Image is of military and civilian sites across Caracas which were bombed by the United States as of last weekend.
As everybody has already known for a couple days, the US has abducted Maduro and his wife in a massive operation (of which the exact details are not currently known, but involved hundreds of aircraft and at least some bombing of military and civilian targets), and has threatened Venezuela and the socialist party with further abductions and widespread murder if they do not hand over control of the country directly to the United States. In a statement that really says it all, Trump said that Machado is not being considered for the colonial viceroy position due to her sheer unpopularity. Various parties and countries around the world - and inside the US - have expressed their disapproval, which, as we all know, will not shift US foreign policy a single iota.
A few months ago, when the pressure campaign on Venezuela began, I speculated that Maduro was going to be killed or captured eventually. Flagrantly illegal and violent American military campaigns in Latin America are not new. The US has been invading land, looting banks, assassinating democratically elected leaders, and otherwise overthrowing countries in the region for their own economic benefit for the better part of two centuries, under both Democratic and Republican parties. Unfortunately, we all know that Russia and China are unlikely to do anything meaningful to contest the US in their attempt to more violently assert hegemony in Latin America. I doubt very much that the China of today will come out to bat for Venezuela and start meaningfully pressuring the US economically. For better and worse, we are far from the days of the USSR.
However, Latin America has, historically, met the US in its radicalism, committed to wars of anti-colonial nationalism, and carried out successful revolutions against the dictators placed in control from the US. As history continues ever onwards and conditions develop, I can only assume that we shall once again enter that radicalizing cycle. In that vein, the big question on my mind, and everybody else's, is: what comes next? Does the Venezuelan socialist party have the social and military cohesion to wage a years-long guerilla war against occupying troops? Can they quickly transition from a conventional to guerilla force as their military facilities are bombed, or will it take several years? Can they prevent the theft of their oil resources and make the attempt at foreign occupation more costly in both the manpower and economic costs than what that war will generate? Can Venezuela manufacture weapons for this guerilla war in a state of blockade? Will this military campaign begin immediately upon soldiers landing, or will it take a period of relatively unopposed occupation of months or even years? Will Cuba, Colombia, and even Mexico be in the same situation by the end of the year, with abducted leaders?
Yemen is the very recent proof that seemingly weak countries can force the American military to retreat in defeat. Can Venezuela follow? We shall see what Maduro has done to prepare the country for this war very soon. The only certain thing is that the murderous violence propagated by a trembling and dying empire shall be defeated eventually, whether it takes months, years, or decades, and the end result will be a socialist victory.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
some more theorizing about the American operation
https://xcancel.com/ArmchairW/status/2008422562259169370
https://xcancel.com/cirnosad/status/2008381914261176820
and let me link back to @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net's analysis from last thread, since it was towards the final hours of that thread so I don't think a lot of people saw it
either way, this still points to it being an operation that likely cannot easily be repeated - with the Venezuelan military now properly mobilized and in high readiness, the Americans won't be able to just keep doing cool little special forces raids
I agree. The cyberattack evidence I found also agree with this. A large cyberattack before the attack. It is a surprise rush.
I mean not placing manpads on high alert and old school ak47 with tracer rounds, because manana and not provoking is not a better explanation than treason. Once again, the problem is not radars or missile interceptors, i perfectly believe that seppos can blow them up (aside from the fact they were not even engaged, whatever). You can’t sead your way out of a dude with rpg round, you just can’t. They only have ir reflection signature during aiming, they don’t emit radiation, there is nothing to be targeted.
If i, a random commentator can see it, the average tacticool sergeant in venezuela can see it as well.
And you don’t launch fucking personnel helicopters with 20 troops on board, unless you are 99% sure you won’t meet a dude with rpg or igla round from some window in downtown caracas, like be real. Even 20 helicopters with 8 hellfires each can’t suppress 200 dudes with ak47, you will have to bombard your way through this.
And i can see how such a thing can be defeated by infiltration into chain of command, synthesized ai-voices into stand down commands and things of that nature. that’s the vulnerability of the centralized command, but we don’t have any evidence that this happened (it seemingly did happen in syria). Or swarms of drones, but those were not used as well
WWII era AA could have shot down a dozen helicopters with how low they were flying. Weren't HMGs used by the Vietnamese against helicopters to pretty good effect? A 5ft diameter machine gun trench under a tarp is trivial to disguise or hide, and a 50cal is going to do damage to pretty much anything it hits.
Retvrn to searchlights, flak, and barrage balloons.
