this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2023
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edit: changed title from 'False Fukushima Fears' to 'Exaggerated Fukushima Fears', sacrificing my lovely alliteration as others have pointed out that it would be too much to say that the fears of radiation leakages are unfounded, but merely to say that this is the least bad option given previous precedent as cynesthesia has pointed out.

Image is of the large array of water storage tanks holding the tritium-contaminated water.

This week's preamble is very kindly provided by our beautiful poster @[email protected], with some light editing. In periods where not much of earth-shattering importance is happening in the news, I hope to do this more often!


In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear incident occurred. Since then, water has been used to cool radioactive waste and debris, which contaminates the water with radioactive isotopes. Currently, TEPCO, the Japanese energy company that is reponsible to Fukushima, is storing about 1.3 million m^3^ of contaminated water (equivalent to about 500 Olympic swimming pools for our American friends) in about 1000 tanks. Approximately 100,000 m3 of contaminated cooling water is generated per year to this day. TEPCO doesn't want to store escalating volumes of nuclear waste for decades until half-lives are spent. This would mean adding substantial storage capacity every year at increased cost and risk of tank spills.

The contaminated water includes heavier isotopes like caesium as well as hydrogen's isotope, tritum. Caesium is a big atom at 137 molar mass (we love our tremendous atoms, folks) while tritium is heavy hydrogen and has only a molar mass of 3 (pathetic, low energy). The TEPCO people are using water treatment to remove heavy isotopes from water, but not tritium. The large adult isotopes are easy to remove with treatment but tritium is incorporated into water, so it blends in with the others. The treated Fukushima water contains low levels of the big isotopes but still contains tritium.

Isotopes release radiation that damages the body's cells. The longer an individual molecule containing an isotope is in a body, the more likely it is that the isotope will go BRAZAP and release radiation that fucks up the cells. Bioaccumulation is a toxicology term for how certain contaminants can accumulate in the food cycle. For example, algae eat contaminants, then the algae is eaten by bugs, then bugs by fish, then fish by people. Isotopes that are bioaccumulative like our large adult son caesium are more hazardous. Tritium is not bioaccumulative because it is effectively part of water. Water cycles through bodies quickly - that's why you sweat and pee and get thirsty. spray-bottle

Fukushima water would be treated and then then mixed with seawater at a ratio of 1:800 before it is pumped 1km offshore. Each year approximately 166,000 m3 of treated water will be released, which will draw down the volume of contaminated water being stored over a few decades. Real-time stats associated with the release are found here. At the point of discharge, water contains about 207 Bq/L of radioactivity, about 16 times greater than the 10-15 Bq/L background level in the ocean overall. Drinking water guidelines for tritium radioactivity range from 1,000-10,000 Bq/L, if one were to drink seawater.

In wastewater treatment terms, this is a small amount of dilution in a very large body of water. It is unlikely to have any measurable impact per the terms of Western science. In the context of mother nature taking yet another one for the team and environmental distress, this sucks. In the context of making the best of a shitty situation, the Fukushima water release is peanuts compared to the many other environmental liabilities that are not addressed. For example, the Hanford Site is an example of a nuclear wastewater storage facility gone/going wrong in Oregon.


Ending note by 72: By far the biggest impact of the release of this water won't be its direct effects, but those on commerce and international relations. Almost half of Japanese aquatic exports go to China, comprising 8% of all Japanese firms shipping goods to China, and they have now been cut off due to their anger at Japan. Perhaps this reaction and the cancellation of imports was inevitable, as nuclear power and radiation in general is a poorly understood, frightening, and thus easily exploitable topic in every country. China is not the first country to use a misunderstanding of radiation risk to try and achieve a goal - Germany seems very pleased with itself - and they will not be the last.

In all: it is unequivocal that China is massively exaggerating the risks of this water's release. However, the bellicose rhetoric and actions of Japan, South Korea, and America are a much greater danger to the region, and none of the three seem to be in any hurry to try diplomacy instead of increasing military budgets and gearing up for war.


It's that time again - every two months I give myself a week off, to rest and recalibrate. Your regularly scheduled programming will resume next week.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


(page 4) 50 comments
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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (8 children)

Initial reports of Ukrainians finally breaching the first line of defence! Don't get too excited though, it appears to only be a smaller infantry group and little armour.

Only 2 more lines to go!

