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submitted 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is reposted from a video AryJeayBackup posted. There are similar videos and images of the funeral procession on that account, plus on other pro-Iran accounts.


With the funeral of the late Khamenei drawing crowds of millions of Iranians, and many dozen visits from foreign delegations and high-up figures from around the world, the war itself has hit a temporary lull. It appears that the battle over whether the Omani route is legitimate is continuing, with transits sometimes relatively elevated (but still nowhere close to pre-war levels) due to American air support, and sometimes stopped by an Iranian strike. What's currently happening in the negotiations is extremely unclear to me because of a massive deluge of conflicting information and intentional disinformation.

However, with Vance confirming on live TV that they are treating the MoU as an opportunity to refill oil stocks (not physically possible to any significant degree given current transits and the SPR's current level) and that they'll see where they'll go from there, the US maintaining that Iran cannot be allowed to have a toll/service fee system, and of course the ethnic cleansing in Lebanon, I currently can't see how this ends without a return to war. The alternative, of course, is that either the US's or Iran's position is much precarious than they're letting on, and they are bluffing but will capitulate under serious fire. I've been keeping my mind as open to the latter possibility as I have the former, and of course, it's not as if Iran's economic situation is all sunshine and rainbows and so that could potentially be the deciding factor, but to me, militarily, Iran has never looked stronger. The missile cities truly stood the test, and its air defense network is still plenty powerful enough to deter American planes and drones from getting too close to its airspace.

Elsewhere, we are nearing the completion of the latest wave of comprador installation in Latin America, with Colombia and Peru returning to a hard right political stance after a brief stint with more left wing politics. Venezuela is also being forced into submission regardless of which party is technically in charge under threat of overwhelming force by the US, after the US successfully bypassed Venezuela's major and only defence, a well-armed and party-loyal population in the hundreds of thousands, by simply saying "If you take arms against us on the ground, we will do you what we did to Gaza." Whether the Venezuelan people will continue to accept this humiliation or rise up is still up to debate, but if there is no response by the government at all, it does seem to spell a pause, though not necessarily the end, of Chavismo as it is currently conceived, and new developments will be needed to take Venezuela forwards. And, finally, Cuba has been forced to take the Dengist route (reform and opening up) for the possibility of survival after nearly a century of a more tightly controlled socialist economy, as the siege this time around proved even more impactful than even the very difficult times after the fall of the USSR. The next logical steps for the US will be to crush Brazilian and Mexican leftist politics, so we may see the ignominious return of the Bolsonaro faction, and perhaps even the man himself.

As I currently see it, with electoral tampering and fraud now both very commonplace and essentially unpunishable by leftist forces, there's three main paths forward for the continent: 1) a return to the anti-imperialist guerrilla warfare that characterized much of the 20th century due to the once-again-confirmed failure of electoral politics; 2) just accepting submission to regional US hegemony as the US withdraws and relocates its forces and agents from Eurasia under fire, and hoping that maybe they can win an election here or there and that Somebody Abroad Does Something (the mythical "international community", etc); or 3) the allure of the growing Chinese hegemony proves too powerful for even the American compradors to resist and they sign developmentalist business deals with them that undercut the IMF and World's Bank plan to maintain imperialist underdevelopment.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 42 points 1 day ago

unbypassable paywall, unfortunately https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2026/july/strike-fighter-aviations-expertise-crisis

Strike-Fighter Aviation’s Expertise Crisis

The Navy’s strike-fighter community has a department-head crisis on its hands. Urgent actions are needed to fix it.

