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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is a still of an Ansarallah drone heading to blow up Saudi-backed forces in the port of Al-Mokha in southwestern Yemen.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleIt's once again been a relatively slow week, with "only" quite a few oil tankers being struck in the US's attempt at an oil corridor in Hormuz. I've seen several analysts speculate on just how leaky Hormuz might be despite Iran's attacks, and if it is leaky, then why and to what extent. Now that we're firmly in August, we have noticeably passed the predicted July ETAs on the physical oil cliff (the paper oil price manipulations notwithstanding), and so analysts are trying to find explanations for the current situation, in which various factors are being considered, of which I'll list a few I've seen personally.

First is, as I said, a potentially leaky Hormuz, because it's been revealed that in lieu of official corporate insurance, the US is directly paying captains massive sums of money if they're brave enough to try and run the strait under US air cover - hence why Iran keeps hitting tankers practically daily without them ever seeming to get the message. Obviously, this covert operation by itself would not be enough to even approach pre-war transit levels, and so there must be other factors going on. Second is Red Sea oil redirections predominantly by Saudi Arabia; if this was a big factor, it's something Ansarallah is now actively combatting with their blockade of the Bab el-Mandab and semi-regular strikes on their pipeline infrastructure. Third is that perhaps world oil reserves are somewhat larger than first considered, especially given China deciding to go on a bit of an oil diet over the last six months, and especially especially if countries really start pumping from one-shot emergency supplies; e.g. there's been much discussion by Naked Capitalism about just how much the US could extract from the rapidly dwindling SPR if it no longer cared about the irreversible damage to the storage caverns caused by pumping out as much as physically possible. Fourth and finally, perhaps the data on stockpiles was just bad in such as way that they were being consistently underestimated by e.g. 10% or so. Ultimately, regardless of the many complicated factors involved here, the antsy and indecisive behaviour of the US, as well as some anxiety about the midterms, betrays any attempts at American confidence (e.g. by Bessent) about this becoming a stable situation for even the medium term.

We've also seen some of the fruits of the serious discussions between Iran and Oman over how exactly Hormuz is going to be governed, with one major and intriguing proposal being that Iran could have total control over what vessels enter (i.e. tolling when entering), and Oman has partial control over what vessels leave, with Iran having a veto there too (i.e. no tolling when exiting, but de jure Iranian military control). Iran has come out and said that regardless of what they agree to with Oman, the US will have to make major concessions - at least on the order of the MoU concessions and perhaps even beyond them - for Hormuz shipping to restart. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye have signed some kind of military alliance or agreement of some kind; I'm waiting for some big expert analyses on the many implications before I give any takes here, but it's already been dealt a rather large embarrassment by Ansarallah seeming to not really a give a shit, continuing strikes on both Saudi pipeline infrastructure and also Saudi-backed mercenaries.

And finally, over in Latin America, the Southern Spear Joint Task Force has given way to a new version which looks likely to increase inland strikes, which is a major escalation from the strikes targeting mainly fishing boats, which were presumably done to a) cause socioeconomic fractures in certain countries (largely Venezuela), and b) further the kayfabe that the US is trying to stop drugs entering the US while obviously covertly further amplifying it through friendly comprador countries. While Latin America struggles to find its way forward out of American regional hegemony due to the rather mixed results of both electoralism and warfare (guerrilla and otherwise), what greatly interests me will be how the region's domestic capitalists respond to the attempts by the US to wean them off from China's growing economic sphere. I've wondered previously about whether a potential way out of imperium, in lieu of the ability of the region's working class to take (and, more critically, hold on to) power, will be China, intentionally or not, causing major fractures between the US capitalists seeking a monopoly to loot the continent as much as possible with the absolute minimum domestic development possible to maintain profits, and domestic capitalists who want to trade with an ever-growing China and internally develop their countries for their own self-benefit.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 37 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

Lula maintains electoral leadership against Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil - Prensa Latina

spoiler

Brasilia, August 10 (Prensa Latina) Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential race, according to a poll released today by Nexus/BTG Pactual.

The research states that the ruling party candidate, proposed by the Workers' Party, reaches 40 percent of the voting intentions in a stimulated first-round scenario, five points above the candidate of the Liberal Party (PL).

Meanwhile, former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), appears in third place with five percent, heading into the October elections.

Next are Renan Santos, from the Mission party, with four percent, and former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema, from the New Party (three).