[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Ukraine is currently trying to wedge a cosy little pocket between Robotyne and Verbove, as they understandably don't want to get caught up with frontal assaults on settlements and instead wanna drive on through gaps where they can find them, cut off supply lines from behind, and generally cause chaos. This is sort of the plan for the counteroffensive as a whole but in miniature as they've been stuck in the first phase for two months longer than they wanted. In fact, this is the ideal plan for Ukraine in general - they cannot win an attrition war, so wherever they try and take territory, they must try and breach lines, drive quickly, and cause enough mayhem to force the Russians to retreat. Very unlike Russia's slow, plodding, careful pace. Both sides are obviously trying to force their enemy to fight in a way that is detrimental to them, literally a fundamental tenet of warfare.

This pocket cannot be a good place to be right now. Russian channels note that Ukraine is largely making gains - we still aren't talking anything remotely impressive - on land with low elevation, leaving Russia with control of the heights around them. So, Russia is saturating the area with artillery and aviation fire. That all being said, this pocket is adjacent to the first defense line, so it's plausible that Ukraine is making attacks directly towards it. I've seen nothing yet indicating that they've breached it.

Russia regained (or perhaps maintained) control of the southern edge of Robotyne while Ukraine holds the northern edge. It's probably best to just treat the whole village as being in the grey zone, which is nonetheless an improvement for Ukraine compared to a month ago. If Ukraine can't cut the Russians off from behind in Robotyne then it'll cause problems as Russia can fire on the supply lines heading through any breaches and even if they make it through the first defensive line, they will run out of supplies and thus momentum.

I'm not going to make predictions one way or another who will be successful; I've learned my lesson from the past. Just laying out how things currently stand.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 year ago

I keep hearing this every few days but I also keep hearing its bullshit.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Russia is making gains near Kupiansk. It seems to me that the goal is to hold the line in the south and try and make a push for the Oskil-Donets confluence just a few miles northwest of Donetsk oblast. I think it would put them a good position to eventually take the rest of the Donetsk oblast next year. It doesn’t seem possible to make all those gains this month, but it’ll interesting to see if the Ukrainians in the south or the Russians in the north gain more land.

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[–] [email protected] 37 points 1 year ago

Seems like the positive Ukrainian momentum that started a few days ago in Zaporozhye has stalled again. They're wedged in the low ground between Robotyne and Verbove, and are pretty much surrounded by Russians on the high ground by three sides. Ukrainians have around a month to reach Tokmak now, rain season will start in October, which makes larger mechanised assaults way more difficult. I wonder if Russia has any plan for offensive operations soon, or maybe they will continue absorbing the pressure until next summer.

[–] [email protected] 37 points 1 year ago

This maybe belongs in the general mega but it has to do with the war and I say it's fitting. I just watched the Soviet film "Arsenal" about the January Arsenal factory uprising in Kiev in 1918. The film drags a bit in the first half, and it does become confusing imo as to what the faction and machinations are, but by the third act when the uprising starts it is unbelievably powerful.

The main point of the film is showing how the Ukrainian People's Republic and its declarations of a "Free Ukraine" mean nothing for the workers, peasants, wounded, veterans, widowed, women, elderly, etc. we cut to after the events suddenly with a nurse collecting the dead workers and asking a man who his letter should be sent to only for him to die before answering and her looking directly at the audience as she reads allowed the man's repetition of another worker's question to the "free" leaders earlier in the film: "can one kill bourgeoise and officers outdoors if one meets them?" with her answering "yes, you can" and we get a montage of the fight for the rest of the film. That gave me fucking chills.

Also the montage opens with workers taking a fallen comrade's corpse back to his home as his last request "Served for four years, and in four wars. One year as a civil, brothers. Petliura wounded me by bullet and I feel my heroic death. Bury me at home for half-an hour. I have not seen it for nine years. Hurry up brothers, Arsenal is dying." Which then kicks off an amazing rendition of one of my favorite Bolshevik songs, Song about Shchors. Which Shchors is not in this and will not die yet, he was a Ukrainian Bolshevik and hero, one who gave his life fighting the Polish invaders.

The constant statements by the main character as the nationalist government ask him to identify himself, expecting compliance or him to be happy with how things are since "you are a Ukrainian?" with him answering "I am a Ukrainian worker" to their dismay. Finally we have a montage that is haunting, of the remaining workers and Bolsheviks being executed one by one with some amazing editing, cutting to family asking questions like "where is the father? where is the son? where is the husband?" as we cut back to the executed men falling. Then "where is the metal workers? we have none" which goes on.

