this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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One year on. Hundreds of thousands are dying or dead, millions are displaced, the Middle East is undergoing its greatest changes in a generation, Iran has directly attacked Israel twice in one year, and Yemen has proven that the US Navy ain't worth shit. We are the closest we have been to nuclear war (discounting accidents) in decades, but also the fall of Israel.

Because one day, the prisoners of a concentration camp paraglided over a wall.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

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Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 42 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (10 children)

trump has been surging in the betting markets in the last 2-3 days and now looks to be ahead in most(?) of them. what's the newsmega head take on this? is it the expected fallout from the hurricane(s), the dogshit campaign kamala is running, loaded maga sickos skewing the betting markets, or rumors of a brewing october surprise?

[–] [email protected] 32 points 5 days ago (3 children)

Betting markets don't know anything. They routinely get these things very wrong. It's possible Trump will win, but I wouldn't take betting markets as an indication of that.

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[–] [email protected] 33 points 5 days ago (2 children)

The RCP polls are leaning in Trump's favour, so that explains the RCP betting average leaning towards Trump.

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[–] [email protected] 32 points 5 days ago

As a non usasian, I think that at this point it's more about who can mobilize their base more than it is fighting for some imaginary independents. Kamala had some hype at the beginning, but now it's entirely artificial and on reddit. Trump is a known commodity, but at this point he's washed compared to 2016, especially since not even 2 assassination attempts can raise his ratings. I guess in the end, it's better to bet on republicans to go out and vote than the democrats.

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[–] [email protected] 86 points 6 days ago (15 children)
[–] [email protected] 55 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Bourgeois electoralism in theory: People will vote for the candidates that represents them best and get a ruling class reflecting their views!

Bourgeois electoralism in practice: Every major political leader has a negative approval rating. Politicians are universally despised.

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 5 days ago (3 children)

We went from Qaani being a traitor and dying from a heart attack to Qaani not being a traitor under house arrest where he's being interrogated:
https://xcancel.com/MiddleEastEye/status/1844508092005773741

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[–] [email protected] 73 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Rules based order did it again, now Unifil People got injuried by Israel.

William Christou

William Christou reports from Beirut for the Guardian

Human Rights Watch (HRW) called for a UN inquiry into Israeli attacks on peacekeepers belonging to the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) on Friday, after three separate attacks on Unifil personnel in south Lebanon.

HRW said that Israel’s attacks on UN peacekeepers could be a violation of the laws of war, as peacekeepers, including armed members, are civilians. It further called for the UN to “urgently establish” an international investigation in Lebanon and Israel and that their results are made public.

On Friday morning, a Unifil outpost in south Lebanon came under fire. On Thursday, its headquarters in Naqoura had been repeatedly hit, injuring two peacekeepers after an Israeli tank fired at an observation tower on the base. The Israeli military shot at a Unifil position where peacekeepers were sheltering on Wednesday and an Israeli drone flew up to the entrance of the bunker where they were sheltering, Unifil said.

Unifil said its more than 10,400 peacekeepers would remain in south Lebanon until the situation becomes impossible for them to operate. Peacekeepers are already severely restricted in their movements due to Israeli troop presence in south Lebanon.

The peacekeeping force has been present in south Lebanon since 1978, originally designed to confirm Israel’s withdrawal and ensure that armed groups could not use the area as a launching pad for attacks against Israel. Since 2006, it has been tasked with an observation mission to ensure that armed groups do not operate in the area, in line with UN Resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Unifil has also had a focus on facilitating humanitarian access and aid to south Lebanon, a mission it continues to this day.

“With over 2,000 people killed and over one million people displaced in Lebanon since mid-September, it is crucial for Unifil to be allowed to fulfil its civilian protection and humanitarian functions”, Lama Fakih, Middle East and north Africa director at Human Rights Watch, said.

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[–] [email protected] 48 points 5 days ago (7 children)

https://t.me/intelslava/68264

The Russian Federation will begin a strategic offensive along the entire front in the coming days, according to former adviser to the Ukrainian Presidential Office Alexei Arestovich.

