Years ago, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev described Baku’s relationship with Israel as an iceberg, with 90% hidden below the surface. Last week, CNN attempted to pull the hidden portion into full view. Notably, the report relied on four anonymous sources with apparent knowledge of highly sensitive Israeli military and intelligence activities in the greater Middle East. While CNN did not identify them, the nature of the information disclosed strongly suggests that the sources were either American, Israeli, or closely connected to the security establishments of one or both countries. According to these sources Israel secretly deployed elite military and intelligence units — including special operations forces, Mossad personnel, and heliborne rescue teams — to multiple locations in southern Azerbaijan during the recent war with Iran.

From positions just 60 miles from Tabriz, a major Iranian city in the north, Israeli commandos allegedly conducted drone operations, installed listening devices, and even helped prepare the ground for the assassination of an IRGC intelligence chief. CNN put this all in the context of other covert sites used by Israel in Iraq, the UAE, and Somaliland during the war, pointing to a ring of forward positions around Iran. Predictably, Baku reacted to the CNN report with fury. The Azerbaijani foreign ministry called the report “entirely baseless” and a violation of journalistic ethics, insisting that “Azerbaijan has never allowed, and will never allow, its territory to be used for such purposes.” Baku demanded that CNN retract what it called “unfounded allegations.” Whether or not CNN’s reporting proves fully accurate, the allegations fit a strategic relationship that has long been the subject of regional scrutiny. Israel provides Azerbaijan with advanced weapons (according to the Stockholm-based SIPRI, up to 70% of its arms imports) and buys its oil (around 40% of Israel’s consumption). Israel gets a foothold on Iran’s borders, and Azerbaijan gets the support of the powerful pro-Israel lobby in Washington. The late Quincy Institute fellow Mark Perry reported in a detailed essay in Foreign Policy as early as 2012 that Azerbaijan was “Israel’s secret staging ground” against Iran.

But why are the details being leaked now? While no official claims have been made, one possibility could be that the U.S. and Israel want to ensure Azerbaijan won’t rescind its cooperation. If so, by publicizing the alleged bases, Washington and Tel Aviv are burning Baku’s plausible deniability with Tehran. This dovetails with a pattern. After the active phase of the war, reports emerged of a secret visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE. Emirati officials vehemently denied them, while their Israeli counterparts openly boasted about the trip. The leak may have been at least partially linked to Israeli domestic political considerations — Netanyahu needs to burnish his credentials as a statesman to see off a tough challenge from his main rival Naftali Bennett in elections later this year. But its effect was to further tie Abu Dhabi to Israel’s regional posture toward Iran. The same logic may apply here: tie Azerbaijan’s hands. If Iran lashes out at either UAE or Azerbaijan, or both, the logic presumably goes, they’d have to turn to Israel for protection, thus solidifying their security dependence on Tel Aviv.

So far, Tehran has shown restraint. The Iranian drone attack on Nakhchivan in March — which Aliyev called “an act of terror” — has been interpreted by Iranian sources as a warning shot, not an opening salvo for greater hostilities. Iran has avoided a northern front throughout the war, concentrating instead on the Persian Gulf and its missile exchanges with Israel. If that was indeed Tehran’s message, then it succeeded: despite his vows of retaliation, Aliyev has to date done nothing — and in fact, shipped humanitarian cargoes to Iran soon thereafter. Neither Baku nor Tehran wanted an open confrontation at that stage, but the more recent revelations can provide fuel for Tehran to act against Baku next time — if the war resumes. That is the real danger. If hostilities restart, Iran could treat Azerbaijan as a legitimate military target. Baku would then be forced to choose between full alignment with Israel — and devastating retaliation — or a break with its most important defense partner, alongside Turkey. However, there is a crucial caveat. Baku's direct, operational involvement in specific hostile actions against Iran — such as enabling Israeli air sorties from Azerbaijan as opposed to logistical roles, such as hosting Israeli commando units that helped kill an IRGC general on Iranian soil — is a distinction that matters enormously. This could be considered a potential casus belli.

Tehran’s muted reaction so far suggests that it will first review the CNN claims carefully and reach its own conclusions. Iranian actions so far have indicated caution. Tehran is calculating: is this disclosure useful? Does it provide leverage? Or does it force Tehran’s hand before it is ready? There is also the Turkish factor. Despite recent friction, Ankara remains Baku’s steadfast ally. Iran sees Turkey as a military peer, and would not precipitate any action that would put it on a collision course with Ankara. And, as Amwaj Media’s Mohammad Ali Shabani points out, Ankara played a helpful role in restraining Kurdish groups from mounting a campaign against Iran in the opening days of the U.S.-Israeli war that was launched February 29 — a service Tehran won’t forget. All of this plays into the next steps for Tehran.

Tangentially, the CNN story is also a blow to the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — the so-called "Caucasus Corridor" announced by the U.S. president as part of a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia. TRIPP has been touted as a strategic wedge against Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus. It is designed to link Azerbaijan overland through Armenia to its Nakhchevan exclave and Turkey, bypassing Iran. But TRIPP requires stability. The investors need to be assured that the region is a safe, neutral transit hub, not a forward operating base for Israeli commandos. A fresh crisis on its Azeri leg could scare off potential investors, already shaken by the Iran war. Despite TRIPP’s status as one of Trump’s signature peace projects that, in his view, should earn him the Nobel Peace Prize, Israel is unlikely to let Azerbaijan off very easily — Baku has become their strategic depth now. That may be the whole point of the CNN leak — whether intended or not: to make any future Azerbaijani reconciliation with Iran politically impossible. The iceberg has been mapped. Now Baku, Tehran and everyone else has to sail around it. Or try to blow it up.