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submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of rescue efforts at a damaged residential complex in Caracas on June 25th.


Weekly preamble in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe situation regarding both Iran and global oil markets is getting even more complicated, and that's without even including the regular injections of disinformation from people like Barak Ravid and Trump himself. In my current estimation, the negotiations are proceeding as if both sides would rather see a deal than not. At the very least, there have certainly been enough blatant violations of the MoU articles that Iran would be fully justified to end negotiations altogether, and yet they are not, which must mean that they really do want a deal. Until a few days ago, these were mainly issues that Iran has been prepared to show... "flexibility" on (others might say "cowardice"), such as Zionist aggression against southern Lebanon. Both at the start of the April ceasefire and at the start of the MoU, they made Lebanon out to be a red line issue, but ultimately seemed convinced by the US saying to them, via backchannels, that they'll yank the leash back on their mangy, rabid dog. Therefore, it's safe to conclude that Iran, in practice, either only symbolically cares about Lebanon as the number of buildings destroyed by the Zionists is now climbing into the tens of thousands, or is confident in Hezbollah's ability to withstand assaults and eventually push back the Zionists to the border.

However, very recently, the fighting has once again come closer to home for Iran, with renewed, albeit limited, exchanges of fire in the general area of Hormuz. This all stems from an unfortunate contradiction that Iran has wandered into with regard to Oman. In short: their legal argument for why they should be able to extract tolls/service fees from shipping through Hormuz relies on the concept of Hormuz being part of their territorial waters and not international waters, which is literally true. However, it is also possible to transit Hormuz entirely through Oman's territorial waters too, and, critically, Oman has not shown any serious interest in charging a toll, and is letting shipping pass freely. Oman is also much less able to seriously withstand foreign assaults than Iran, meaning their position is precarious - side with Iran, and risk a Western military assault that destroys them; side with the US, and risk Hormuz never truly reopening because the IRGC will not tolerate ships bypassing their authority. So, Iran is now legally stuck: to have a toll, it must find a way to argue that territorial waters are important when it applies to them, but aren't important when it applies to Oman. Or, of course, to somehow convince Oman to set up their own toll, in face of the dangers.

So far, the result of this has been Iran asserting, both verbally and through drones and missiles, that transit through the Oman channels is, at least during the period of the MoU, illegitimate. This has squashed hopes by many analysts that Hormuz flows would return to normal very soon - after a very brief peak, these numbers now seem to be descending to near-wartime levels. This is happening as the US's reserves continue to drain at a frightening rate. That being said, Iranian oil tankers are getting out in large numbers and reaching foreign markets, so it's not as if Iran is solely being disadvantaged by the current situation. It's even possible that Iran is waiting for enough of these ships to reach Eastern Asia before they plan to restart the war. I'm unsure if this is actually likely, but I've seen several others suggest it, and it does make sense to at least make the most of the current lack of blockade while you figure out if the US is actually going to give in to any of your demands.

Over in Ukraine, the situation seems to be slowly heating up. It's always hard for me personally to figure out the seriousness of the statements of the Ukrainians and the Russians - you'll look back on a year of exaggerated threats and bold statements and promises of grand offensives and threats of nuclear war and yet, on the battlefield, all you see is fairly standard attrition and positional warfare. Anyway: there's been much ado about Ukrainian attacks into Russia proper over the last few months and whether it's having an impact on their economy (not particularly), wartime production (not at all), and social fabric (kinda). However, the rumors of Belarus getting more directly involved in the war - whether they want to or not - are increasing in intensity, with Ukraine threatening that they'll fire on Belarusian border military equipment if it isn't withdrawn. Also, the Russian hardliners seem to really want to start attacking European military production supplying Ukraine, though Putin appears to have squashed those desires. But at the end of the day, the attrition and territorial advancements continue to convincingly favor Russia.

And lastly, the numbers of the aftermath of the recent earthquakes in Venezuela are rolling in, with ~1500 dead, ~750 buildings damaged and collapsed, and many thousands of people affected and being assisted by the government. From the footage I've seen, it's quite disturbing, and obviously not coming at a great time for Venezuela geopolitically either.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 52 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

https://archive.ph/bJVRh

MiG-29 Transfer To Ukraine Halted By Poland Over Claimed Drone Snub

The decision to stop the donation of 14 additional MiG-29s comes amid worsening relations between Poland and Ukraine.

more

Poland won’t transfer additional MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters to Ukraine because Kyiv won’t provide drone production technology information, the country’s defense minister and deputy prime minister said. The move represents a pivot from policies of the previous Polish government and comes amid worsening relations between Kyiv and Warsaw. As we have previously reported, under former President Andrzej Duda, Poland donated 14 of its MiG-29s to Ukraine, becoming the first country to commit to supplying combat jets to Kyiv. However, under new Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who was elected last August, the country is now seeking something tangible in return for the Fulcrums. “I proposed what I believe was a very partnership-based approach. MiGs in exchange for drones,” Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who serves as defense minister and deputy prime minister, told the Polish Polsat News outlet. “The Ukrainians initially agreed, but they did not honor this arrangement, so there will be no MiGs for Ukraine because Poland does not have drones or the capability to use them.” TWZ cannot independently confirm the Polish defense minister’s claims.