"The Russians are building up strike groups. They will attack along the entire front, from Zaporozhye to Kupyansk. They are preparing a strategic offensive. It's a matter of days," he wrote.

It's Arestovich, so take with a big grain of salt.

Now would be a weird time to do big arrow offensives, considering the imminent muddy season. If Russia attacks, I think it will be relatively small, to shape the front line for larger offensives in 2025.

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[–] [email protected] 44 points 5 days ago (3 children)

Denmark's succdem-led right-wing regime is raising military expenditure for the third time in two years. The reason cited is ever-increasinsing demands from NATO for military buildup.

In 2023 Denmark's rubber-stamp parliament voted through an extra USD 21 bln. to be spent on rearmament over the next decade. In the spring the regime added an extra DKK 6 bln. to military spending. This comes on top of regular military spending and in a decade, each of Denmark's six million citizens will have splurged USD 4500 on death and destruction.

It is not possible to tell how much military expenditure is going to rise as a result of the upcoming round of spending as the regime refuses to answer any questions on the scale of the spending plans. However, messages given by the political elite are near-unanimous in their support for fully acquiescing to every demand from their NATO overlords.

The people, lacking access to a free press, are beset by paranoia and jingoism induced by NATO propaganda and support the the policy. In a recent poll 49% of respondents expressed support for the extravagant military expenditure, only 13% expressed a desire for disarmament and de-escalation.

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[–] [email protected] 86 points 6 days ago (2 children)

So, for those who don't know, Paraguay has really close relation with Israel. Paraguay has been ruled by the conservative Colorado party (They are mostly Conservative, Neoliberal and Pro-Taiwan. There are some socdems inside the party though, these were part of the anti-Stroessner guerrilas) since the 1950's, with exception of a brief period in the late 2000's, early 2010's where the Liberals (Sometimes called the Blue Party, they are the Pro-PRC Socdems/Liberals) and Leftist actually won the elections with help from moderate and socdem Colorado politicians.

During the brutal far-right dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, Israel, under the goverment of Golda Meir, approved a plan to pay for 60,000 Palestinians to leave Gaza and go to Paraguay, where they would be used practically as slave labor. The Paraguayan regime saw the Palestinians as ideal immigrants, as they thought were not inclined towards communism because they were muslims.

Only 30 Palestinians immigrated to Paraguay as part of it, and they soon became impoverished. Two of them came to the Israeli embassy in Asuncion to claim money they claimed had not been paid to them, shot the embassy secretary to death because they thought she was calling the police, and wounded another employee.

During the trial, the two claimed that they were lured to immigrate from Gaza to Paraguay, and that they were promised that Israel would help them find a job and learn Spanish. They set off after receiving travel documents, $25 pocket money and plane tickets from Israel via London and Rio de Janeiro. In Paraguay they discovered that they had been misled and the promises made to them were not fulfilled.

The Israeli government placed the blame on Fatah members , but the organization denied involvement. The entire deal was eventually canceled.

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[–] [email protected] 29 points 5 days ago (3 children)
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[–] [email protected] 111 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (6 children)

UK has denied entry to Mandela's grandson the day before the start of his speaking tour through Scotland on apartheid in South Africa and Palestine.

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[–] [email protected] 79 points 6 days ago (31 children)

Obama chastises "the brothers" for not being enthusiastic about top-cop. It's ummm HER turn!

Article

FORMER PRESIDENT OBAMA: My understanding, based on reports I’m getting from campaigns and communities, is that we have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running. I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers. So if you don't mind, just for a second, I'm going to speak to y'all and say that when you have a choice that is this clean.

On the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experience... You have someone who has consistently shown disregard, not just for the communities, but for you as a person And you are thinking about sitting out?

And you’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that. Because part of it makes me think— and I’m speaking to men directly— part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that

Women in our lives have been getting our backs this entire time... When we get in trouble and the system isn’t working for us, they’re the ones out there marching and protesting. And now, you’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you, because you think that’s a sign of strength, because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down? That’s not acceptable.


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