The modern left is sorely lacking in the arena of military science, the fall of the Soviet Union brought about a demilitarization both in theory and practice of global leftwing currents
i don't think it's even left only issue, commercial drones were doing shit in syria and yemen since 2015 and all militaries were caught with their asses exposed (not even mentioning one of the america has fallen movies had fairly futuristic, but feasible drone use at the time, so it's in some paranoid brains). and even america was caught, cause they are currently only start to demonstrate some humvees with auto capturing guns (im ignoring german skynex, too expensive too exposed).
leftist analysis would be something like retvrn to anarchist cell structures, your communications will be fucked either way, do everything to avoid concentrations of power or responsibility but not nobody does this aside from actively fighting (so not leftist forces as is) armies and movements. and usa freaks, unfortunately for us all. i'm constantly baffled that military nerds can pull out some arcane knowledge about systems used from open presentations, meanwhile armies likely to encounter those systems be like
Crinsosad is the same person on X that says any explosion= tactical nuclear weapon. They are not serious.
I think there's a lot of of people looking for alternative explanations (you can call it "cope" if you want, but I dislike that term) because they don't want to admit that the technological gap between the USA, and the Russian air defence and Chinese search radars Venezuela has, is that big. The truth is the technological gap is that big, and this leads to some very uncomfortable questions, conclusions, and realities. China is well aware of these uncomfortable questions, conclusions and realities, which is why they're doing the military developments that they are doing. It's why the J-35 exists, it's why the J-20 exists, it's why the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle and DF-17 and DF-27 exist. It's why China wants to build multiple nuclear powered aircraft carriers in the next decade. It's why China wants to build all kinds of flying wing stealth drones. They aren't wasting money, they are highly concerned about national security.
If you're a periphery nation though, the questions this raises are very uncomfortable. Venezuela bought the best they could realistically buy to defend their nation. They bought the S-300VM/SA-23, the most expensive Russian air defence system available for export. Egypt spent over $1 billion on their S-300VMs, these systems are very expensive. Venezuela had a whole brigade of Buk M2E/SA-17, a system that's relatively new (2008 initial operations in Russia) and the most advanced medium range air defence system Russia has exported. Venezuela has 4th generation Su-30 fighter aircraft with active radar guided/fox 3 air to air missiles. Venezuela have the YJ-27 Wide Mat Chinese "anti stealth radars", and a whole other bunch of Chinese search radars. If this is not enough to deter the US, what is? Even if only a third of the equipment was operational, it's still advanced technology.
So for periphery nations, unless they can get their hands on the latest advanced Chinese military technology, they're in a bad position. But periphery nations need to be wealthy enough to afford this Chinese military technology, which will require Chinese co-operation. Said economic co operation will require China to raise domestic consumption, as XHS talks about.
Other problem is that there is not enough systems, not enough layers. US SEAD work so well because he can not afford enough system for main counter to it. For modern air defense network is key. All ways to defeat with EW are directional and can not use too many without harming self as well. More system with more angles can defeat it. EW plane is easy to shoot down for military that can fly jets. More radar even more important for «stealth» aircraft using internal bay because aircraft is not uniform «stealthy». Poor country obviously can not do this. Can not afford cat and mouse game.
Reading your comment and the entire comment thread under your comment about how "why venezuela no shoot copter with manpads" certainly is something.
The Russia-Ukraine war, and videogames have done an untold amount of damage to peoples understanding of what modern warfare looks like. Russia and Ukraine have exactly zero of the capabilities the US used against Venezuela, Russia and Ukraine are fighting WW1 with drones and long range missile strikes on average. They don't have stealth planes, stealth drones, highly specialised helicopters, etc.
It's not as simple as aiming your RPG or machinegun at the helicopter and taking it down. In reality, the US has been observing the movements of all your MANPAD operators and AA guns for months, with RQ-170s and RQ-180s flying directly over you, along with satellites, gathering intelligence on your movements, the timing of your patrols, intercepting your communications. Some low quality decoy AA gun is not going to fool anyone. Then when the US attacks, power starts going out randomly with cyberattacks and high power microwave cruise missiles, your communication with radar operators is cut off, you have no idea what direction the US force is coming from or if your high level air defence is still operational. The patrols and their vehicles, the technicals with MANPADs and AA guns, are taken out pre emptively, along with any stationery machine gun posts.
This is how firing a machine gun at US helicopters went
This is how firing an RPG or IGLA-S went
You can go underground like Hamas and Ansarallah/Houthis did, but that requires conceding a lot.