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submitted 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) by Saymaz@lemmygrad.ml to c/chapotraphouse@hexbear.net
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[-] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 18 points 5 days ago

For example, this chart shows that the deaths in Gaza markedly increased in the first year of Trump's term

First of all, that chart is statistically incorrect; simply put, it's undercounting deaths by a factor of 10. Second, even by its own incorrect assumptions, it shows absolute deaths decreasing under Trump, the half-ceasefire literally is something Trump can hold over the dems, which explodes every harm reduction argument you're making

[-] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 16 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

In addition, there was a short term "bump" in the confirmed deaths at the beginning of the ceasefire because the GHM could actually resume their activities for a short while and exhume bodies from clearing the rubble. The count is 10 times lower than it should be because Israel killed and entombed all the counters and destroyed all the hospitals where counting was done.

[-] AHemlocksLie@lemmy.zip 1 points 4 days ago

I'm happy to look at new information if you have good sources. I tried to do a relatively quick google for relevant data, but if I've accidentally chosen poorly, I'm open to being convinced.

[-] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 4 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

Here is a source on the breakdown of casualty reporting:

Collecting data is becoming increasingly difficult for the Gaza Health Ministry due to the destruction of much of the infrastructure. The Ministry has had to augment its usual reporting, based on people dying in its hospitals or brought in dead, with information from reliable media sources and first responders. This change has inevitably degraded the detailed data recorded previously. Consequently, the Gaza Health Ministry now reports separately the number of unidentified bodies among the total death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35 091 deaths were unidentified

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00522-4/fulltext

This was in May 2024 that collecting data was already becoming difficult due to destruction of infrastructure. 2 years of siege, bombing, genocide and destruction later. At the time of this publication, 35% of buildings were destroyed in Gaza. Since then there has been occupation, demolition, constant bombing, sieges and strangulation. These are direct deaths from Israeli attacks, already at 35,000 confirmed under these conditions 2 years ago. You won't get an "official count" higher than 70k because it hasn't moved in over a year. Nobody is counting anymore. Do you know what that means? The type of complete breakdown and death that this requires to happen? The purposeful targeting of healthcare and rescue workers and medics. Think of all the downstream deaths, from starvation, from disease, from pre-existing disabilities. Serious estimates put it closer to 250-300k at least. There are

https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/58/1262/561619/War-on-Gaza/War-on-Gaza/Gaza-population-fell-by-,-since-Israel-genocidal-w.aspx

The direct war deaths have dropped considerably since the October 2025 "ceasefire", with "only" about 500-1000 direct Palestinian deaths, however the genocide continues through deprivation and starvation and siege. Doesn't that make Trump the "slow genocide" "harm reduction" candidate compared to the 200k+ killed under Biden's watchful tutelage of dropping 200k tons of explosives on one of the densest populated area on Earth, with full military protection and support and supply? Leveling some 80%+ of all the buildings and slaughtering man, woman and child with your tax payer money.

[-] AHemlocksLie@lemmy.zip 1 points 3 days ago

First off, I'd like to thank you for being one of the very, very few to avoid being a raging asshole about it, and I'd also like to thank you for being one of the very few to bring new information to the table for me instead of just telling me to go find it without saying anything about where it would be.

This was in May 2024 that collecting data was already becoming difficult due to destruction of infrastructure. 2 years of siege, bombing, genocide and destruction later. At the time of this publication, 35% of buildings were destroyed in Gaza. Since then there has been occupation, demolition, constant bombing, sieges and strangulation. These are direct deaths from Israeli attacks, already at 35,000 confirmed under these conditions 2 years ago. You won’t get an “official count” higher than 70k because it hasn’t moved in over a year. Nobody is counting anymore. Do you know what that means? The type of complete breakdown and death that this requires to happen? The purposeful targeting of healthcare and rescue workers and medics. Think of all the downstream deaths, from starvation, from disease, from pre-existing disabilities. Serious estimates put it closer to 250-300k at least. There are

You seem to have cut off here, not sure if something got lost.

