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this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2026
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I suppose that's one way to cook the unemployment rate to look good.
I don't understand the macroeconomics rabbit-hole well enough to know the details, but it seems to me that there is a complex set of mathematical formulae and models economists use to make their analysis, predictions, and recommendations from. Then, from those, there are patterns that emerge from the data that more general "rule of thumb" guidelines are derived from, which enable people without an economic background to watch for those patterns and make their own analysis, predictions, and direct actions without having to fully understand the underlying reasoning; sort of like standing on the shoulders of the experts.
Then, lately, reporting rules have been changed and/or fudged, which has led to a scenario where those familiar patterns no longer necessarily work the same or foretell the same things, causing potentially big miscalculations by the non-economists making pattern-based analysis.
What I still wonder about, though, is whether the actual economists have enough data, knowledge, and modeling to continue to make accurate analysis in this new environment themselves. A follow-up question to that would be, "How long might it take for people that have lost the ability to navigate the new economic landscape to regain that ability, assuming that can that even be done?"