more

Today, the Navy’s strike-fighter (VFA) community faces a significant retention challenge at a time when tactical complexity and operational demands continue to increase. Historically, naval aviation has relied on experienced department heads to carry out squadron commanders’ guidance, lead strike teams, and train and mentor junior aviators. Department heads provide tactical expertise and develop the next generation of aviators and leaders. But with fewer pilots choosing to stay in the Navy beyond their minimum service requirement, the model that has helped build and maintain U.S. power projection capability is at risk. The results of recent aviation department-head (DH) screening boards illustrate the strain on this system. In 2025, the VFA community required 52 department heads yet only 31 aviators accepted orders. Of those who accepted, 15 were transition officers from other aviation communities, including rotary wing and maritime patrol pilots. As a result, only 16 of the required 52 department head billets were filled by career VFA aviators. Because department heads make future commanding officers and key instructors within the strike-fighter community, the loss of even a small number of candidates can have cascading effects on the development and readiness of the force—including the other aviation communities from which transition officers come. The retention challenge is further compounded by a smaller-than-normal pool of qualified candidates. Delays in undergraduate flight training, particularly involving the T-45C Goshawk, resulted in fewer pilots from year groups 2014–2016 reaching the fleet. Thus, the pool of officers eligible for DH positions is correspondingly smaller than historical norms, leaving the community less capable of absorbing normal attrition, which helps explain the screening board results. Unfortunately, the challenge will only deepen as officers in year groups 2019–2021 also experienced training delays because of poor T-45C reliability.

The Threat Gets More Lethal

The loss of experienced aviators coincides with a period of increasing tactical complexity. Just 10 years ago, the primary focus in VFA air-to-air training was surviving an intercept from 10 miles out to the merge against adversary aircraft derived from Soviet Cold War designs, including MiG-29s, Su-27s, and Su-30s. Now, potential adversaries are fielding new aircraft with advanced missiles and sensors designed to challenge U.S. tactical air superiority. Despite historical reliance on Soviet/Russian aerospace technology, in the past decade China has developed advanced indigenous platforms, including the fourth-generation J-16 and fifth-generation J-20A and J-35, and it is reportedly developing sixth-generation aircraft. Chinese missile technology has mirrored these advances. Open-source reporting from the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict suggests long-range air-to-air engagements at distances approaching 100 nautical miles—among the longest ever reported in combat. As engagement ranges and threat capabilities increase, U.S. tactics have grown correspondingly more complex to maintain lethality and survivability. Developing, testing, and refining these tactics has increasingly fallen to a cadre of experienced aviators who translate emerging technologies into tactics and provide the resulting practical instruction for the fleet. Retaining these aviators is therefore not simply a matter of manning fleet squadrons but of building, honing, and preserving their tactical expertise and combat edge.

Strike-Fighter Tactics Instructors

Within the VFA community, this process is formalized through the strike-fighter tactics instructor (SFTI) program, which develops the instructors who teach and disseminate advanced aerial tactics while training, evaluating, and leading the fleet. The origins of this model date back to the Vietnam War. In 1969, faced with formidable North Vietnamese aircraft and air-defense systems and an unacceptable kill-to-loss ratio, the Navy created the Navy Fighter Weapons School (TOPGUN) to regain its tactical edge. Newly minted graduates returned to fleet squadrons and taught their squadron mates what they had learned in training. The combat results were immediately positive and decisive; graduates from the first TOPGUN class achieved an aerial victory against a MiG-21 on 28 March 1970—the first of many in the skies over Vietnam. This “train-the-trainer” model has demonstrated that a small cadre of instructors can have an outsized effect on the combat effectiveness of the fleet. Yet the number of SFTIs produced each year is limited, with only a few dozen VFA pilots graduating from TOPGUN annually. Developing these instructors requires a significant investment of time and resources. Based on the flights and simulator hours required during the TOPGUN course alone, the training cost for an individual student may range between $1 million and $2 million, not including the additional investment required to develop graduates into TOPGUN instructors. After completing advanced tactical training, these aviators refine their instructional skills during shore tours before returning to fleet squadrons as training officers. This natural progression creates distributed “knowledge nodes”—such as Strike-Fighter Weapons School Atlantic at Naval Air Station Oceana and Strike-Fighter Weapons School Pacific at NAS Lemoore. These schools and their instructor cadre sustain tactical development within the VFA community while also providing a steady pipeline of experienced aviation leaders. In total, the Navy’s investment in a single SFTI represents more than a decade of training and operational experience and more than $10 million in cumulative investment. Retaining these instructors is far more cost-effective than replacing them. Just as this small cadre of instructors provides an outsized tactical advantage to the fleet, their departure from the service removes critical knowledge from the VFA community. In recent screening boards, nearly half the department heads who accepted orders were transition aviators, underscoring the degree to which the community has relied on this approach to maintain manning. With only 22 strike-fighter squadrons, nearly every one will have a transition department head. While these officers bring operational experience from other platforms, they must master strike-fighter tactics while assuming demanding leadership roles. As threats and tactics continue to evolve, tactical proficiency requires sustained immersion in the operational environment. Even highly experienced aviators can find themselves behind the learning curve after relatively short periods away from the cockpit.