The idea is that Ukraine has achieved its "freedom" by destroying the people who actually make the country function, who form an actual community. All that remains are corpses, capitalists, petite-bourgeoise traitors, and nationalist militias. The last man left is our protagonist whose Maxim jams as the enemy encircle him and demand his name "which he simply responds "A Ukrainian worker. Shoot at me" which they do but miss or jam and accuse him of wearing a vest, so he takes his shirt off showing his bare chest and demands they shoot. And it ends with a closeup of his determined face.

The whole thing had me lamenting how Ukraine is back to another Petliura type government. Military and bourgeoise controlled, at the will of foreign imperialists, suppressing the workers. One of those little things that shows the continuity of history, one of the regions which sends a message to the UPR declaring they side with the Bolsheviks is of course Donbas.

https://archive.org/details/arsenal-eng-sub

[–] [email protected] 37 points 1 year ago (3 children)

The more I watch the remnants of the Soviet Red Army blow each other to pieces, the more I find my hope dying.

At least there's NATO equipment getting shredded, the final revenge of Soviet Steel.

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 year ago (22 children)

Let's pretend that tomorrow, some kind of smart and pragmatic leadership were to take over the US and kick the neocons out. What's the best way they could respond to BRICS? Just wondering as a hypothetical.

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 year ago (2 children)

In Denmark, the government agency dealing with child custody and visitation cases is facing heavy criticism for not doing their case work properly.

In several instances women living in shelters had their addresses revealed to abusive ex partners because the agency failed to anonymise files handed to the ex partner. The agency waited several days before notifying the women.

In other instances the agency has counted weekends, where the parents' lawyers are not at work, in deadlines for handing in replies thereby making it impossible for parents to seek counsel. The agency also assigns several case workers to the same case, resulting in decisions being made by case workers who have not spoken to both parents. The agency is also making psychological evaluations of children in far too few cases, thereby depriving the children of the ability to speak their mind on the case.

Budget cuts means that 100 out of 750 employees will be fired from the agency. Meanwhile the succdem-led right-wing government is sending war planes to Ukraine and is ordering a complete replacement of the navy.

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 year ago

Anyone have a link to Zelenskyy admitting he was told that Ukraine wouldn't join NATO but they'd publicly keep acting like it's coming?

[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Do you think far right people look at all the nazi symbols Ukraine uses the same way we view Russians using soviet symbols?

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago

I forget who said this (was it Ramaphosa at the BRICS summit?) - but there was a statement that countries will improve their economies by adding value to products before they are exported, rather than exporting raw materials.

I am wondering, is this really enough? It's obviously a step in the right direction. If a country develops its national productive forces so that different steps in supply chains are found within a country, this has obvious knock-on effects to the economy as a whole. But in the neoliberal capitalist world we find ourselves, I don't think this could be enough on its own. I'm thinking about Arghiri Emmanuel's unequal exchange theory or dependency theory in general.

Does the presence of China change things? Is the idea that BRICS+ countries would further nationalize their economies and develop entire domestic supply chains, and this is good only because they could export to non-western countries and avoid IMF debt traps etc?

Seems to me like the main difference between now and the 90s globalization is that exports would not be intended for the west, and the development would be created through national investment (or Belt and Road) instead of foreign capital.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago (11 children)

The news mega has dunked a lot on the F-16 and possibly justified but if one were to make pessimistic predictions what could it mean to the war?

What if Ukraine manages to hide the F-16's and their runways (or is allowed to base them in NATO territory), if they sort the supply chain out, if Ukrainian command uses the most realistic and intelligent tactics and if the pilots themselves are competent? Would they still be shot out of the sky or could they give Russia genuine trouble?

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Court declared the Semilla Movement slate, led by Bernardo Arévalo and Karin Herrera, elected with 60% of the valid votes.

Minutes later, the Electoral Court suspended the party's registration at the request of the Attorney General's Office.

Guatemala: The Citizen's Registry has issued a provisional suspension of the Semilla Movement (centre-left) of President-elect Arévalo over alleged false signatures, the same charge that was made in the attempts to deregister Semilla before the election.

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[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Curious about how the new Blowback season didn't talk about that guy with a shard of metal in his head sneaking around kidnapping soldiers.

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