Similarly, the job openings rate and the hiring rate have grown apart, as is shown in Figure 2. Both moved closely together from 2001 to early 2020, but then the job openings rate almost doubled, whereas the hiring rate held fairly steady.

Again, it is clear that the sharply elevated vacancy ratios during 2021-2023 do not correspond to a considerably tighter U.S. labor market as measured by a more strongly negative employment gap.

However, recent survey evidence suggests that many firms now advertise positions with no intention of any imminent hiring. Such information allows them to track the replacement cost of their current workforce in real-time and remind current employees that they could be dispensed with.