A Cautionary Tale

In 1941, Japan fielded some of the most highly selected and rigorously trained naval aviators in the world. Many Japanese carrier pilots entered combat with hundreds of flight hours while flying some of the most capable aircraft of the era. By 1944, however, that standard had deteriorated dramatically. Many new Japanese pilots entered combat with only about 40 hours of flight training. This decline was not primarily caused by a shortage of aircraft or industrial capacity, but by Japan’s decision not to preserve and rotate experienced aviators back to training commands to prepare the next generation of pilots. Instead, many of Japan’s most capable pilots remained in operational units until lost in combat. The U.S. Navy adopted a different approach during the war. Naval leaders recognized that producing large numbers of aircraft would be insufficient without skilled aviators to fly them. So, even at the height of the global conflict, veteran combat aviators were regularly rotated back to training commands, where they passed their experience to new pilots entering the fleet. By preserving these experienced instructors, the Navy ensured tactical knowledge gained in combat was incorporated into training and disseminated across the force. Because Japan’s experienced pilots never rotated back to training squadrons, the system that had produced the country’s early-war victories rapidly weakened. The battle-hardened Japanese naval aviators who fought at Midway in June of 1942 were gradually replaced by far less experienced aviators, leading to the “Marianas Turkey Shoot” in the June 1944 Battle of the Philippine Sea. This lesson from World War II is clear: preserving experienced instructors—and the tactical knowledge they carry—is essential to maintaining combat effectiveness. The strike-fighter community must confront a similar challenge today.

cont'd in response

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

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A Financial Dilemma

To encourage retention, senior Navy leaders must understand the decision framework today’s strike-fighter pilots face when deciding whether to stay beyond their minimum service requirements. Historically, military pilot retention has closely followed airline hiring trends, which are tied to broader economic conditions. When airlines are hiring, Navy pilot retention declines; when hiring slows, it improves. But while in the past the Navy may have been able to weather the storm of a strong airline hiring cycle, it may now have to compete more directly and consistently with the industry than before. In the coming decade, major airlines are likely to continue hiring at rates above historical norms because of a combination of mandatory retirements and increased demand for air freight and passenger air travel. In addition, airlines have begun to actively target military aviators earlier in their careers. Programs such as the United Military Pilot Program offer conditional job offers to military pilots well in advance of when they can separate. Delta Airlines has begun extending similar offers up to a year prior to separation. Such practices were uncommon just a few years ago, but they provide increased stability to an otherwise volatile industry. As airline hiring has become more consistent and airline jobs more accessible, the gap in compensation and quality of life between military and civilian aviation has become more pronounced. Because airline seniority directly affects long-term earnings and schedule, and thus quality of life, the timing of a pilot’s transition plays a significant role in lifetime income and geographic stability. Based on current pay scales, even when accounting for Navy retention bonuses and a military pension, the opportunity cost between leaving the Navy for a major airline at approximately 12 years of service and remaining until 20 years may approach $3 million—meaning the earlier a pilot leaves the Navy the greater his or her lifetime earnings. Even relatively large military pilot retention bonuses make up just a fraction of this long-term earnings differential. Because accepting department-head orders often coincides with the decision to remain for a 20-year career, this is the decisive economic point in a pilot’s life. Deciding whether to forgo millions of dollars over the course of a career is a choice more often associated with professional athletes, but with no slowing of operational tempo in sight, Navy pilots face a stark choice: Accept DH orders and stay in the Navy at a time of increasingly long and difficult deployments, or apply for airline jobs that offer greater lifetime earnings, geographic stability, and quality of life. The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) recently completed an 11-month deployment—the longest carrier deployment since the end of the Cold War. If such deployment lengths become the norm, it will add to retention pressures. To develop effective retention policies, the Navy must understand these realities and align incentives to the options faced by mid-career aviators.

