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NATO is failing in Ukraine
(thepeacemonger.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2026
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since I can't reply to the comment below I'll address it here:
Economic troubles and deindustrialization in Europe started long before the war on Iran. Germany in particular has been crashing economically ever since being cut off from cheap Russian energy. The recent events simply accelerated the process that was already well under way.
That's going to be a decades long process because you can't just swap out the energy system over night. Not to mention the fact that Europe is still not really serious about this given that it refuses to buy solar and wind tech from China because supposedly it will spy on them or whatever. Literally nothing is being done to transition from fossil fuels right now, and that means there's going to be a massive economic crisis.
You only have to look at the popularity of the current regimes in Europe here and the rist of nationalist parties to see just how ugly things are already. One has to be asleep not to see this. The rise of AfD in Germany is a direct product of war in Ukraine.
Nowhere did I say that every problem in the west is tied to Russia. I simply pointed out that the proxy war is hurting Europe significantly right now, and there are far more problems than there are in Russia in Europe.
What it will actually come down to is the economic situation between G7 and BRICS. Russia very obviously isn't going to run out of people, and even western sources admit that Russian army is actually growing and becoming stronger. What is going to be decisive is the economic collapse in Europe at which point it will no longer be able to supply Ukraine.
Just a short comment on the energy crisis in Europe:
Yeah, that hit us. No doubt.
But we couldn't go on like that anyway. We need to decentralise energy and if possible focus on renewables instead of oil/gas - doesn't matter where it's from
For example, I do like the idea to take green hydrogen, that's hard to store and transport, and take CO2 from the atmosphere to produce methan.
We could be gathering at least some independence that way and it would be better for all of us, because we won't produce that much CO2
Sure, switching away from fossil fuels is absolutely something Europe should have been doing a long time ago. The most practical and obvious way to do that would be to buy stuff like wind turbines and solar panels from China to close the immediate gap, and then work on developing domestic industry to close the gap. That's not actually happening though. Even though people are starting to realize there's a huge energy crisis, no significant moves are being made by Europe to phase in renewables at scale. So, the only possible outcome in the near future is an economic crash.
I didn't say it's happening - as you said, it sadly isn't on the scale needed.
I just said, we need to do that.
oh I completely agree, and the effort should've started a decade ago
I think there are some issues with federation and editing comments because I think I edited the comment twice or so. Doesnt matter.
Germany is not Europe and also not Nato alone though and as I said european economies are still growing, just slower. And for the reneweables; europe started 10 years ago and is transitioning RIGHT now. They are definitly buying whatever they can get their hands on. The EU has every right to protect its solar/wind sector (so does china and so does the US), if that means chinese panels arent going to be as cheap so be it, but they are definitly being installed so idk why you have to be so dishonest about this.
I mean yeah of course altrighters where going to rise during the ukraine war. Its literally their job (from russias, chinas and newly techbros in the US perspective) to destabilize european countries and to stop them from funding ukraine. Its more like altrighters sharply rose to 20-30% and then plateaud. If we want to stay with germanys example I can tell you that the afd might look like its rising but it has been losing local elections left and right because people have been realizing that maybe it isnt such a good idea to have a room temp IQ nazi as your mayor. My apologies if you felt that I was putting words in you mouth there but I dont think I did. Yes Europe has many problems. No most of them existed before the war and arent caused by it. As of now BRICS is a fucking joke and chinas support to russia is coming with a hefty price. Dont know why you have to bring G7 into this when again its about all countries in the EU/Nato. Obviously russia has more people than ukraine, but how many of those can they mobilize and how sustainable is it to have 1000 more of them everyday unable to fight? Obviously the russian army is growning(would be stupid if it wasnt) and they are certainly less ill equiped than at the start of the war, but is it enough? So far it doesnt seem like it. In how many centuries will russia reach kiew if it continues at its current pace? Maybe europes economies will crash and maybe civilisation itself will collapse but there is no scenario where russia doesnt go belly up first.
Germany is at the heart of the European economy. But it's not just Germany that's doing poorly. France, and the UK are also in dire straits. And if any of them crashes, that's going to be a huge crisis for all of Europe. That's just a matter of time at this point.
Meanwhile, if you look at the percentages, it's quite clear that renewables cannot replace fossil fuels in the near future. The EU has no solar/wind sector to protect, but you are right that it has every right to destroy its own economy snobbing the only country that could shift the needle for Europe. The only one being dishonest here is you pretending like Europe has some plan to move off fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.
Also, absolutely hilarious that you think all the nationalists are in Europe because of Russia and China as opposed to the fact that Europe has always been a fascist shithole. And now that its crashing economically, it's going back to doing what it does best. There's also zero evidence to the right having plateaued. Every single poll shows it growing by the day.
Most of the immediate problems are very much directly caused by the fallout from the war. Europe relied on cheap Russian energy to function, and now that it's been cut off there is enormous economic blow back. On top of that, Europe has diverted an incredible amount of resources towards the war which led to austerity driving the rise of nationalism.
And if you think BRICS is a joke, what else is there to say really. BRICS is literally a bigger economic bloc than the G7 already, and these are the economies that are showing rapid growth. And I'm bringing G7 into this because that's the totality of the western bloc led by the US which is in a direct competition with BRICS right now.
