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[–] 94 points 2 years ago (6 children)

Everyone saying "they can evacuate" clearly doesn't remember how bad the covid response was.

There will be anti-space conspiracy theorists. The ownership class would demand people continue working until the last possible minute (and beyond). It would be politicized, because some people are unbelievably stupid, cruel, and selfish, and enough people are so stupid they'll buy in.

Now, if we could make the meteor fall on a location occupied solely by the people who don't believe in science...

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  • [–] 21 points 2 years ago

    Also the impact risk corridor passes through states that are poorly equipped for large civil defence operations: Ethiopia and the CAR are in civil wars, Yemen is in a civil war with the majority of the country under the control of an unrecognized government, and the South Sudanese government is quite week—being at peace only for the last 5 years

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  • [–] 10 points 2 years ago

    Everyone saying “they can evacuate” clearly doesn’t remember how bad the covid response was.

    or not paying attention to political winds welcoming the evacuees.

    It would make sense to have a more cooperative world, even if cooperation involves "victims" compensating those able to protect them. Hope the US can continue to contribute tracking resources, at least.

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    [–] 46 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Thankfully I live in the USA where we're totally safe because we reject science! But don't you try coming here for safety, we hate everybody else. You'll probably just be sent to gitmo.

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  • [+] [S] 43 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)
  • [–] 15 points 2 years ago (5 children)

    this is my favorite poker sim

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  • [+] [S] 11 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)
  • [–] 15 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    it's definitely balanced towards giving you better hands.

    I've pulled like 8 royal flushes out of it with less than 10 hours spent playing poker in there. I've never even seen a royal flush in other contexts.

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  • [+] [S] 13 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 child)
  • [–] 7 points 2 years ago

    haha, that's why I've put almost 10 hours into it.

    i suspect most mini games start to show their problems and biases when you spend 10 hours playing then lol. like, gwent was sick, but it really was just about stacking the most strong cards intoa single deck as you could.

    caravan though... that was a great damn mini game. the interactive and believable element of needing to go around and collect old world playing cards to build out your deck did a lot to extend the game into the broader world. more than that though, it's a genuinely playable and relatively balanced game. i happened to have a lot of incomplete card decks lying around when i grew up. eventually i repurposed those into one big deck that would get split in half to play with people irl and a randomized deck. only fantasy card game I've ever been able to recreate and play at home without buying anything. and it even played pretty well.

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  • [–] 34 points 2 years ago
    [–] 26 points 2 years ago (5 children)

    Outside of extremely extenuating circumstances, this isn't a worry. We already have proof-of-concept tech like DART to divert asteroids, aerospace engineers can use this to get governments to fund them even better, asteroid goes behind the sun for 3 years, asteroid diverting technology advances even further, in 2028 when the path of travel becomes more precise the chance of hitting us gets revised down to zero, and we've advanced our technology should anything more serious come our way in the future

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  • [+] 24 points 2 years ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (7 children)
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    [–] 21 points 2 years ago (7 children)
  • [–] 15 points 2 years ago* (6 children)

    Am I being wooshed? It's impossible to get a flush with the two spades. Or the Aces.

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  • [–] 18 points 2 years ago (5 children)

    The sad thing is that according to Scott Manley video the areas it can hit are equatorial Africa or South of India, so lot of countries will try to ignore it

    Until those countries start planning a meteor re route, which if done improperly could push the impact zone anywhere.

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  • [–] 16 points 2 years ago (14 children)

    So what level of calamity are we talking about here? 3% doesn’t sound that low to me.

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  • [–] 33 points 2 years ago (8 children)

    I recall hearing it was medium-ish nuclear weapon sized, but not wipe out civilisation size. Wherever it's heading would need to be evacuated.

    That was a week ago, though, and I'm sure the size projections will be updated as we get more data.

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  • [–] 15 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

    This is correct. Current estimates place a possible impact event at an energy release of ~7.8 Megatons of TNT. Approximately 500 times the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Comparable to the Tunguska Event. This is accounting for current size estimates under 100m in diameter.

    It is a very serious asteroid. The Tunguska Event could have killed millions of people. The primary reason it didn't was because it happened in the middle of Siberia. The primary witnesses to the devastation were local native groups who still lived that for out, of which there were few. It wasn't properly investigated for over a decade because of the remoteness of where it happened and the low priority as it didn't affect very many people. If that happened over a major city the consequences would be utterly devastating.

    It's not K-T Extinction event level, but it is nonetheless quite serious.

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    [–] 16 points 2 years ago (1 child)
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    [–] 13 points 2 years ago (4 children)

    I won't believe it's gonna miss us until it gets to 95% likely it will hit

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  • [–] 12 points 2 years ago

    I’m going all in on the potential straight.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 years ago

    I begin to worry when I see this asteroid still in the sky and how it becomes gradually bigger

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  • [–] 6 points 2 years ago

    Risk is probability times consequence. Focusing on the odds without considering the second half of the equation is stupid.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 years ago (10 children)

    Odds are low, but not zero. Still a bit of a nothingburger now that we've been able to successfully land probes on asteroids to sample their contents (and even send back video similar to images taken by Mars rovers). Strap a small thermonuclear warhead to an unmanned probe and redirect its trajectory - not a simple matter but entirely feasible.

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