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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is (presumably; there's no caption) of Zionist strikes on southern Lebanon, where they are attempting to replicate their strategy from Gaza.


This week's summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:

preambleDiplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in... perhaps not earnest, but it's certainly started. Iran's very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump's (and therefore Iran's) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to "mellow out" and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don't believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he's really quite stupid, with "Israel" being in its worst position in decades under his rule.

Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn't stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn't bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump's threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there's essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.

Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it's now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there's going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it's going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn't going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.

However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): "In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed." Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they'll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn't an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran's strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn't have complete dictatorial power unlike how he's conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 56 points 18 hours ago

https://xcancel.com/Thorkill65/status/2069692541335716054 (machine-translated) (CW: abuse, suicide)

Can you imagine what they call the guys? "One-and-dones." Meaning, one trip out and that's it." The most interesting excerpts from the investigative report by the Ukrainian portal Babel about the 425th Assault Regiment "Skala." Yesterday, a long and well-documented investigative report appeared on the Ukrainian portal "Babel," describing the course of the training process in the 425th Assault Regiment "Skala." The regiment is in reality a division because it currently numbers about 8-10k soldiers, and until recently it was presented in Ukrainian media as supposedly elite. It belongs to the so-called Syrsky Army - a group of assault units subordinate exclusively to him, which he deploys with direct, hand-written orders by battalions and companies to various front sections, in order to plug holes with counterattacks. The article is very powerful and I recommend reading it, though as I note, it's not an easy read. Below are a few excerpts, so everyone can get a rough idea of what's happening in the training centers of the 425th Assault Regiment, where recruits end up.

more

"Upon arrival at the 'Skala' distribution center, they stripped us naked, searched us, made us take off our underwear and do squats. The invaluable first experience of using the toilet - in groups, under the muzzles of automatics, elaborate insults and brutal prods for not standing in sufficiently straight formation or for external appearance. "According to his words, there are two guards per tent: if one escorts to the latrine, the second stays behind. Going out alone, for example just to breathe some fresh air, is also forbidden." "The perimeter around the training centers is mined. Signs reading 'mines' are hung on the fencing tape around the tents(...). A man who spent several weeks in the tent camp says that explosions could be heard almost every night, often animals stumbling onto mines: hares or roe deer."

"In short, they found us. Knocked out teeth, broke ribs, well, just a slaughter. And that guard I escaped from says: 'What do you want, you bastard, for me to go to zero instead of you?' "Almost all the men who escaped from there talk about being bound with duct tape in the training centers." "Oleksandr Zhykyn has similar memories: 'Some chief of staff or someone like that came up to our tent: "And who's here? Ah, third company. One-and-dones." And he walked off. Can you imagine what they call the guys? "One-and-dones." Yeah, in the sense that one trip out and that's it.' 'Over Maksym Skipa, according to his words, the abuse continued even on the training ground: "He could barely walk. We helped him put on and take off his vest, because if he didn't put it on - they'd beat him." One morning the recruits woke up and saw that Maksym had hanged himself.'

"Beatings in 'Skala' don't always require a serious reason, says a former instructor with combat experience. He knows of cases where people in rear positions were abused - because of disruptions in Starlink operation or errors in paperwork. Ribs were broken, he says, right in front of everyone at roll call. The soldier also saw how dogs were set on mobilized men." The author of the report established that in the last six months, there were at least 26 fatal cases of recruits in the "Skala" training centers. The official cause of death in most cases was pneumonia, as well as various strange reasons meant to explain visible beating marks like "fall from a pine tree."

Unfortunately, the article focuses exclusively on describing the first stage of training. There's nothing, however, about what happens to recruits once they reach the regiment's actual subunits fighting on the contact line. I can briefly write that there are also interesting "tidbits" there, like handing out individual weapons to soldiers only right before the assault itself. I also remind you that I was one of the first who, on Twitter, already in September 2025, started writing about how something was off with the 425th Assault Regiment "Skala" and it looked like the so-called "meat unit." At that time, I published a long text here based on info from posts by families of missing Skala soldiers, found on social networks. In April 2026, after another such text, I was attacked by representatives of Osint Polo (I won't name nicknames, but it's easy to guess or search who it concerns), supported by other "experts" from Osint Polo and Karolina Kuzema. They wrote then that I was "leading a witch hunt" and "don't know what I'm talking about because I've never been on the front" and the regiment is just a regular unit. These people once again proved that they are ordinary Ukrainian propagandists for five hryvnia or, in the optimistic version, ignorant fake experts with no clue about the behind-the-scenes of the war in Ukraine.

the actual article: https://archive.ph/hJfmv

https://xcancel.com/Eldacar800/status/2069701677481906622

To supplement, I'll add screenshots from the Facebook group where families are looking for missing people. The group currently has 18,624 members. Even assuming that one person might be searched for by two family members or that some are just observers (like me), it's still over 9K MIA.

[-] DogThatWentGorp@hexbear.net 14 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

wut holy shit bleak

[-] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 24 points 16 hours ago

Israel of Eastern Europe everyone

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 30 points 16 hours ago

Yeah normally a really good sign when your defence minister forms a personal army that you can't audit or control whatsoever, mr zelenskyy

[-] agentblaxploitation@hexbear.net 30 points 17 hours ago

Mining the perimeter of a training prison is just... Extremely bleak ☹️

this post was submitted on 22 Jun 2026
113 points (100.0% liked)

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