Russia isn't doing any mobilzing right now, that's what's happening in Ukraine, and if you think these kinds of losses are going to have a big demographic impact on Russia then you must've failed basic arithmetic in school. https://ukrainewarlosses.org/
Also, not sure why it would not seem like what Russia is doing is enough given that it is advancing all across the front right now and is about to take all of Donbas. You might want to read up a bit of history, like what happened in the second world war to understand how wars of attrition work.
And it's actually the opposite. There is no scenario where Russia goes belly up period. Russia failing and becoming destabilized would be a disaster for China because NATO would be able to start building up forces on China’s western flank, and to cut them off from access to food, energy, and resources. So, if Russia ever finds itself in trouble economically, China will necessarily step in. It's really that simple.
Are you unable to have an argument without namecalling or have i simply struck too many nerves? Im starting to feel like you dont want to argue but want to be right.. first you tell me EU isnt buying panels from china now you tell me it has no solar/wind sector(when it clearly does btw). Then where are the panels coming from? The US?(good one) I know first hand but it seems like you dont. You tell me that european economies are going to collapse when the hard numbers show that they are just growing slower. The cut from russian gas simply didnt have the big consequences you wanted it to have.
Why should i even have to adress an argument that boils dont to "no youre all facists". Our little nazis receive payments from and are regulars with the chinese and russian gouvernment. Thats just a hard fact. Big US tech regularly pushes their content in users faces ("oh no thats just the algorithm, we didnt do nothing.."). And again theyve stopped growing at arround 30%(still horrible) (which is also easy to look up btw) and you just go "nu uh".
But its not about BRICS its not about G7. Its about Nato/Europe against russia. And yes BRICS is a joke compared to the EU. What does it matter if the economies of member states shortly benefited from russia having to sell fertilizer and oil at a near loss? Everyone in BRICS is in there for themselves and not because they like each other so much. The EU has already seen a few crises, BRICS's will be russias collapse. Only time will tell if it can grow to an actual alliance or if its just a bunch of loose contracts that may or may not be fullfilled. G7 doesnt matter again thanks to the senile orange.
You call it what you want we both know what i meant when i said conscription. Miss me with the whataboutism and Ukraine. We where talking about how many men russia can put on the ground. Nothing else. Also again stop it with the name calling. Im trying to have an argument in good faith but I feel more and more like you dont.
What am I supposed to answer when I point out that russian advances have halted to a crawl and that their losses are unsustainable and again you just say "nuh uh"? Like what am I supposed to say to that.
I agree that china is going to save russia. Thats what I already said and chinas help is going to come at a hefty price. Im sure the russian people will be happy to be under new management. Might actually improve things for them.
If you're upset about me calling you out on making absurd statements then you can simply not make absurd statements. I also don't care what you feel.
What I said is that Europe is not buying or producing panels in volumes anywhere close to what would be needed to replace fossil fuels. And if Europe spent all the money it poured into Ukraine into doing actual energy transition then it would've been a lot further along there.
Being cut off from Russian gas has had massive consequences. And you only need to look at what happened to German industry since the start of the war to understand how huge these consequences are. You're simply refusing to engage with reality here because it doesn't fit with your propagandized perception of the world.
Weird that you don't feel the need to address the fact that fascists are becoming the most popular parties all across Europe. Also weird to continue repeating the false claim that these parties have peaked in popularity when every poll shows the opposite of being the case.
And yes, it very much is about BRICS and G7, with Europe and Russia simply being the hot conflict in the overarching global conflict between the west and the rest of humanity. The fact that you continue dismissing BRICS as a joke shows that you have absolutely no clue regarding the subject you're attempting to debate. BRICS is where majority of resources and manufacturing exists. If you think that's a joke then you're dumber than a doorbell.
And no, we don't both know what you meant when you said conscription. You just like to throw out words and then pretend like you didn't mean what you said when called out on your bullshit. Meanwhile, love how you screech about whataboutism when I point out that what you said is actually happening in Ukraine which is the other side of the conflict.
Again stop saying dumb shit if you don't want to be called out on it. You're very obviously not trying to have an argument in good faith because you keep making demonstrably false statements. I don't care how politely you lie, it's the fact that you lie that's the problem not the decorum.
An example of a blatant lie is the claim that Russian offensive has halted when Russia just took Kostyantynivka which is a city of 80k people, and opens up the gate to Slovyanks and Kramatorsk which are the last remaining fortresses Ukraine has in Donbas. And I already linked a site tracking losses which you ignored. If you think 150k losses is unsustainable for Russia then what else is there to say here.
And I'm sure Russian people will be much happier working with China than being dominated by the west. That should be obvious to anybody who knows any history.
Again with the namecalling, insults and weirdly telling accusations. I hope you find a different outlet for you anger than randos on the internet.
I'm not angry at all, I'm just pointing out that what you claim is demonstrably false and misinformed, and I do not respect your opinion in the slightest because of that. I don't owe you any politeness here. Nobody asked you to argue with me either, so not sure what you're complaining about. Run along and discuss your fantasies with somebody who's as gullible as you.