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this post was submitted on 24 May 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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hey awful, a Question:
do any of y'all know if there's a decent writeup of the rationalist/hanson/thiel pre-history of prediction markets (a la polymarket etc) before they hit the much-heightened popularity of the last ~18mo?
and since it's likely that there is no writeup, I am now already starting with "polymarket site:lesswrong.com"
we all know the abyss would get upset if I don't visit enough
Cyberlibertarianism covers it.
Did you try RationalWiki or the page for Hanson himself? Read it next to Taleb's The Black Swan patiently explaining to clever but inexperienced young men that you cannot perfectly predict the future just diversify and prepare for different scenarios.
A lot of rats give Robin Hanson credit for things which are much older (prediction markets for elections are recorded back to the 16th century, The Great Filter was huge in Cold War pop culture). Werner Antweiler at UBC ran a prediction market from 1993 to 2008.
Digging into the literature around the related assassination markets might also help.
Yeah that's the angle Cyberlibertarianism covers it from.
Thanks, despite talking about that book, I still have not found the energy to read it.