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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

An image of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, c. February, where Iranian strikes have caused substantial damage and several US soldier deaths and casualties.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleAfter an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.

For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran's control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is "attempting", because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.

Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn't firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they're using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it's unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying "Alright, let's get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls--" and Iran just... hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It's not a tenable position to hold, and Iran's capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.

So, what is Iran's strategy? It's what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed "debasification". If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US's military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US's strategy, Iran's is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 45 points 10 hours ago

lol. lmao https://archive.ph/4w4Vc

Republic of China Defence Ministry Seeks U.S. Compensation Over Extreme Delays to F-16 Deliveries

The Republic of China Ministry of National Defence has confirmed that it is seeking compensation from the United States and the manufacturer of its new F-16 Block 70 fighters, Lockheed Martin, due to repeated delivery delays. Air Force officials have indicated that compensation may come in the form of technical support, spare parts, or extended warranties rather than direct financial payments. The Ministry signed an agreement to purchase 66 F-16 Block 70 fighters under an $8.2 billion contract in 2019, with the original delivery schedule calling for all aircraft to be delivered by the end of 2026. Only two aircraft have been handed over, with both remaining in the United States.

peltier-laugh

more

According to Lieutenant General Lee Ching-ran, Chief of Staff of the Air Force Command, the first aircraft is now expected to arrive at Republic of China Air Force facilities only in September 2026, representing a substantial postponement from the original timeline. Speaking before legislators this week, Lee confirmed that Taipei has repeatedly raised the issue with U.S. authorities and has requested assistance from the U.S. government in pursuing compensation from the aircraft manufacturer. He noted that compensation is not necessarily limited to monetary reimbursement and could instead consist of additional technical services, spare parts, maintenance support, or extended warranty coverage. Speaking during the legislative hearing, Lee observed: “There are many ways to seek compensation.” He stressed that the current priority remained obtaining practical support that would improve long-term operational readiness, rather than simply receiving cash payments. Such compensation packages are relatively common in major defence procurement contracts when significant delays occur, particularly when the purchasing nation incurs additional costs or operational impacts as a result of postponed deliveries. Extra spare parts, engineering support, software upgrades, maintenance assistance, or longer warranty periods can provide greater long-term value than direct financial compensation by reducing lifecycle operating costs and improving aircraft availability.

Compensation claims over delayed F-16 deliveries are far from unprecedented, with Premier Cho Jung-tai having in October 2025 stated that the government did not rule out “taking legal action against the manufacturer.” He noted, however, that the deal was executed through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales process which does not provide for direct compensation claims. “Only under Direct Commercial Sales could we pursue such claims,” the minister added, noting that plans were nevertheless underway to request repayment for the delayed delivery period. The deliveries are far from isolated, with outstanding backlogs of undelivered U.S. equipment to the Republic of China Armed Forces having in December 2025 reached over $21.45 billion. The Republic of China Air Force’s procurement of F-16s follows a prior order for 140 F-16A/B Block 20 fighters in 1992, and occurs at a time of high tensions in the Taiwan Strait and rapid modernisation of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force. The two Chinese governments have remained in a state of civil war for over 70 years, with the People’s Republic of China having developed multiple types of fifth generation fighters and currently leading the world in sixth generation fighter development. The Republic of China Air Force by contrast has relied on procuring ‘4+ generation’ fighters from the United States, ensuring that the balance of power increasingly favours its primary adversary.

heading for the funniest timeline where the only military industry left for Taiwan to buy from is China's

more

https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/1v5ubco/republic_of_china_defence_ministry_seeks_us/ozow6y1/

Taiwan bought the F16s under the US FMS route. This offers no legal guarantees against delays as any schedule mentioned is just an estimate. Also, Taiwan's FMS contracts are with the DoD , not with Lockheed. Japan had many similar issues with its FMS contracts

One of the most serious cases involved maintenance equipment for the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye early warning aircraft. The audit states that equipment scheduled for delivery within the original contract period had still not arrived years later, directly affecting the Air Self-Defense Force’s ability to maintain its airborne early warning fleet. The E-2D is a core asset used to monitor airspace and coordinate air defense operations

The report explains that under the FMS system, delivery dates listed in contracts are only estimates and are not legally binding on the U.S. government. As a result, Japan had limited leverage to enforce timelines once contracts were signed and payments were made in advance. In many cases, the U.S. side unilaterally modified delivery schedules through administrative procedures without requiring Japanese approval. ... Japan had already paid the full contract amounts for most of the delayed equipment, as FMS [typically] requires advance payment ... Contracts are managed by the U.S. government, which then places orders with American defense companies. Japan is not a direct party to those contracts and cannot directly negotiate with manufacturers. This structure limits transparency over production schedules, cost breakdowns, and delay reasons.

Even Morocco is facing delays on F16s it ordered... Lockheed cites relocation of its F-16 production line to Greenville, S. Carolina from Fort Worth; slower than expected production ramp up thereafter and supply chain disruptions for the delay.


https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/1v5ubco/republic_of_china_defence_ministry_seeks_us/ozluwz3/

The ROC has just suffered humiliation after humiliation from its allies lately. First Trump tariffs it brutally and forces TSMC to invest in America, then Japan and the Philippines partition its territorial waters, and now this? All the western powers are obsessed over the possibility of an invasion, but realistically, they're destroying the ideological basis of the Pan-Greens bit by bit; it's clear even its allies don't respect the ROC as an actual independent nation except where convenient. At this point they should be less concerned about reunification by invasion than reunification by KMT majority.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/1v5ubco/republic_of_china_defence_ministry_seeks_us/oznbdfr/

40 year old training tanks, moldy body armor, floating oil barrels filled with gas outside of hsinchu, and like 100 anduril drones. a terrifying display of might and power.

[-] IranOuttaOil@hexbear.net 5 points 1 hour ago

Only two aircraft have been handed over, with both remaining in the United States.

So... not handed over then.

[-] spudnik@hexbear.net 20 points 6 hours ago

He noted that compensation is not necessarily limited to monetary reimbursement and could instead consist of additional technical services, spare parts, maintenance support, or extended warranty coverage..... Such compensation packages are relatively common in major defence procurement contracts when significant delays occur, particularly when the purchasing nation incurs additional costs or operational impacts as a result of postponed deliveries. Extra spare parts, engineering support, software upgrades, maintenance assistance, or longer warranty periods can provide greater long-term value than direct financial compensation by reducing lifecycle operating costs and improving aircraft availability.

Love the long defense of accepting store credit from Lockheed Martin as a sound financial move i-cant

[-] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 2 points 10 hours ago

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this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2026
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