My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
For the weekend of August 1-2, Trump had once again promised major strikes on Iran, which would have included crossing the critical red line of striking their energy infrastructure. In response, Iran once again essentially promised to end the possibility of modern civilization as we know it throughout much of the Gulf States and, to a certain extent, the Zionist entity, with the economic impacts radiating outwards around the world from there. The frustrating part about these threats from Trump is that while he's reneged on them before, the consequences of them actually occurring are so dire that it's difficult to ignore them; rolling a dice with even a 5% chance for complete catastrophe will always be nerve-wracking.
Anyway, as we all know, these strikes did not occur, with the excuse this time being much the same as the previous times: our regional allies begged us not to (potentially true) and Iran called us and said they were willing to negotiate/surrender (untrue). The point of these threat displays is at least twofold: first, to see if Iran is genuinely going to flinch, or, at least, if internal elements that may or may not exist will be spooked into action against the IRGC; and second, to manipulate oil prices downwards by creating constant cycles of "relief" out of an otherwise relatively constant downward trend as Hormuz stays closed and oil reserves continue to ebb. I do say "relatively", of course, given that Ansarallah now appears to be delivering a boot up the ass of Saudi Arabia by taking offline quite a lot of its refinery infrastructure.
It is into this situation that Ukraine seems to want in. For those out of the loop, the situation over in Ukraine has largely the same overall attritional dynamics as previous years, but with a few added wrinkles. Ukraine started striking Russian infrastructure a while ago, and while their effectiveness is hotly debated and I don't want to dismiss them as totally ineffectual, it's clear that the psychological effects - such as they are - are greater than the material effects. Russia's retaliation strikes have been considerably more impactful, including strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and vessels, and a campaign explicitly against gas stations across Ukraine, as well as some rather impressive and disruptive explosions at Ukrainian military fairs and production sites. Zelensky has admitted publicly that they are now basically out of Patriot missiles and that Russian missiles are now landing entirely unopposed (beforehand, they were just landing largely unopposed, given the lackluster performance of Western air defences in general). He seems to have considered a possible way out: linking together the Ukraine and Iran Wars to a united front against Russia and Iran, which would then grant Ukraine more munitions to keep fighting on.
Now, for all the fear I've seen of this occurring (and, don't get me wrong, the US and Russia being in non-proxy, direct conflict is a genuinely frightening prospect for continued life on Earth) how linking together two wars which the West is quite decisively losing into a single war would help at all is beyond me. At this moment, at least, US military planners appear to agree with me. Ukraine hit a Caspian Sea vessel going to Iran a while ago, but then seems to have quickly apologised after being given a stern talking to by the US. This shows just how willing the US is to grant Ukraine more aid, as their own interceptor stockpile is running very low due to Iranian strikes. One would almost feel sympathy for Zelensky if is wasn't for... well, everything that's happened. The path of Ngô Đình Diệm is a tough one to walk.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
view the rest of the comments
news
Welcome to c/news! We aim to foster a book-club type environment for discussion and critical analysis of the news. Our policy objectives are:
-
To learn about and discuss meaningful news, analysis and perspectives from around the world, with a focus on news outside the Anglosphere and beyond what is normally seen in corporate media (e.g. anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist, Marxist, Indigenous, LGBTQ, people of colour).
-
To encourage community members to contribute commentary and for others to thoughtfully engage with this material.
-
To support healthy and good faith discussion as comrades, sharpening our analytical skills and helping one another better understand geopolitics.
We ask community members to appreciate the uncertainty inherent in critical analysis of current events, the need to constantly learn, and take part in the community with humility. None of us are the One True Leftist, not even you, the reader.
Newcomm and Newsmega Rules:
The Hexbear Code of Conduct and Terms of Service apply here.
-
Link titles: Please use informative link titles. Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed.
-
Content warnings: Posts on the newscomm and top-level replies on the newsmega should use content warnings appropriately. Please be thoughtful about wording and triggers when describing awful things in post titles.
-
Fake news: No fake news posts ever, including April 1st. Deliberate fake news posting is a bannable offense. If you mistakenly post fake news the mod team may ask you to delete/modify the post or we may delete it ourselves.
-
Link sources: All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. If you are citing a Twitter post as news, please include the Xcancel.com (or another Nitter instance) or at least strip out identifier information from the twitter link. There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance, such as Libredirect or archive them as you would any other reactionary source.
-
Archive sites: We highly encourage use of non-paywalled archive sites (i.e. archive.is, web.archive.org, ghostarchive.org) so that links are widely accessible to the community and so that reactionary sources don’t derive data/ad revenue from Hexbear users. If you see a link without an archive link, please archive it yourself and add it to the thread, ask the OP to fix it, or report to mods. Including text of articles in threads is welcome.
-
Low effort material: Avoid memes/jokes/shitposts in newscomm posts and top-level replies to the newsmega. This kind of content is OK in post replies and in newsmega sub-threads. We encourage the community to balance their contribution of low effort material with effort posts, links to real news/analysis, and meaningful engagement with material posted in the community.
-
American politics: Discussion and effort posts on the (potential) material impacts of American electoral politics is welcome, but the never-ending circus of American Politics© Brought to You by Mountain Dew™ is not welcome. This refers to polling, pundit reactions, electoral horse races, rumors of who might run, etc.
-
Electoralism: Please try to avoid struggle sessions about the value of voting/taking part in the electoral system in the West. c/electoralism is right over there.