Corresponding to the ninth round of the Nexus/BTG Pactual study, the survey was conducted through telephone interviews from August 7 to 9 with two thousand and one voters from the 27 federal units of the South American giant.

It has a margin of error of two percentage points, the confidence level reaches 95 percent, and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-08428/2026.

In a potential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the president would get 47 percent compared to the senator's 44 percent.

The three-point difference is within the margin of error, so it constitutes a technical tie between the two, according to media outlets such as the Brazil 247 website.

Lula also numerically surpasses the other opponents included in the runoff simulations, which are scheduled for October 25, three weeks after the first round.

Against Caiado, the head of state obtains 46 percent against 42; against Zema he reaches 47 to 40; Renan Santos already surpasses him 46 to 37.

In the spontaneous consultation, conducted without presenting the interviewees with a list of candidates, Lula accounts for 29 percent of the preferences and Flávio Bolsonaro 19 percent.

Of the voters who support Lula in the first round, 83 percent say their decision is already made and will not change, while that proportion among voters in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 80.

By region, the Northeast continues to be Lula's main electoral stronghold, with 53 percent in the first round.

The aforementioned elections will allow voters to choose a president, vice president, governors, 54 of 81 senators and federal, state and district representatives.

For thos interested just on the poll:

First Round:

  • Lula (Workers' Party): 40% (+ 1%)
  • Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party): 35% (- 3%)
  • Others: 20% (- 5%)
  • Blank Vote: 5%
  • Doesn't Know: 3%

Spontaneous survey (when a list is not presented):

  • Lula (Workers' Party): 36%
  • Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party): 29%
  • Others: 9%
  • Blank Vote: 7%
  • Doesn't Know: 19%

Second Round:

  • Lula (Workers' Party): 47% (+ 1%)
  • Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party): 44% (- 1%)

Afaik, Political Campaigns propaganda starts next week, so these numbers will surely change a bit.

[-] umbrella@lemmy.ml 11 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

reminder though, that it's almost certain bolsonaro will try a coup again.

and bolsonaristas aren't placing their poll answers on bolsonaro out of shame, like on the last presidential election. yeah some of them know it's wrong.

it's gonna be tighter than the polls are suggesting.

[-] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 19 points 6 hours ago

Running another bolso-pain ?

Lula needs a successor plan or the Zionazis are just going to insert another stooge. But it shows they have no originality or anything of substance beyond their special family of corrupt fascists.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 11 points 5 hours ago

Lula calling himself a centrist to the IMF chair at Davos to getting ousted by an IMF-backed neolib is gonna be somethin'

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 14 points 6 hours ago

Jair Bolsonaro, president of Brazil (2019–2022) and federal deputy for Rio de Janeiro (1991–2018) (endorsed son Flávio Bolsonaro); On 30 June 2023, Bolsonaro was declared ineligible until 2030 for abuse of political power and misuse of the media after attacking the Brazilian electoral system at a meeting with foreign ambassadors on 18 July 2022, broadcast on the public television network TV Brasil. On 11 September 2025, he was sentenced to 27 years in prison for being involved in the 2022–2023 coup d'état plot.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, federal deputy for São Paulo (2015–2025) (endorsed brother Flávio Bolsonaro); When his father Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible, Eduardo Bolsonaro declared his candidacy for president. After being removed from the office of federal deputy, he withdrew his candidacy and declared support for his brother, Flávio Bolsonaro. On 16 June 2026, he became ineligible for 12 years due to his conviction of coercion in the investigation process of the 2022–2023 coup d'état plot for provoking the 2025–2026 Brazil–United States diplomatic dispute.

The Brazilian Oligarchy (right-wing parties) don't even care about the presidency anymore, ever since they coup'ed Dilma, they installed semi-parlimentarism in Brazil (which the same thing they did in 1961 when they attempted a military coup), they just care about fucking the Supreme Court and keeping their seats in congress. The right is divided between Centrão (they're ones who want to get the most seats in congress and senate and then blackmail and manipulate the Presidency and Supreme Court into giving them money with exchange for them not closing the congress. They even attempted to pass a law that protected all Centrão members from being investigated for ties with Criminal Factions or Sexual Crimes, and they also attempted to pass a law protecting pedophiles andremoveds, but failed after Lula vetoed and the population protested it), and the Bolsonarists/Far-Right (these are delusional people who miss the old 1964 dictatorship, they are just as corrupt as the Centrão but 10 times more dumb and motivated by ideology besides money and corruption).

this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2026
80 points (100.0% liked)

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