i think a more direct war between russia and nato in the near future is possible
Unfortunately, that's becoming increasingly likely by the day. As NATO strikes deep into Russia escalate, there is a lot of internal political pressure to hit back at NATO directly.
That’s the thing with the SMO idea, it promises to Russian civilians that costs will be low and everyday life will not be interrupted. Which is fine if you expected a quick campaign, but given that Russia has been drawn into a proxy conflict that’s creating a lot of cash/trial grounds for western MIC by for instance launching drone attacks on civilian targets, it’s a terrible idea that becomes less and less viable.
As the idea of creating a rump state (so that the pre 2014 order can be essentially recreated) out of all those republics RU-UA are fighting over becomes more and more delayed, the possibility of more MoD shit going off grows.
If there is a direct conflict with Europe, Russia is not going to fight it the way they are in Ukraine though. And I expect it would almost certainly go nuclear.