this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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Image is from this SCMP article.

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.


Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 40 points 3 months ago (5 children)

English article from Fereshteh Sadeghi on the US-israeli attack on Iran last week.

The Iranian army later in the day announced the death of at least four officers, including a colonel, killed during Israeli air raids in Khuzestan. An informed source speaking to The Cradle on condition of anonymity reveals that the number of Iranian casualties is higher than what is officially being reported.

Details about the Israeli air raids or the extent of the harm to the Iranian military are unclear and patchy at best. Both sides have a vested interest in controlling the narrative: Tel Aviv to project power and deterrence, and Tehran to maintain an image of resilience and minimize perceived vulnerabilities.

Israel says it deployed over 100 F-35 fighter jets to conduct the offensive. However, an Iranian conservative lawmaker on Saturday morning claimed that the strikes in Tehran were actually carried out by small drones or quadcopters.

Hamid Rasaei wrote on his Telegram channel that “the Zionist regime’s agents in Tehran were involved in those attacks and Iranian anti-aircraft guns fired at those microdrones.”

The narrative in the west of the country was different. Images of an Israeli missile’s booster falling in Iraq’s Salahuddin province suggest Israel used the Golden Horizon Air launched Ballistic Missile to hit Iranian radars in the western belt of the country.

The use of Iraqi airspace by Israel was confirmed by the Khatam Al-Anbiya Air Defense Base. It has blamed the US military for allowing Israel to fire air-launched ballistic missiles into Iranian territory from 100 kilometers deep inside the Iraqi soil. No such permission had been granted from Iraqi authorities.

...

Although the official Iranian media have downplayed the extent and strength of the Israeli strikes, University of Tehran academic and political analyst Mohammad Marandi tells The Cradle that “it was a big operation on the side of Israel and actually a considerable one, as Israelis did harm Iranian radar and defense systems.”

Fouad Izadi points to a stellar performance by Iran's air defense systems, in which “Iran was basically able to minimize the effect of this aggression” by Israel.

Marandi, who served as a consultant for the Iranian negotiating team at the last round of Vienna nuclear talks, agrees with the assessment that Iran’s air defenses performed well: “Iranians had conducted security and intelligence operations ahead of the strikes and succeeded in limiting the extent of damage by dummies and decoys as well as spreading misinformation about sensitive sites.”

As he tells The Cradle, the damage inflicted on Iranian military sites was not grave because “the possibility of a direct confrontation with the United States convinced Iranians many years ago to relocate almost all sensitive sites and strategic production facilities underground. Neither warplanes nor missiles are able to penetrate into those underground facilities.”

“What remains on the ground are small workshops producing missile spare parts and they are scattered across the country, but not near borders, that’s why the strike failed to leave a significant harm,” Marandi adds.

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 3 months ago

Road blockade in Virú on the Panamericana Norte, connecting Trujillo to Lima. Peruvians are protesting a wave of crime and insecurity that the U.S. backed right wing coup regime does nothing to curb.

Peruvian National Police (PNP) firing live shots to disperse protesters in Valle de Dios, Chao in the North of Perú. Will the US backed coup regime once again commit another massacre at the hands of SOUTHCOM trained armed forces?

Illegally ousted and detained President of Perú Pedro Castillo sending his solidarity to one of his biggest supporters since the US backed coup, Evo Morales.

[–] [email protected] 40 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

“Sometimes a tug on the ear is a compliment,” said a Brazilian diplomatic source. On Wednesday, Caracas complained to the Brazilian chargé d'affaires about statements made by Celso Amorim, Lula's advisor, and Brazil's stance on the neighboring country's entry into the BRICS.

The Brazilian government believes that the crisis will soon cool down and relations will improve. Next year Brazil should take over the leadership of the BRICS, and by then it's possible that Venezuela will join the bloc.

Regarding the situation of the Argentine embassy in Venezuela, a country that has broken off relations with Venezuela and is under Brazilian control, it should remain the same. While the Brazilian government negotiates the arrest of Bolsonaro supporters who have fled to Argentina.

Maduro's recent comments have been seen as an attempt to shift the blame away from Lula and onto some diplomat, to avoid friction between the two leaders. Maduro also believes he is an ally of the Brazilian government, but members of the Brazilian government are trying to influence decisions against Venezuela.

In a demonstration of good relations, Russia has guaranteed the presidency of the BRICS Bank to former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff, who will serve another term. The Venezuelan government is keen to join this bank to avoid US sanctions. The Brazilian government accused the Carter Center of acting with a bias in favor of the United States, because it did not have enough observers to confirm with complete certainty whether or not there was fraud in the Venezuelan elections. The Brazilian government also criticized the United States for imposing new sanctions and criticized the opposition for not presenting proof that it won the elections and for refusing to participate in negotiations with the government.

Seems like Maduro is pushing the blame to some guy named Eduardo Paes Saboia (he is unrelated to the Liberal Mayor of Rio de Janeiro and Ally of Lula). Maduro stopped talking about Lula in his recent note, idk if they talked via phone recently. I found a picture of this guy with Vtubers lol, he worked at the Brazilian Embassy in Japan for sometime, maybe this was because Japan and Brazil sigined a mutual free-visa agreement?

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 3 months ago (3 children)
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[–] [email protected] 39 points 3 months ago
[–] [email protected] 39 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (13 children)

All the analysts are saying that Israel's attack on Iran failed. They had 100 airplanes in the air.

Iranian air defense (with the help of Russia) is really good. Better than Israel's. And Iran also has better missiles as well!

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 3 months ago
[–] [email protected] 38 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There is something morbidly funny to me in the Zionist line that Yahya Sinwar "died like a dog." Basically just confessing that they regularly kill dogs using drone surveillance and tank shells.

It never looks quite good to compare the killing of your enemies to killing a dog, but if you're gonna use it it needs to be embarrassing for the victim and not your own side, like death by starvation or just plain execution.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Moldovan Runoff elections today, Pro-EU Sandu vs Pro-Russia Stoianoglo

I think Sandu will win by something within a 5-10% margin,but who knows

Ballots are still being cast as we speak

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