The Polish defense minister lauded Ukraine’s defense technology. “Ukraine has such significant capabilities in the field of drones that, in return for the military equipment it has received, it could have shared its know-how with Poland and provided partial access to its technologies,” he said. Kosiniak-Kamysz added that he was not criticizing the previous administration’s policies toward Ukraine. “I’m not going to bash them over this issue; that’s far from my intention,” he told Polsat. “They did the right thing—in fact, I’d go further: I would have done the same. They acted correctly, and Ukraine was in a much more difficult situation back then.” The Polish move echoes U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on Ukraine and the NATO alliance writ large. The American leader has frequently criticized the Biden administration for giving Ukraine military aid with no compensation and NATO for not doing enough to pay for its own defense.

Kosiniak-Kamysz’s pronouncement about halting the Fulcrum transfer follows Nawrocki’s confirmation last December that Poland would transfer the additional MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine in exchange for counter-drone systems. “After the unnecessary and unclear public uproar surrounding this issue—unfortunately, public opinion has been somewhat misinformed about this matter—we are seeking a symmetrical strategic partnership,” Nawrocki said during a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “This exchange of MiGs for anti-drone systems does not contradict our policy.” It is unclear exactly what drone technology Poland was seeking or what Ukraine refused to provide. Ukraine has yet to comment on the matter. However, Kosiniak-Kamysz’s comments come as Polish-Ukrainian relations are spiraling downward. Earlier this month, Nawrocki stripped Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle, Warsaw’s top award, escalating a row between the allies over the memory of WWII. “Zelensky had infuriated Warsaw this month by naming a military unit after an insurgent army that took part in massacres against Poles in WWII,” AFP reported.

For much of this conflict, Poland has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, serving as a logistics hub and providing military assistance. As we noted earlier in this story, Poland’s initial donation of MiG-29s opened the door for the transfer of dozens of others from several NATO nations. That was followed by the eventual provision of F-16 Vipers and later French Mirage 2000 fighters. Despite receiving more modern fighters: “Zelensky has noted that Ukraine requires MiG-29 aircraft because its pilots are already trained to operate them,” according to the Ukrainian United24 media outlet. “He added that transitioning to F-16 fighters requires lengthy retraining, temporarily reducing combat readiness, whereas MiG-29s would allow Ukraine to maintain operational air capabilities more immediately.” Regardless of the type, Ukraine has a great need for more combat jets. Its air force has lost at least 88 of various kinds since the start of the war, according to the Oryx open-source tracking group. Those figures are likely higher because Oryx only tabulates losses for which it has visual proof. The list includes at least 38 MiG-29s, 20 Su-27 Flankers, four F-16s and a Mirage. Ukraine lost two more aircraft in recent days. A MiG-29 Fulcrum went down during a nighttime combat mission in the central Poltava region on June 27, the Ukrainian Air Force reported, according to the Kyiv Post. Earlier this month, a Su-24M bomber crashed, resulting in the deaths of both crew members, the newspaper noted.

Meanwhile, as the Ukraine-Poland spat simmers, Kyiv has inked a number of deals to share defense technology with Arab states in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Tehran has struck several Arab nations with missiles and drones in response to Operation Epic Fury, and they in turn reached out to Ukraine, which has gained air defense expertise after battling waves of Russian attacks for more than four years. Earlier this week, Ukraine and Kuwait signed a bilateral defense cooperation agreement paving the way for joint defense projects, military-technical cooperation, and collaboration between the two countries’ defense industries. As we noted in a prior story, during a tour of the Middle East earlier this year, Zelensky said he inked defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar, and had discussions with Jordan. It is unclear how much these deals affected Poland’s MiG-29 decision, if at all. Nor is it known if there will be a cascading fallout on other drone deals Zelensky is trying to engineer with the U.S. and other nations. Regardless, while an additional 14 Fulcrums won’t change the course of the war for Ukraine, Poland’s refusal to provide them is another sign that a once-close relationship is now troubled.

@Satanic_Mills@hexbear.net, calling you about weapons shipments being stopped (although admittedly, this is just one shipment, and it may well just be a temporary thing, to badger the Ukrainians into making a trade - although I'm not sure what supposedly amazing drone tech the Ukrainians exactly have to hand over... still, it's something at least)

[-] Satanic_Mills@hexbear.net 7 points 13 hours ago

I'll be damned, they did something.

Can't imagine they will stop any transshipments yet, however.

this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2026
113 points (100.0% liked)

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