Unfortunately Harris' lead in the polls in the battleground states has dropped a little bit. I'm guessing that is due to RFK Jr dropping out.
this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2024
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Seriously!! People have to stop thinking this is in the bag, because it very VERY is NOT!
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
The numbers, any way you slice it, are 50/50 right now.
Pennsylvania is anybody's game, Georgia is ever so slightly in Trump's favor but even winning Georgia won't get Harris over the line on its own if she loses Pennsylvania.
This is terrifying, honestly.
Trump doesn't care if he legitimately gets the most votes in any particular state. All he cares about is having MAGA election officials refuse to sign off on the counts in order to cause enough chaos and distrust that the MAGA SCOTUS steps in and either hands him the presidency directly or declares enough results invalid that the decision gets punted to a "one state, one vote" poll in the House (which would be absolutely dominated by red states in that situation).
I love that the election is decided by 3 states containing less than 10% of the population
Pennsylvania: 13M
Wisconsin: 6M
Michigan: 10M
Total US: 333M
29/333 = 8.7%
That's like saying the first 94 meters of a 100 meter race don't matter because the last 6 meters decide the winner. If you don't finish the last 6 meters ahead, you've lost.
That's not exactly the best comparison though because you have to run all 100 meters in the foot race, but in the presidential race you basically don't have to run at all in the majority of states.
Zeno’s paradox in political format.
That analogy doesn’t work because in these models it’s a straight tie for those 94 meters and it’s the last 6 meters that are left. If the polling data is accurate (big if of course), then the other 47 states cancel each other out in EC votes, so it’s down to these 3.
Foot races, at the professional level, decided by fractions of a second...
I think you might not understand how analogies work.
I mean, if you're going to use that metric, you might as well go smaller, because a lot of people in those states have already made up their mind. It's only voters who might be willing to choose or adjust their vote that are in play.
Only the states that are still undecided enough to tip, and within those, only the voters whose position is still undecided enough to potentially tip.
Yeah. Not unreasonable to say maybe 1% of registered voters are in play, so maybe 200,00 people or so.
Less than that in the 2000 election even if Gore wasn't fucked over by SCOTUS.
Trump won Michigan by less then 10,000 votes in 2016. Tightest presidential outcome in the states history.
And that was after Hillary both ignored and insulted the rust belt.
Isn't it as much about showing up to vote than about changing minds who to vote for?
Those 3 states are huge, but the other swing states are definitely still a factor. If Harris wins all 3 Blue Wall states, she very likely will win the presidency. However, if she doesn't win all 3, then either candidate's victory will likely be decided by the other swing states - Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.
It's being decided by all the states. Swing states are simply the ones that pollsters can't accurately predict.
Well, on average each state has 2% of the population. So, you could say any state with more than 6m people represents an above average population
It's not but ok
The Republican presidential nominee’s campaign has diverted resources away from Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire
Uh... how many you got left? Is this going to end with Trump doing donuts in a Pittsburgh Walmart parking lot, hoping to swing the Hooner vote?
Money is being poured into the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
Oh, honey. You're not winning Wisconsin.
doing donuts in a Pittsburgh
Well, he could also head down to Philly, and hold a rally at the Four Seasons (Total Landscaping).
That "Oh, honey" got me chortling.
JackNicholsonYes.gif
Solid strategy, right?