to be pigeon holed into anything online
That isn’t how a Gallup poll works. It’s a randomized phone survey with elected participation. Now obviously there’s inherent self-selection bias with any such survey, but it’s still at least an indicator of trends. This type of poll is the best for assessing party sentiment, which is what the subject of the article is about and what my original comment was addressing.
We’ll never know how many Rs we’ve lost to the pandemic either
I don’t understand why people started thinking this? States may have done a bad job reporting cause of deaths, but the death still gets reported. Like… do people think there are a ton of unmarked graves in Florida or something?
Excess deaths modeling over 2020-22 means it’s pretty easy to figure out how many people died in the pandemic. Whether those people were R voters can be reasonably predicted from county/demographic makeup, such as this study here..
But to your point, if all we care about is who votes for whom in 2024, we can just survey that too. And surveys from basically every site, R or D funded, have the race at a dead heat with Biden only slightly edging out Trump.. Now as we learned in 2016, polls can be very, very wrong, but they’re really all we’ve got at this juncture.
Again, hope you don’t read this as aggressive, I just want people to be better informed and stop listening to blog posts like they’re legitimate truths.
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Can't wait for the whole Republican party to go extinct
Doubtful. The more he rants and the crazier it sounds, the more his supporters love it. They foam at the mouth for his schtick.
Flood the media with as much insane rambling as you can. That way, when you tell the truth, it still sounds insane.
His supporters will pick what they want from the salad he spits out and eat it up. Meanwhile, his dissenters have to work through it to make sense of it.
He's been playing psych games since day one.
GOP has been pulling themselves down for decades. Trump is just pointing it out more effectively.
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Inshallah
Lord willing
Too bad the democrats cheated Bernie twice in a row.
Nobody cheated Bernie. He just wasn't popular enough to win. My god, move on.
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2016, I agree. He was cheated and could've beaten Trump.
2020? Not so sure. Even Bernie himself admitted that Joe Biden's pro working class policies and bottom up, middle out economic plan was very similar to his. He even said that his campaign team was so glad that Joe Biden didn't run in 2016. Bernie himself stated that Joe Biden was so sincerely for the average working American, that even though Biden was basically "Bernie Lite", he wasn't sure he could win against Joe.
If we look at what Joe Biden's been doing for this country, including passing the infrastructure bills, limited gun restrictions, and the Inflation reduction act, we see that he is kind of "Bernie Lite" and honestly, it's SO much better than Trump, that I'll take it.
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I've heard this song before and I'm not dancing to it again
I have doubts. I can already see a low Dem turnout on the horizon. They need to push the mail-in ballot advantage again now that many are back in the office.
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Article published May 26, 2023
Get some popcorn?
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