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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

An image of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, c. February, where Iranian strikes have caused substantial damage and several US soldier deaths and casualties.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleAfter an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.

For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran's control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is "attempting", because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.

Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn't firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they're using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it's unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying "Alright, let's get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls--" and Iran just... hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It's not a tenable position to hold, and Iran's capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.

So, what is Iran's strategy? It's what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed "debasification". If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US's military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US's strategy, Iran's is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] IranOuttaOil@hexbear.net 61 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

https://sonar21.com/israels-critical-fuel-exposure/

::: spoiler ISRAEL’S CRITICAL FUEL EXPOSURE

What’s going on with the Israeli hardliners? Following a security cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Smotrich said:

The current situation, in which the conflict between Iran and the United States remains limited, is the right one and the best for us. We are not looking to get involved.

He elaborated that Israel’s ultimate goal is to weaken and ultimately overthrow the Iranian regime, and that economic pressure (citing Iran’s high inflation and currency collapse) is currently the most effective path. He argued the limited US-Iran confrontation, including pressure related to the Strait of Hormuz, benefits Israel without requiring direct Israeli military involvement.

But is he telling the truth? There may be another reason that Israel, despite some belligerent threats from Netanyahu, wants to avoid getting more involved in the war with Iran. I believe the answer may lie in an assessment I received the other day from a friend who is an energy expert and is an active consultant working with countries in the Middle East. Here are the key conclusions:

CORE JUDGMENT: Israel’s military posture is critically fuel-dependent. Air power is central to homeland defense, strategic reach and any protracted conflict involving Iran, Lebanon, Yemen or multiple fronts. The domestic middle-distillate system is concentrated in two refineries, with the larger Haifa complex still structurally impaired. Loss of both refineries would remove approximately 104 kb/d of diesel and jet/kerosene output. No assured external system can replace the resulting 88 kb/d sustained-war requirement at the necessary scale and speed. If import reception also fails, Israel enters a finite inventory clock that progressively compresses sortie generation, ground logistics, air defense, backup power and the wider military support system.

Executive Summary: Four Critical Deficiencies

NATIONAL REFINING CONCENTRATION. Israel has no geographically diversified domestic refining system. Two facilities carry effectively the entire national burden. The current planning baseline is approximately 82.3 kb/d of diesel and 22.0 kb/d of jet/kerosene; Haifa supplies about two-thirds of combined middle distillates and roughly 70% of diesel. Loss of Haifa alone creates a 52 kb/d sustained-case deficit. Loss of both eliminates domestic supply.

EXISTING STRUCTURAL IMPAIRMENT. Haifa is operating, but it is not a fully resilient asset. Its dependence on interconnected power, steam, electrical, pipeline and transfer systems leaves the complex exposed to common-mode failure. The strategic danger is not merely reduced nameplate capacity; it is that further functional disruption could propagate across multiple processing and support systems at once.

NO ASSURED REPLACEMENT SYSTEM. With both refineries unavailable, approximately 88 kb/d of middle distillates must come from accessible stocks and imports under the sustained-war case. Black Sea supply is sharply constrained, global jet and diesel trade is compressed, Gulf refining availability is impaired, and every imported barrel remains dependent on insurance, shipping, reception, certification and internal distribution. Israel has procurement options, but no assured backup architecture capable of replacing its refining system at scale.

MILITARY POSTURE IS COUPLED TO MIDDLE DISTILLATES. Israel’s air force is central to deterrence, homeland defense, long-range reach and any protracted multi-front conflict. Jet fuel sustains aircraft; diesel sustains the system that makes airpower possible – air defense, ground mobility, logistics, communications, backup generation, maintenance and base continuity. A fuel crisis therefore degrades the entire military posture, not aviation in isolation.

Let me boil this down for you. During the first five weeks of Epic Fury Israel’s refineries in Haifa and Ashdod were hit and suffered significant damage. Those two refineries are essential for Israel’s ability to produce diesel and jet fuel. At present Israel is scraping by, but it does not have substantial reserves. Further damage to those refineries would create a fuel crisis for Israel, especially in terms of its ability to produce jet fuel. Without jet fuel, Israel’s ability to continue bombing Lebanon and Gaza would be severely constrained, if not eliminated. A lack of diesel would also cripple Israel’s ground operations. In short, renewed Iranian attacks on Israel’s refineries could leave Israel unable to continue military operations.

[-] ziggurter@hexbear.net 4 points 55 minutes ago* (last edited 51 minutes ago)

What's the unit "kb/d"? I assume "...per day". But what's the "b"?

EDIT: Oh. "Barrels (of oil)", I guess. I'm a dumbass. Gotta remember most of this is imperial shit, and it's steeped in tradition and not sane measurements like SI units or at least metric.

[-] junebug2@hexbear.net 5 points 46 minutes ago* (last edited 45 minutes ago)

it’s barrel. a barrel of oil is equal to 42 US gallons/ 158.9 liters at standard temperature and pressure. the conventions for abbreviations are weird, in US english they usually use roman numerals and ‘bbl’ for barrel (Mbbl is thousand barrels, cause M is mille/ 1000, and MMbbl is million barrels). in Europe they use ‘b’ for barrel and normal SI prefixes (mb is mega/ million barrels, and kb is kilo/ thousand barrels).

so kb/d is thousand barrels of oil per day

[-] ziggurter@hexbear.net 3 points 43 minutes ago

Thanks. I realized that right after posting my question. Still, appreciate the help. :-)

[-] soyaEnjoyer@hexbear.net 30 points 11 hours ago

Thank you for posting this, comrade, but it's quite bad to read on mobile since the quotes in fenced code blocks do not wrap.

Would you mind using > block quotes for the quotes instead of putting them in ``` fenced code blocks? 🙏🏻

https://www.markdownguide.org/cheat-sheet/

[-] culpritus@hexbear.net 27 points 12 hours ago

Could this explain the extensive tanker fleet deployments to the entity by the US to some degree? Is the US attempting to airlift jet fuel to the region since supply and refining capacity is locally extremely limited? Just a thought, but it seem the longer the supply crunch continues, this will become a more significant constraint on the USIS forces. The last post about the tanker fleet indicated ~100 were currently deployed there.

[-] TheoryofChange@hexbear.net 29 points 12 hours ago

I don't think so based on scales of capacity. A kc-46 tanker carries 31,000 gallons of fuel (according to wikipedia. The smallest classification of commercial tanker ships carries 3.2-8 million gallons. So 100 tanker planes is less than one small tanker ship.

this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2026
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