I was aware of the destruction of infrastructure and the targeting of aid workers, but I've struggled to stay up to date with things in the last year or so as I've had a lot of strains placed on my time available to do so. While I knew this was impacting the ability to count, I apparently overestimated the effort to incorporate other information and provide a more accurate estimate, even if it's still pretty inaccurate. I figured it was probably not exactly right but close enough for discussion purposes, but that does seem to be incorrect.

The direct war deaths have dropped considerably since the October 2025 “ceasefire”, with “only” about 500-1000 direct Palestinian deaths, however the genocide continues through deprivation and starvation and siege. Doesn’t that make Trump the “slow genocide” “harm reduction” candidate compared to the 200k+ killed under Biden’s watchful tutelage of dropping 200k tons of explosives on one of the densest populated area on Earth, with full military protection and support and supply? Leveling some 80%+ of all the buildings and slaughtering man, woman and child with your tax payer money.

I'll definitely agree that it at least gives Trump the appearance of being the harm reduction candidate, but I'm not entirely convinced Trump deserves credit for it. Trump is the one who said Israel should finish the job, who proposed the US come in and take control of Gaza after they "[move] the people out", and talked just a few months ago about how it's great real estate and wants to build skyscrapers there. Every word or action Gaza, except the fact that ceasefire started while he's in office, has pointed to him condoning or actively encouraging the ethnic cleanse. I think it's far more likely that global backlash has finally reached a point that, combined with the increasing horror of a more total ethnic cleanse than they've achieved so far, has forced them to enter a "ceasefire" where they can try to finish the job more quietly.

Now, that said, I will admit it is in line with my wish to slow things down and buy time for more effective measures. I will also reiterate that the only reason I wanted things slowed down was so that we have more time to use those more effective measures. From that perspective, the "ceasefire" is a win. It's just that given the greater context of Trump's words and actions on Gaza, I'm not convinced he deserves very much of the credit. But, like always, if you have any information that can contradict that, I'm open to reviewing it and potentially changing my mind. I won't lie, it'd be a bitter pill to swallow to admit Trump was better, but if someone can actually provide evidence for the claim, I'll accept it. I'm just hesitant to give him credit for what appears to be a coincidence to me.

Ultimately, I think it boils down to Israel started it while Biden was in office, and the opening was always going to be more violent given the event it was in response to, regardless of who in the US was in charge at the time. The very start, I think, is almost entirely Israel's fault with partial credit to the US for bolstering Israel enough to feel confident enough to do it. I wouldn't blame Trump for the opening of Gaza any more than I would Biden simply because from what I know, Israel seems to have started this independently. From there, yes, whoever was in charge should have done whatever they can to rein them in, and no, that absolutely did not happen, at least not to nearly the extent it should have, but just because Biden handled it abysmally doesn't mean Trump wouldn't have treated rock bottom as challenge to dig deeper. From what I've seen of him in every aspect of Gaza except the fact that the ceasefire happened, he's been as bad or worse. I think we'd have the ceasefire under Harris, too, at a minimum, and I'd be more confident we can pressure Harris to do more than I am about pressuring Trump.

[-] Johnny_Arson@hexbear.net 4 points 3 days ago

given the event it was in response to

The event where Israel gunned down a bunch of its own civilians with tanks and helicopters? That event?

[-] Chana@hexbear.net 2 points 3 days ago

how interesting that history started on October 7, 2023, the moment you became aware of the existence of Palestine.

[-] AHemlocksLie@lemmy.zip 1 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

I assume by absolute deaths, you mean the plain count, the raw numbers. Absolute deaths also decreased under Biden. It's hard to tell from the chart, but it looks like the proportional drop from start/inauguration is about 1/8 under Biden and somewhere between 1/8 and 1/4 for Trump, so a larger proportional decrease under Biden. As for the ceasefire, I think it's more likely that's happening because global backlash is getting to be too much and risking their longterm political support as the younger generation grows older and starts getting into office, than it is for the same Trump who told them to finish the job suddenly grew a conscious and made it his personal priority to halt the genocide.