-
AI Slop: Don't post AI generated content. Posts about AI race/chip wars/data centers are fine.
https://nitter.net/bonzerbarry/status/2085022669208944927
coupled with inbound trafic using iranian part reporting yesterday, this has all the hallmarks of
champs
How so? This is Iran and Oman agreeing to set up the toll Iran has been asking for this whole time. The US will be forced to "declare victory" and leave within the next few months, and the toll they were not party to remains.
idk how we’ve come so far that setting up a toll partially under iranian control is now falling for it. even the ft is saying it could be reality and they’re not usually on the iranian side
FT reporting on what has always been the case, wowzer.
The goal of this war was not to establish tolls on the strait, that's a small by-product. The goal of this war was to deter Israeli and American aggression, force them to end their invasions and occupations of Lebanon and Gaza, and for maximalists to end the Zionist project entirely.
The strait of hormuz is their one point of leverage to follow through on these goals. Just adding a toll and resuming traffic is not a victory if Lebanon is still occupied, Gaza is still being colonized and slaughtered and Israel/the US stay powerful in the region and build for another attack.
Israel is openly building permanent military bases in Southern Lebanon, they clearly have no intention of leaving per the Iranian demands. If nothing further is done they will continue their creeping spread of Greater Israel unabated. Personally I don't think the proliferation of Greater Israel in exchange for some tolls for Iran is a good trade.
It's leverage but not the only leverage they have, they can earn funds and restrict enemy vessels, while still sending missiles to US bases in the region. Iranian officials have stated numerous times that even with whatever arrangements with Oman over traffic flow, they will not open the strait to general traffic until the US/Israeli aggression ends. Did they say that the toll agreement would be the end of their deterrence? They include Lebanon in the agreement, they can still support Hezbollah and send missiles to bases Israel might build in Lebanon while collecting tolls/fees.
This is trying to have their cake and eat it too. They cannot exert economic pressure on the world through restricting trade through the strait while also collecting tolls on oil through the strait. It’s one or the other, it’s zero sum, and the more oil allowed through even on friendly vessels, the more they undermine their fundamental point of leverage.
Ridiculous simplification. There is so obviously a middle ground which Iran needs. Where enough funds are made to maintain internal stability and defense capabilities but enemy economic conditions continue to deteriorate. 'Zero sum' is a terrible summation of that situation. Iran allowing 1/4 the flow, for example, but profiting enough to quell the rising internal economic problems, still means capitalist nations around the globe will be struggling to maintain conditions.
A point of leverage isn't binary, especially not in this case. American capitalists are going to push to end the war even if Iran allows 80% flow once the material impact of these restrictions is actually calculated into businesses. A 20% drop in oil through hormuz (compared to 2023) is already enough to cause a recession.
Your pessimism is unfounded in this case.
How is having a plan for future control of the strait with Oman “having their cake and eating it, too?” The US was clearly trying to manipulate Oman and Iran is trying to formalize a better arrangement. They never said they were “resuming traffic.” Is planning ahead a sign of weakness?
It's putting the cart before the horse when the US has not even begun to stop their aggression nor has Israel. It signals willingness to re-open the strait and negotiate, this news caused oil markets to drop, which means the wider world is interpreting it that way as well.
If I thought it was purely a future plan that would be one thing, if not a bit premature, but Iran keeps entering into these agreements, like the MoU, which show it's not just talking about the future but is willing to enter the agreements right now.
There's a reason why Russia no longer entertains these negotiation farces and future plans on things not yet established, because they were burned on it over and over and it kept costing them momentum on the battlefield and giving Ukraine room to breath and re-arm. First comes military victory, then comes these sorts of plans. Not vice versa.
Again, you're simplifying something in such a pessimistic way. Iran and Russia are in very different situations. Russia is correct to ignore the attempts at stalling-negotiations because they are in a position of military victory and strength. If the US was attacking Russia directly with its own might, this would be different. Iran is not in a militarily dominant position, instead one of strategic positioning to cause its attacker pain. Completely different strategies and tactics are needed.
i didn’t get the impression the iran-oman negotiations are ending the us/israel-iran war
your comment was that the existence of a toll would be Iranian victory. I don't see it that way at all, if that's the only thing gained. In fact, like sanction relief, I see it as an alluring carrot by which to bait the reformists into compromise (which will, of course, be later torn apart and betrayed by the perfidious west as they always have done in all cases).
If it comes alongside other major strategic victories, then all the better, but alone it is not proof of anything.
on its own it’s not proof of “falling for it” either. it remains to be seen how this plays out, but iran securing control over the straight in isolation is good. necessary but not sufficient
Notice that I am arguing against specific claims made in your comments, and you are arguing at me about vague trends in comments or another user's comments?
sure man
Hexbears won't be happy with anything less than the IRGC marching on DC
They at least gotta march into Occupied Palestine, smh.
I'd settle for Israel being forced to withdraw from Gaza and Lebanon completely and actually cease fire BEFORE the strait is opened. Have seen no indication this is happening
the inbound ship part is basically "will be abandoned in 3 months@dare to try start a war over it,jpg", the usa leaving part is wishful thinking.
I thought that Iran and Oman had agreed to manage passage through the SOH only for Oman to turn around and offer their alternet route. Or was the deal not finalized last time? IDK... Maybe I'm not remembering correctly.
That is correct, Iran announced they came to an agreement with Oman and then Oman buckled under USIS pressure and backed out/reneged/denied it
Yea, even if it works out - it doesn't seem like a smart idea.