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250mi is around the right target. This pops out when you do some math on reasonable travel distances, battery charge times, and padding for cold weather.
You don't want to use the first 20% or the last 20% of the battery, so you get down to 60% right there. This improves battery lifetime and also charges faster.
Lop off another 20% for cold weather.
That brings us to 120mi between stops, which is about 2 hours of highway driving between charges. You should be able to charge that in about 20 minutes, which is about right for using the bathroom, stretching your legs, and getting something to eat. If you want to go three hours, then 375mi is the right maximum.
None of this requires changes in battery tech or charging speed.
In short, there's not much need for cars over 400mi range. Use any further advancement in battery tech for chopping off weight, not making them go further.
It is my understanding that you don't fully charge your EV battery typically either. You charge it to 80% of it's capacity and that is your "100% charged" state, for battery longevity. So you are down to %40 of your theoretical range before cold weather and the batteries wearing out over time anyhow.
Right, that's accounted for above.
Gotcha, I misunderstood that part I guess!
Not to mention you need to account for battery degradation over time. A 10 year old EV isn't going to maintain the same discharge rate as a brand new EV of the same model and spec.
So far not much deg on any temperature controlled pack. More like 20+ years of good use.
The old Leafs degraded, but they weren't controlled.