That said, I'll try to look into issues with the chart before I bring it up to anyone else.

[-] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 5 points 4 days ago

Absolute deaths also decreased under Biden

No they didn't, you don't seem to understand what I meant when I pointed out Israel destroyed all the hospitals, the hospitals in Gaza and the health services were the only orgs counting the dead; when they were destroyed that meant there was nobody left to count the dead and as Israel intensified the genocide in 2024, it split the strip up and invaded whole cities (like Rafah)

It is ridiculous to sit there and pretend absolute death decreased under Biden because nobody was left who would count the dead or that Israel leveling whole cities somehow magically meant the people escaped, when they didn't escape when Israel was only leveling city blocks in the first few months

That's why the chart is nonsense; it's undercounting deaths and pretending Israel didn't destroy the healthcare system, which was the only system that could count deaths, meaning the chart is even worse than guessing; it's lying, intentionally or not

As for the ceasefire, I think it's more likely that's happening because global backlash is getting to be too much and risking their longterm political support as the younger generation grows older and starts getting into office, than it is for the same Trump who told them to finish the job suddenly grew a conscious and made it his personal priority to halt the genocide.

You see, you give the game away here, it doesn't matter why Trump pushed the ceasefire through; it only matters that he did and Biden didn't, but you're more concerned that the ceasefire makes Trump's prospects look better than the fact the ceasefire means less Palestinians dying every day

[-] AHemlocksLie@lemmy.zip 0 points 3 days ago

No they didn’t, you don’t seem to understand what I meant when I pointed out Israel destroyed all the hospitals, the hospitals in Gaza and the health services were the only orgs counting the dead; when they were destroyed that meant there was nobody left to count the dead and as Israel intensified the genocide in 2024, it split the strip up and invaded whole cities (like Rafah)

It is ridiculous to sit there and pretend absolute death decreased under Biden because nobody was left who would count the dead or that Israel leveling whole cities somehow magically meant the people escaped, when they didn’t escape when Israel was only leveling city blocks in the first few months

That’s why the chart is nonsense; it’s undercounting deaths and pretending Israel didn’t destroy the healthcare system, which was the only system that could count deaths, meaning the chart is even worse than guessing; it’s lying, intentionally or not

I could have been clearer when I spoke, so I guess that's my fault. You spoke on what the graph showed, so I spoke on that in response. That was not intended to be a refutation of your suggestion that the graph is incorrect. It was intended to show that I don't agree with the way you're interpreting, but I may have been misunderstanding exactly what you meant.

You see, you give the game away here, it doesn’t matter why Trump pushed the ceasefire through; it only matters that he did and Biden didn’t, but you’re more concerned that the ceasefire makes Trump’s prospects look better than the fact the ceasefire means less Palestinians dying every day

My point is that I don't think Trump pushed it through. I think Israel realized they had to clean up the appearances over there, so they started talking about a ceasefire, and Trump dove on the opportunity to take credit for it. That's not to say I think Israel is growing a conscious and stopping. I just think they've realized the optics are getting to be too bad, so they're swapping to something slower and easier to distance themselves from. This is the same Trump who said we should just move everyone out and let the US take over the area, who said Israel should just finish the job, and who, several months after the ceasefire began, talked about how Gaza is great real estate and how he wanted to build skyscrapers there. Trump is dumb as shit and even more callous, but the one thing he genuinely excels at is gaming the media cycle and making himself look good to at least enough people to keep him in power. At a glance, yeah, it looks like Trump actually went out of his way to do something right for once, but in the greater context of Trump on Gaza, it looks to me more like he just took advantage of a passing opportunity. If you've got any info that can refute that, though, I'm happy to be proven wrong.

this post was submitted on 27 May 2026
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