How to Fix It

Understanding that the pool of aviators may be shallower than in previous years, the Navy should adopt selective retention policies to retain the aviators it most needs to continue to serve. One way to do this is by offering targeted retention bonuses for aviators who have the greatest effect on tactical development and operational readiness—the strike-fighter tactics instructors. While current bonuses are substantial, they offer the same amount to every pilot in the community rather than prioritizing the most qualified individuals. The current maximum retention bonus for VFA pilots is $50,000 per year for up to seven years. The five-year and three-year bonuses are $50K and $40K per year, respectively.

  • Bigger bonuses. Given the economic realities of the private sector—not just from the airlines—more aggressive incentives, potentially on the order of $100,000 annually, may be required to remain competitive. Retention bonuses should be scalable and tied to qualification, signaling that the service prioritizes advanced tactical expertise. While this may seem extreme, several factors make such bonuses economically sound: The cost of replacing a highly qualified aviator can exceed $10 million and require more than a decade of training and operational experience, while retaining that aviator through the department-head tour would increase the likelihood of continued service to a full 20-year career or longer.
  • Higher quality service. Beyond financial incentives, the Navy must address quality-of-service factors that directly affect aviator development and retention. Unlike general infrastructure shortfalls that affect everyone in the Navy, several deficiencies specifically undermine and frustrate the tactical excellence of the strike-fighter community.

As tactics have become more complex and require higher levels of classification, insufficient IT infrastructure makes it more difficult for aircrew to train effectively and attain advanced qualifications. Reduced aircraft availability has forced some SFTIs at weapons schools to request 100-hour flight waivers, while some department heads arrive at fleet squadrons with fewer than 1,000 hours in the F/A-18—both deviations from historical norms. In 2020, the average TOPGUN applicant had approximately 725 F/A-18 flight hours. In more recent application cycles, that average had declined to 525 hours, indicating aviators are entering advanced tactical training with less operational experience. This reduction is particularly significant when viewed against established training thresholds. The governing instruction allows aviators to maintain dynamic currency with reduced flight requirements for air combat maneuvering events once they reach 750 tactical flight hours—a milestone reflecting a level of experience historically expected of more senior aviators. As average experience declines below this benchmark, aviators who previously would have been relied on for advanced tactical expertise enter these roles with less experience than their predecessors. These challenges occur against the backdrop of extended deployments and high operational tempo, with little indication of relief. Inefficiencies that increase workload across the force reduce morale and limit the time available to generate sorties and maintain readiness. While any single shortfall may seem minor, the cumulative effect over time can be significant—particularly when compared with potential adversaries using that same time to improve. To address these issues, a focused team of officers from lieutenant to captain should be formed to identify and prioritize the most impactful quality-of-service improvements, reporting directly to senior leaders to enable rapid corrective action. Ideas such a board should consider include: DH and executive officer/commanding officer bonuses that even out the airline pay differential; ways to limit the length of non-combat carrier deployments; ways to increase flight hours and aircraft readiness rates; and better active-duty/reserve integration, including options to move seamlessly between the active and reserve force.

Time to Act

Japan’s naval aviators did not lose their edge overnight. The erosion was gradual—one experienced pilot lost in combat, one training billet left unfilled, one year-group of instructors that never came home to teach. But by the time the consequences were noticeable, they were irreversible. The U.S. Navy recognized that trap in World War II and avoided it, not by chance but by deliberate policy. The Navy’s strike-fighter community faces a similar choice today, and the decisions that will determine its future health are being made now, at screening boards and airline recruitment offices, by mid-career pilots doing the math on their futures. Senior leaders have a narrow window to change the calculus. The question is not whether the Navy can afford meaningful retention bonuses and quality-of-service reform. Given what is at stake and what it costs to replace what is being lost, the question is whether it can afford not to.

this post was submitted on 06 Jul 2026
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