NNOOOOOOOO. Don't grind the market before you are ready to drink it! It'll lose all the freshness!!
this post was submitted on 09 Mar 2025
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I'm just glad I quit coffee a year ago. I've known for a long time that coffee prices have been held artificially low and could explode at any moment.
It’s kind of a conspiracy theory of mine, but I’m trying to wean myself off coffee because I expect a price hike to come sooner or later. The majority of the Western world can’t get through the day without it, and I expect most people will still pay for it even when the price goes up.
Time for everyone here to research: Chickory. Alternative to coffee and you can grow it at home.
First eggs, now coffee?
Man, my breakfast is getting real slim nowadays.
It's like those people saying quit your every day coffee/breakfast/lunch/cigarette and you will afford a house.
Quit your house so you can afford instant coffee.
Finally, housing issues solved
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The coffee price hikes have stemmed from lower production in important coffee growing regions, particularly in top grower Brazil, reducing the availability of beans.
That's the closest I could find in the article as to a reason. It'd be nice to know if it was just a bad year or if this is going to be a permanent challenge going forward due to climate change or some other factors.
Coffee is quite sensitive to environmental factors and only grows in certain specific regions as a result. Those factors are being upended by climate change. Coffee is going to very rapidly become a luxury product.
Billionaires don't care. Twenty dollars or two dollars for a cup is effectively the same price to them; insignificant. It's the rest of us that get fucked.
Except we are nowhere near a situation like that. Articles like this don't tell the actual prices because they are so small people might start questioning why they pay so much for coffee.
The poll had a median forecast for arabica prices at the end of 2025 of $2.95 per pound, a drop of 30% from Wednesday's close and a loss of 6% from end-2024.
$3 per pound - $6 per kilo. Or to put it in another way, 4.8 cents per shot of espresso, two of which go in a 16 oz Starbucks latte that costs you $5.75, which would be enough money to buy 120 shots worth of bulk arabica.
If that goes up by 7% or 70% or 700%, the cost of that latte should hardly change.
Logistics cost money
Shucking and processing the beans costs money
Roasting the beans costs money
Exactly. And all of those stay the exact same price even if raw coffee price increases, meaning the price of a ready made cup of coffee hardly changes as the actual raw bulk coffee is only 1/60th of the total price of a starbucks latte.
How about this explanation:
There is a reduced supply of coffee beans. Let's say 30%. This requires that 30% of customers have to be priced out of the market.
If the coffee shop owners only increase the price by several cents then the demand stays the same. They have to fight for coffee beans which drives up their costs step by step.
However, if they increase the price in advance, and far more than necessary right from the start, then the reduced demand matches the available supply and the value of the coffee beans roughly remains the same which allows them to profit from most of the price hike.
There is a reduced supply of coffee beans. Let’s say 30%. This requires that 30% of customers have to be priced out of the market.
this is fiction writing. you are literally making that up
What do you mean? There are globally less coffee beans available. Or do you mean the 30%? That's just an arbitrary number, as I tried to make clear by writing "Let's say ...".
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You're forgetting the most obvious factor: charge the most people are willing to pay.
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Coffee can be a pain to grow. As someone else mentioned, you have to have the right environment (rain, sunshine, soil, etc).
Adding to this is that it’s easier to grow other things that are in just as much demand. Vietnam has switched to growing durian fruit — less fussy and makes them just as much money.
Coffee is also quite carbon intensive.
From what I've heard this is largely due to bad weather due to climate change, as I understand it, we should not expect coffee prices to ever go back to where they were.
For the past 4-5 years it seems prices have only gone up here. It's more than triple now of what it used to be before Covid, and that's only 5 years!
But I'm not an expert, this is just what I've been seeing as a heavy coffee drinker in the supermarket, and what I've gathered from short news tid-bits.
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It's also due to very bad weather/floods in the second largest producer, Vietnam.
And since extreme weather events are increasing in intensity and frequency, it's not going to get better (as a trend at least).
Caffeine tablets it is then... Oh wait I bet those are going to be affected too. Fun times
Cocaine it is then.
I picked the wrong week to quit methamphetamines.
Looking forward to price hikes far beyond the actual cost to middlemen. The eggification of another good.
Already happened to chocolate. Raw cocoa is currently around 10% more expensive than it was at the same time last year - but chocolate products at retailers has shot up 40% or more. Including brands where cocoa isn't the dominant component ingredient like milk chocolate.
Yet businesses like Lindt are celebrating a 7.8% increase in sales... Make it make sense to me cos I buy far less now. Who are the people who see these increasing prices and buy more 🤡
Source data: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa
Decades ago, in undergrad, I wrote a paper on recessions and the effects on everyday items. Oddly enough, the less money people have, the more likely that they will spend a tiny amount on luxury goods like chocolates. You add up all those people who buy small boxes of chocolates when they normally wouldn't, and you've got your uptick in sales.
Yep, becomes a lot less important to save towards something when you have less than before. Those small luxuries are a mental health savior. That plus all the feel-good chemistry that happens with things like chocolate.
There's no sense in saving towards something when it has suddenly become more than you could ever afford. Might as well buy some chocolate, it's good for morale.
The GF and I were looking at houses a while back but never pulled the trigger. Fast-forward 4 or 5 years and now we will literally never be able to afford a house because the prices are fucking outrageous. We've given up and just spend our money on decent food instead.
Housing is so loony right now. I managed to borrow enough to make a downpayment before it got really crazy. For everyone's sake I hope the market gets flooded with affordable units and crashes the values back down to where they were in the 90s.
I'm sorry for all the single mortgage havers whose savings is all their house, but we're already better off than so many people just by paying the bank directly rather than a fucking land lord.
Finally! I'm so glad people are starting to realize just how much we're getting fucked.
"Product costs 5% more to bring to market? Better increase the price by 20%!"
So, how much longer until we have to start drinking soycaf?
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